Junior Ciprian
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134124vR 115
ERA5.08
FIP5.08
K%19.6%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%6.6%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 21.1% | -10.5% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 4.88 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 21.1% | -10.5% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 5.77 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 11 | 3 | 25 | 110 | 32 | 14 | 0 | 27% | 2.3 | 19.8% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 11 | 3 | 25 | 110 | 32 | 14 | 0 | 27% | 2.3 | 29.1% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 2.22 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 55 | 236 | 51 | 31 | 4 | 71% | 3.2 | 15.2% | 16.2% | -1.0% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 5.66 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 55 | 236 | 51 | 31 | 4 | 71% | 3.2 | 21.6% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 4.28 | 3.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 15 | 15 | 72 | 286 | 80 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.7% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 2.76 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 42 | 177 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.6% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.6% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.12 | 5.12 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 114 | 463 | 115 | 54 | 11 | — | — | 24.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 44 | 186 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 46 | 193 | 42 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 45 | 192 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 46 | 265 | 1119 | 254 | 110 | 33 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.03 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 83 | 25 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 31 | 154 | 651 | 119 | 96 | 16 | 67% | 3.4 | 18.2% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 4.74 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 40 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 125 | 20 | 67% | 3.4 | 18.2% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Junior Ciprian (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 19.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.53 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 137 | -0.55 | — | — | — |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.48 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.44 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 148 | -0.04 | 2.88 | 245 | 91 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 89 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 88 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 88 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 86 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 86 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 86 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 86 |
| Jared Lyons R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 85 |
| Christian Roa R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 84 |
| Kamdyn Perry R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.18 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 3.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.18 | 123 | 84 |
| Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 83 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 83 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 82 |
| Dominic Pipkin R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.61 | 19.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | .329 | 5.46 | 16.5% | 0.7% | 93 | +0.85 | 4.60 | 266 | 82 |
| Mac Sceroler R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.22 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 200 | -0.24 | 3.81 | 275 | 82 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 82 |
| Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 82 |
| Jeremy Lee R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .318 | 5.28 | 11.2% | -0.5% | 46 | +1.22 | 4.06 | 125 | 82 |
| Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 46 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 1.10 | 4.53 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |