Evan Taylor
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 250 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 116
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
K%22.9%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 9 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.1% | 16.5% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 2.92 | 4.37 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 9 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 38.0% | 14.0% | 24.0% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 2.78 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 46 | 0 | 54 | 236 | 70 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 1.3% | 2.18 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 46 | 0 | 54 | 236 | 70 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.7% | 8.9% | 20.8% | 0.8% | 2.18 | 2.15 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 31 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 52 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 0.8% | 2.84 | 3.12 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 31 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 52 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.8% | 9.6% | 18.2% | 0.5% | 2.84 | 2.27 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 52 | 230 | 65 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 0.4% | 2.75 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 52 | 230 | 65 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.3% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 0.4% | 2.75 | 2.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 26 | 2 | 41 | 180 | 63 | 26 | 1 | 8% | 1.6 | 28.3% | 15.9% | 12.5% | 0.7% | 2.43 | 3.08 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 76 | 328 | 97 | 42 | 5 | — | — | 29.5% | 12.9% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 3.27 | 3.62 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 33 | 0 | 34 | 146 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 32 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 54 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.02 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 92 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 2 | 203 | 883 | 208 | 114 | 8 | 1% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 0.9% | 2.57 | 3.25 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 2 | 200 | 869 | 205 | 112 | 8 | 1% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 0.9% | 2.57 | 3.25 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Taylor (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 2.4% | — | 4.38 | 22.8% | 11.9% | 100 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 90 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 86 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 85 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 84 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.40 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +1.78 | 3.12 | 142 | 84 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 84 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 84 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 83 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 83 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 83 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 82 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 81 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 81 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 81 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.71 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.16 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.45 | 3.20 | 194 | 81 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 34 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 0.99 | 4.32 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |