Andres Cova — OGILVIE

Andres Cova P ACL Angels

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%22.8%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	10	38	171	53	28	1	91%	3.5	21.1%	20.5%	0.6%	0.8%	3.08	4.33	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	10	38	171	53	28	1	91%	3.5	21.1%	20.5%	0.6%	0.8%	3.08	4.33	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	11	10	38	171	53	28	1	91%	3.5	31.0%	16.4%	14.6%	0.6%	3.08	2.86	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	4	0	8	35	11	4	1	0%	2.0	31.4%	11.4%	20.0%	2.9%	6.75	3.46	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	4	0	8	35	11	4	1	0%	2.0	31.4%	11.4%	20.0%	2.9%	6.75	3.46	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	4	0	8	35	11	4	1	0%	2.0	31.4%	11.4%	20.0%	2.9%	6.75	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	26	0	29	138	42	23	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	20.6%	2.5%	1.4%	5.22	4.51	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	26	0	29	138	42	23	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	20.6%	2.5%	1.4%	5.22	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	LAA	20	0	23	103	35	17	1	0%	1.1	34.0%	16.5%	17.5%	1.0%	4.37	2.85	—
2026	21	A RAW	LAA	6	0	7	35	7	6	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	17.1%	2.9%	5.7%	8.10	6.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAA	34	0	36	152	36	21	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.84	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAA	17	0	18	76	18	11	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	18	10	2	0%	1.0	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	113	23	0%	1.1	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		41	10	75	344	79	67	4	24%	1.8	22.9%	19.6%	3.3%	1.2%	4.30	4.31	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	27	200	913	210	179	11	24%	1.8	22.9%	19.6%	3.3%	1.2%	4.30	4.31	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andres Cova (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	22.8%	16.4%	2.9%	—	4.84	23.8%	9.8%	36	-0.41	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	87
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	84
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	84
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	83
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.01	223	81
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	81
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	80
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	80
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	80
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	21	SU	4.55	25.7%	21.3%	1.7%	.389	5.41	22.7%	0.2%	76	+0.86	2.58	155	79
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	79
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	79
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	79
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.4%	15.0%	1.13	5.08
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41