Junior Ciprian

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#243ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Arizona R…	11	3	25	3.60	2.22	29.1%	12.7%	—	K 19.8% · BB 15.9% · FIP 3.44
2025	20	MIX2 levels	17	12	55	4.28	3.89	21.6%	13.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 16.2% · FIP 5.38
2026	21	MIX2 levels	22	22	104	3.36	3.42	26.4%	12.0%	—	K 19.7% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	22	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.08	5.08	20.6%	14.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBARI	11	11	61	4.77	4.67	21.5%	12.3%	0.5
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBARI	16	16	87	4.57	4.47	22.1%	11.1%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 6.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsKyle Bradish (age 22) · Jimmy Endersby (age 23) · Josh Bostick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%20.6%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$15M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	3	1	3	19	2	4	0	33%	1.0	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	0.0%	9.00	4.88	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	3	1	3	19	2	4	0	33%	1.0	10.5%	21.1%	-10.5%	0.0%	9.00	5.77	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	3	25	110	32	14	0	27%	2.3	19.8%	15.9%	3.9%	0.0%	3.60	3.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	3	25	110	32	14	0	27%	2.3	19.8%	15.9%	3.9%	0.0%	3.60	3.44	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	11	3	25	110	32	14	0	27%	2.3	29.1%	12.7%	16.4%	0.0%	3.60	2.22	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	55	236	51	31	4	71%	3.2	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	2.8%	4.28	5.38	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	55	236	51	31	4	71%	3.2	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	2.8%	4.28	5.38	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	55	236	51	31	4	71%	3.2	21.6%	13.1%	8.5%	1.7%	4.28	3.89	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	104	425	112	51	8	100%	4.7	19.7%	14.0%	5.7%	2.4%	3.36	4.54	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	104	425	112	51	8	100%	4.7	19.7%	14.0%	5.7%	2.4%	3.36	4.54	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	104	425	112	51	8	100%	4.7	26.4%	12.0%	14.4%	1.9%	3.36	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	14.2%	6.5%	2.8%	5.08	5.08	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	124	525	113	65	15	100%	5.4	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.75	+0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	124	525	116	58	15	100%	5.6	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	2.8%	4.65	4.55	+1.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	92	389	87	40	11	100%	5.8	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.8%	4.50	4.42	+1.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	92	386	88	40	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.39	+1.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	89	376	85	39	11	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.3%	12.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.43	+1.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	358	81	38	10	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.51	+0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	79	333	74	36	10	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.64	+0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	72	302	66	33	10	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.0%	10.9%	3.3%	4.73	4.82	+0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	64	271	59	31	10	100%	5.8	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	3.5%	4.91	5.02	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	61	258	55	32	7	100%	5.5	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	2.6%	4.77	4.67	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	87	367	81	41	10	100%	5.4	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.57	4.47	+0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	75	317	71	33	8	100%	5.8	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.6%	4.42	4.34	+0.9
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	80	338	77	35	9	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.6%	4.35	4.31	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	80	338	77	35	9	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.34	4.34	+0.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	78	329	74	35	9	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.42	+0.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	73	308	69	33	9	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.55	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	67	283	62	31	9	100%	6.1	22.0%	11.0%	10.9%	3.1%	4.63	4.72	+0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	56	29	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.80	4.91	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	113	663	2798	622	303	78	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.13	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	91	24	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		53	38	187	790	143	119	17	72%	3.5	18.1%	15.1%	3.1%	2.1%	3.75	4.65	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	41	200	845	153	127	18	72%	3.5	18.1%	15.1%	3.1%	2.1%	3.75	4.65	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 72 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.47 (+1.21)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.97%	—	×0.740	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×1.180	12.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.10%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 33 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.69 (+0.92)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.02%	—	×0.770	17.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.39%	—	×1.150	16.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.80%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL D-backs · 39 IPFIP 4.40 → 6.15 (+1.75)K% 19.5% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.53%	—	×0.680	13.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.02%	—	×1.250	16.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷0.862	×1.400	3.84%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 4.40 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 16 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.43 (+0.90)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.87%	—	×0.740	19.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.43%	—	×1.180	15.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.283	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Arizona Red · 25 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.44 (+1.19)K% 29.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.09%	—	×0.680	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.73%	—	×1.250	15.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.165	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Ciprian (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.59	22.0%	10.7%	341	-0.49	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	88
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	87
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	84
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	83
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	82
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	82
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	82
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	82
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	82
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	81
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	81
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	81
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	95	22.0%	11.4%	1.13	4.68
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64