Evan Taylor — OGILVIE

Evan Taylor P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 250 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 118

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%22.5%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	9	0	12	50	19	7	1	0%	1.4	28.1%	16.5%	11.6%	2.7%	2.92	4.31	—
2022	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	9	0	12	50	19	7	1	0%	1.4	38.0%	14.0%	24.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.78	—
2023	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	46	0	54	236	70	21	2	0%	1.2	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	1.2%	2.18	3.23	—
2023	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	46	0	54	236	70	21	2	0%	1.2	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	1.2%	2.18	3.23	—
2023	23	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	46	0	54	236	70	21	2	0%	1.2	29.7%	8.9%	20.8%	0.8%	2.18	2.15	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	31	0	44	187	52	18	1	0%	1.4	21.4%	11.1%	10.3%	0.7%	2.84	3.09	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	31	0	44	187	52	18	1	0%	1.4	21.4%	11.1%	10.3%	0.7%	2.84	3.09	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	31	0	44	187	52	18	1	0%	1.4	27.8%	9.6%	18.2%	0.5%	2.84	2.27	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	52	230	65	28	1	0%	1.7	22.2%	13.8%	8.4%	0.5%	2.75	3.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	52	230	65	28	1	0%	1.7	22.2%	13.8%	8.4%	0.5%	2.75	3.24	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	52	230	65	28	1	0%	1.7	28.3%	12.2%	16.1%	0.4%	2.75	2.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	40	3	61	271	80	34	1	8%	1.5	24.0%	13.4%	10.6%	0.4%	3.12	3.01	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	40	3	61	271	80	34	1	8%	1.5	24.0%	13.4%	10.6%	0.4%	3.12	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CHC	31	2	50	216	71	28	1	6%	1.6	32.9%	13.0%	19.9%	0.5%	2.36	2.22	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CHC	9	1	11	55	9	6	0	11%	1.2	16.4%	10.9%	5.5%	0.0%	6.55	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	56	0	58	247	56	30	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.1%	10.5%	2.5%	4.46	4.48	+0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	54	0	57	239	54	29	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.6%	4.51	4.55	0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	21	0	22	93	21	11	2	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.1%	10.5%	2.5%	4.46	4.48	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	32	0	34	144	32	17	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.6%	4.51	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	235	53	28	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.6%	4.49	4.14	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	100	22	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	2.6%	4.49	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		157	3	223	974	222	122	8	2%	1.4	22.8%	12.5%	10.3%	0.8%	2.74	3.20	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	3	200	872	199	109	7	2%	1.4	22.8%	12.5%	10.3%	0.8%	2.74	3.20	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Taylor (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.5%	12.3%	2.4%	—	4.51	22.5%	10.5%	115	+0.06	—	—	—
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	85
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.39	18.9%	8.4%	53	+0.12	3.45	165	85
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	85
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	84
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	84
Kevin Chapman L 2015 · 3.36 FIP	27	SU	3.36	21.9%	11.1%	1.3%	.368	3.63	21.7%	11.5%	100	+0.27	3.01	153	84
Mason Melotakis L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	26	SU	3.58	21.9%	10.9%	1.8%	.264	5.66	12.0%	0.6%	30	+2.08	3.32	142	83
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	83
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	83
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	83
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	83
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Hunter Cervenka L 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	12.6%	1.7%	.246	4.02	23.6%	11.4%	121	+0.32	3.08	194	82
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	82
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	82
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	82
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	22.5%	12.1%	0.98	4.48
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91