Nick Jones
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 27
LHP
6'6" / 224 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 128
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
K%19.6%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 14 | 66 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.8% | 9.1% | 19.7% | 1.5% | 5.65 | 2.65 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 14 | 66 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.8% | 9.1% | 19.7% | 1.5% | 5.65 | 2.61 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 43 | 197 | 57 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 17.9% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 4.40 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 43 | 197 | 57 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 1.0% | 4.40 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 66 | 267 | 77 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 1.8% | 3.27 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 66 | 267 | 77 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.8% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 1.5% | 3.27 | 2.83 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 20 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 2.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.32 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 20 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.2% | 2.1% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 0.93 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 36 | 3 | 53 | 246 | 57 | 26 | 7 | 8% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 5.77 | 4.76 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 36 | 3 | 53 | 246 | 57 | 26 | 7 | 8% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 5.77 | 4.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 18 | 0 | 26 | 115 | 32 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.2% | 14.2% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 5.26 | 3.73 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.80 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 96 | 411 | 90 | 47 | 11 | — | — | 21.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.51 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 51 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 0 | 102 | 431 | 85 | 48 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.58 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 94 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 3 | 226 | 987 | 220 | 119 | 18 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 1.8% | 4.42 | 3.73 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 3 | 200 | 873 | 195 | 105 | 16 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 1.8% | 4.42 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.94 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 194 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 88 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 87 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 84 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.22 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.74 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.48 | 1.79 | 186 | 84 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 83 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 83 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 83 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 82 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 81 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 81 |
| Jeff Belge L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 175 | 80 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 80 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .269 | 3.89 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.18 | 3.86 | 161 | 79 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 79 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 79 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 79 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 141 | 79 |
| Ryan Och L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .287 | 2.86 | 27.1% | 10.9% | 16 | -1.00 | 2.58 | 140 | 78 |
| Hayden Howard L 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 200 | 78 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 1.19 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |