Nick Jones — OGILVIE

Nick Jones P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 27 LHP 6'6" / 224 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%19.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	14	66	19	6	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	9.1%	19.7%	1.5%	5.65	2.65	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	14	66	19	6	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	9.1%	19.7%	1.5%	5.65	2.61	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	43	197	57	31	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	17.9%	4.4%	1.3%	4.40	4.21	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	43	197	57	31	2	0%	1.1	28.9%	15.7%	13.2%	1.0%	4.40	3.22	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	66	267	77	28	4	0%	1.3	23.0%	10.9%	12.1%	1.8%	3.27	3.53	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	66	267	77	28	4	0%	1.3	23.0%	10.9%	12.1%	1.8%	3.27	3.53	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	66	267	77	28	4	0%	1.3	28.8%	10.5%	18.4%	1.5%	3.27	2.83	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	20	0	24	96	29	2	0	0%	1.2	24.5%	2.3%	22.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.32	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	20	0	24	96	29	2	0	0%	1.2	24.5%	2.3%	22.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.32	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	20	0	24	96	29	2	0	0%	1.2	30.2%	2.1%	28.1%	0.0%	3.00	0.93	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	36	3	53	246	57	26	7	8%	1.5	18.8%	11.6%	7.1%	3.3%	5.77	4.81	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	36	3	53	246	57	26	7	8%	1.5	18.8%	11.6%	7.1%	3.3%	5.77	4.81	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	36	3	53	246	57	26	7	8%	1.5	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.8%	5.77	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	18	0	26	115	32	14	2	0%	1.4	22.2%	14.2%	8.0%	1.3%	5.26	3.73	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	18	0	26	115	32	14	2	0%	1.4	22.2%	14.2%	8.0%	1.3%	5.26	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	LAA	16	0	23	97	28	12	1	0%	1.4	28.9%	12.4%	16.5%	1.0%	3.13	2.80	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	LAA	2	0	3	18	4	2	1	0%	1.4	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	5.6%	23.62	5.68	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.78	4.78	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	32	142	37	17	3	—	—	26.3%	11.9%	14.4%	2.0%	5.17	3.94	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	57	31	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	62	0	65	274	54	30	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.91	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAA	24	0	25	106	21	11	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	34	0	36	152	30	17	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	51	28	8	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.0%	3.1%	4.83	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	92	26	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.8%	9.0%	3.1%	4.83	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		173	3	226	987	219	117	18	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	1.8%	4.42	3.74	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	3	200	873	194	104	16	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	1.8%	4.42	3.74	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	19.6%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.86	19.9%	9.0%	133	+0.08	—	—	—
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	88
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	87
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	85
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	84
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	83
Tony Cingrani L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	18.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.271	3.50	32.4%	26.1%	65	-0.69	1.68	186	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	82
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	82
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	82
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	81
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	80
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	80
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	80
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	79
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	79
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	79
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	78
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	78
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.8%	10.8%	1.17	4.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04