Joe Miller
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
LHP
5'10" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.8%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%10.5%
IP100
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 5 | 4 | 12 | 57 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 17.4% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 5.11 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 18 | 12 | 69 | 318 | 78 | 31 | 4 | 18.2% | 11.5% | 1.4% | 3.93 | 3.78 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 25 | 22 | 99 | 412 | 79 | 23 | 10 | 14.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.71 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 26 | 23 | 116 | 487 | 101 | 35 | 10 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 2.95 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 3 | 3 | 11 | 58 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 19.6% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 7.94 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 79 | 35 | 12 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 111 | 479 | 93 | 42 | 13 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 83 | 36 | 13 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 104 | 437 | 84 | 36 | 13 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 83 | 36 | 13 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 80 | 35 | 13 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 76 | 34 | 13 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 72 | 34 | 13 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 67 | 33 | 12 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 63 | 32 | 12 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 65 | 28 | 12 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.86 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 59 | 27 | 11 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.99 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 64 | 308 | 1332 | 217 | 118 | 34 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 4.26 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 42 | 200 | 866 | 141 | 77 | 22 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 4.26 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 308 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 94 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 90 |
| Marco Tovar L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 89 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 89 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 88 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 88 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 88 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 87 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 86 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.91 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .318 | 3.57 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.34 | 3.08 | 681 | 86 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 86 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 85 |
| John Gast L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 85 |
| Nick Additon L 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.18 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 217 | 85 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 85 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 85 |
| James Gillheeney L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 84 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 83 |
| Kyle Hald L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 83 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .338 | 3.68 | 24.4% | 21.0% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.29 | 412 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$7M |
| Totals | $11M | $13M | +$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.