Joe Miller
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 26
LHP
5'10" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115124vR 133
ERA5.05
FIP5.05
K%14.0%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%5.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 12 | 57 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 80% | 2.5 | 17.4% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 5.11 | 4.29 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 4 | 12 | 57 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 80% | 2.5 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 5.11 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 18 | 12 | 69 | 318 | 78 | 31 | 4 | 67% | 3.8 | 18.2% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 3.93 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 18 | 12 | 69 | 318 | 78 | 31 | 4 | 67% | 3.8 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 14.8% | 1.3% | 3.93 | 2.94 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 99 | 412 | 79 | 23 | 10 | 88% | 4.0 | 14.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 3.71 | 4.76 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 99 | 412 | 79 | 23 | 10 | 88% | 4.0 | 19.2% | 5.6% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 3.71 | 3.51 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 116 | 487 | 101 | 35 | 10 | 88% | 4.5 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 2.95 | 4.54 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 116 | 487 | 101 | 35 | 10 | 88% | 4.5 | 20.7% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 2.95 | 3.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 13 | 12 | 46 | 205 | 51 | 25 | 3 | 92% | 3.5 | 19.8% | 13.2% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 3.94 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 110 | 479 | 89 | 47 | 12 | — | — | 18.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 43 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 44 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 42 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 5.07 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 5.07 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 19 | 112 | 474 | 73 | 41 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 4.69 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 73 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 73 | 342 | 1479 | 246 | 137 | 39 | 84% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 3.58 | 4.34 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 43 | 200 | 865 | 144 | 80 | 23 | 84% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 3.58 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Miller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.06 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 200 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 85 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 80 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 80 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.47 | 11.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .307 | 4.10 | 14.7% | 6.8% | 342 | -0.37 | 3.80 | 412 | 79 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2029 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 79 |
| Jordan Fowler L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.30 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 124 | 77 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 77 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.55 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .283 | 3.99 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.56 | 3.78 | 311 | 77 |
| Kyle Hald L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.17 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 124 | 77 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 75 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 75 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 75 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 75 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.13 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 297 | 75 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .316 | 4.02 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 115 | -0.01 | 4.02 | 235 | 75 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 75 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.83 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 273 | 74 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 74 |
| Matt Walker L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 74 |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 14.9% | 8.5% | 1.25 | 5.03 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |