Xavier Mitchell

P ACL Angels

Age 21 LHP ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	ROKLAA	9	9	24	9.99	4.25	31.7%	18.3%	—	K 21.6% · BB 22.8% · FIP 6.00
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	7	7	36	5.63	5.63	22.8%	19.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	3	3	18	5.27	5.12	23.7%	16.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsLuke Fox (age 22) · Liam Sullivan (age 21) · Jeremy Wu-Yelland (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%22.8%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%3.7%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—50

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	9	9	24	126	40	23	3	100%	2.7	21.6%	22.8%	-1.2%	3.3%	9.99	6.00	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	9	9	24	126	40	23	3	100%	2.7	21.6%	22.8%	-1.2%	3.3%	9.99	6.00	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	9	9	24	126	40	23	3	100%	2.7	31.7%	18.3%	13.5%	2.4%	9.99	4.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	7	7	36	152	35	29	5	100%	5.1	22.8%	19.1%	3.7%	3.0%	5.63	5.63	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	38	158	38	25	5	100%	5.4	23.7%	16.0%	7.7%	2.9%	5.27	5.12	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	3	3	18	76	18	12	2	100%	6.0	23.7%	16.0%	7.7%	2.9%	5.27	5.12	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	78	18	12	2	100%	4.6	23.7%	16.0%	7.7%	2.9%	5.27	4.74	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	195	130	22	100%	5.1	23.7%	16.0%	7.7%	2.9%	5.27	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		9	9	24	126	27	29	4	100%	2.7	21.6%	22.8%	-1.2%	3.3%	9.99	6.00	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	74	200	1036	224	236	35	100%	2.7	21.6%	22.8%	-1.2%	3.3%	9.99	6.00	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Mitchell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	22.8%	19.1%	3.0%	—	5.12	23.7%	7.7%	38	-0.51	—	—	—
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	90
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	82
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	78
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	77
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	76
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	76
Joe Miller L 2022 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	17.4%	13.9%	2.0%	.375	4.22	16.0%	7.7%	273	-0.26	3.76	355	75
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	74
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	73
Pablo Aldonis L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	21	SP	4.44	18.7%	15.6%	1.7%	.240	3.01	21.7%	12.9%	75	-1.43	1.89	135	72
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	71
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	70
Jacob Schlesener L 2017 · 5.08 FIP	20	SP	5.08	20.2%	23.2%	1.4%	.279	7.35	15.4%	-23.6%	17	+2.27	5.08	132	70
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	70
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	70
DJ Herz L 2022 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP	4.57	26.4%	18.9%	2.4%	.246	3.70	26.2%	12.9%	222	-0.87	3.54	423	69
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	69
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.18	25.3%	7.3%	154	-0.48	2.93	284	68
Christian Oppor L 2024 · 4.57 FIP	20	SP-	4.57	18.4%	20.6%	0.8%	.389	4.94	21.1%	0.8%	123	+0.37	3.96	161	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	23.3%	17.5%	1.15	5.45
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*