Junior Ciprian — OGILVIE

Junior Ciprian P Visalia Rawhide

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%19.6%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3550

CMD3050

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	3	1	3	19	2	4	0	33%	1.0	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	0.0%	9.00	4.88	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	3	1	3	19	2	4	0	33%	1.0	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	0.0%	9.00	4.88	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	3	1	3	19	2	4	0	33%	1.0	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	0.0%	9.00	5.77	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	3	25	110	32	14	0	27%	2.3	19.8%	15.9%	3.9%	0.0%	3.60	3.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	3	25	110	32	14	0	27%	2.3	19.8%	15.9%	3.9%	0.0%	3.60	3.44	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	11	3	25	110	32	14	0	27%	2.3	29.1%	12.7%	16.4%	0.0%	3.60	2.22	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	55	236	51	31	4	71%	3.2	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	2.8%	4.28	5.38	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	55	236	51	31	4	71%	3.2	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	2.8%	4.28	5.38	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	55	236	51	31	4	71%	3.2	21.6%	13.1%	8.5%	1.7%	4.28	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	22	22	104	425	112	51	8	100%	4.7	19.7%	14.0%	5.7%	2.4%	3.36	4.54	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	22	22	104	425	112	51	8	100%	4.7	19.7%	14.0%	5.7%	2.4%	3.36	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	ARI	15	15	72	286	80	31	6	100%	4.8	28.0%	10.8%	17.1%	2.1%	2.76	3.26	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	ARI	7	7	33	139	32	20	2	100%	4.7	23.0%	14.4%	8.6%	1.4%	4.68	3.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	107	453	95	59	13	100%	5.1	20.9%	13.0%	7.9%	2.8%	5.05	4.92	-0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	111	470	102	54	13	100%	5.3	21.7%	11.6%	10.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.65	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	114	482	107	51	13	100%	5.7	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.47	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	116	488	111	49	14	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	2.8%	4.46	4.37	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	116	488	112	49	14	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.0%	12.8%	2.8%	4.39	4.34	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	114	480	110	48	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.8%	4.38	4.38	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	110	466	106	48	14	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	105	445	100	47	14	100%	5.9	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.1%	4.53	4.60	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	99	418	93	45	14	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.77	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	92	390	85	43	14	100%	6.2	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.5%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	53	224	47	29	6	100%	5.3	20.9%	13.0%	7.9%	2.7%	4.96	4.83	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	81	342	74	40	9	100%	5.4	21.7%	11.6%	10.2%	2.7%	4.71	4.57	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	95	401	89	43	11	100%	5.6	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	2.6%	4.51	4.39	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	102	431	98	43	11	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	2.6%	4.38	4.29	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	105	443	101	44	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	10.0%	12.8%	2.6%	4.31	4.26	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	106	448	102	45	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.7%	4.29	4.29	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	103	435	99	45	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.34	4.37	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	100	422	95	44	12	100%	5.9	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.44	4.51	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	94	397	88	43	12	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.8%	11.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.67	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	88	372	81	41	12	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.3%	4.75	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	159	927	3913	874	417	109	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.7%	11.7%	2.8%	4.49	4.10	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	90	24	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.7%	11.7%	2.8%	4.49	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		53	38	187	790	143	119	17	72%	3.5	18.1%	15.1%	3.1%	2.1%	3.75	4.65	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	845	153	127	18	72%	3.5	18.1%	15.1%	3.1%	2.1%	3.75	4.65	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Ciprian (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	19.6%	15.3%	2.9%	—	4.68	21.7%	10.0%	333	-0.67	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	91
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	89
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	89
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	84
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	82
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	81
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	81
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	81
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	81
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	81
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	81
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	102	22.2%	10.9%	1.14	4.64
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98