Evan Taylor

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 250 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+MIA	31	0	44	2.84	2.27	27.8%	9.6%	—	K 21.4% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.09
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	0	52	2.75	2.47	28.3%	12.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.24
2026	26	MIX2 levels	41	3	63	3.45	2.49	29.5%	12.1%	—	K 24.1% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.14
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	1	0	1	4.35	4.35	23.0%	12.6%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCHC	11	0	12	4.40	4.43	22.9%	12.4%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsColton Johnson (age 26) · Aaron Brown (age 27) · Ashur Tolliver (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%23.0%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	9	0	12	50	19	7	1	0%	1.4	28.1%	16.5%	11.6%	2.7%	2.92	4.31	—
2022	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	9	0	12	50	19	7	1	0%	1.4	38.0%	14.0%	24.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.78	—
2023	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	46	0	54	236	70	21	2	0%	1.2	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	1.2%	2.18	3.23	—
2023	23	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	46	0	54	236	70	21	2	0%	1.2	29.7%	8.9%	20.8%	0.8%	2.18	2.15	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	31	0	44	187	52	18	1	0%	1.4	21.4%	11.1%	10.3%	0.7%	2.84	3.09	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	31	0	44	187	52	18	1	0%	1.4	21.4%	11.1%	10.3%	0.7%	2.84	3.09	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	31	0	44	187	52	18	1	0%	1.4	27.8%	9.6%	18.2%	0.5%	2.84	2.27	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	52	230	65	28	1	0%	1.7	22.2%	13.8%	8.4%	0.5%	2.75	3.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	52	230	65	28	1	0%	1.7	22.2%	13.8%	8.4%	0.5%	2.75	3.24	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	52	230	65	28	1	0%	1.7	28.3%	12.2%	16.1%	0.4%	2.75	2.47	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	63	281	83	34	2	7%	1.5	24.1%	12.9%	11.3%	0.8%	3.45	3.14	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	63	281	83	34	2	7%	1.5	24.1%	12.9%	11.3%	0.8%	3.45	3.14	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	3	63	281	83	34	2	7%	1.5	29.5%	12.1%	17.4%	0.7%	3.45	2.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	2.2%	4.35	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	30	0	32	135	31	17	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	2.4%	4.40	4.43	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	11	0	12	51	12	6	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	2.4%	4.40	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	51	12	6	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	2.4%	4.40	4.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	100	17	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	2.4%	4.40	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		158	3	225	984	225	122	9	2%	1.4	22.8%	12.4%	10.5%	0.9%	2.84	3.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	3	200	873	200	108	8	2%	1.4	22.8%	12.4%	10.5%	0.9%	2.84	3.23	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 50 IPFIP 2.22 → 2.96 (+0.74)K% 32.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.87%	—	×0.810	26.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×1.100	14.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.46%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 13 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.74 (+0.19)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.46%	—	×0.860	15.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×0.900	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 33 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.43 (+0.79)K% 27.0% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.770	20.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.49%	—	×1.150	13.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.106	×1.250	0.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 19 IPFIP 2.22 → 2.88 (+0.66)K% 30.5% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.49%	—	×0.810	24.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.41%	—	×1.100	14.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.911	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 44 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.09 (+0.82)K% 27.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.81%	—	×0.770	21.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×1.150	11.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.53%	÷0.935	×1.250	0.72%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 54 IPFIP 2.19 → 3.23 (+1.04)K% 29.7% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.66%	—	×0.740	21.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.180	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷0.924	×1.300	1.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.19 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AJupiter Hammerheads · 12 IPFIP 2.76 → 4.31 (+1.54)K% 38.0% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.00%	—	×0.740	28.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.180	16.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.959	×1.300	2.71%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Taylor (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.0%	12.6%	2.2%	—	4.43	22.9%	10.5%	32	+0.08	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	89
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	87
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	85
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	84
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	83
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	83
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	82
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	82
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	81
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	81
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	81
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	80
Fabian Williamson L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	23.8%	9.0%	2.1%	.259	5.26	16.5%	-3.3%	54	+1.87	3.39	154	80
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	80
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	80
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	80
Scott Sauerbeck L 2000 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	23.8%	15.2%	1.1%	.344	3.44	25.1%	13.3%	182	-0.20	2.79	386	79
Jeff Belge L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	19.4%	12.3%	2.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	175	79
Keith Hessler L 2016 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	19.0%	9.3%	1.1%	.305	5.06	17.8%	5.2%	98	+1.75	3.31	228	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	23.0%	12.5%	0.89	4.37
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*