Joe Miller — OGILVIE

Joe Miller P Erie SeaWolves

Age 26 LHP 5'10" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%14.0%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	12	57	12	6	1	80%	2.5	17.4%	13.9%	3.5%	2.0%	5.11	4.48	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	12	57	12	6	1	80%	2.5	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	1.8%	5.11	3.67	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	18	12	69	318	78	31	4	67%	3.8	18.2%	11.5%	6.6%	1.3%	3.93	3.76	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	18	12	69	318	78	31	4	67%	3.8	18.2%	11.5%	6.6%	1.3%	3.93	3.76	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	18	12	69	318	78	31	4	67%	3.8	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	1.3%	3.93	2.94	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	99	412	79	23	10	88%	4.0	14.6%	6.4%	8.1%	3.4%	3.71	4.53	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	99	412	79	23	10	88%	4.0	14.6%	6.4%	8.1%	3.4%	3.71	4.53	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	99	412	79	23	10	88%	4.0	19.2%	5.6%	13.6%	2.4%	3.71	3.51	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	116	487	101	35	10	88%	4.5	16.0%	8.0%	7.9%	2.7%	2.95	4.22	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	116	487	101	35	10	88%	4.5	16.0%	8.0%	7.9%	2.7%	2.95	4.22	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	116	487	101	35	10	88%	4.5	20.7%	7.2%	13.6%	2.1%	2.95	3.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	20	82	362	87	38	7	87%	3.6	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	1.9%	3.95	3.96	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	20	82	362	87	38	7	87%	3.6	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	1.9%	3.95	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	DET	1	0	1	5	2	1	0	0%	0.7	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	13.50	2.26	—
2026	26	A RAW	DET	1	0	2	9	4	1	0	0%	2.0	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.75	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	DET	3	2	7	34	7	4	2	67%	2.4	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	5.9%	4.91	6.08	—
2026	26	AA RAW	DET	18	18	72	314	74	32	5	100%	4.0	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	1.6%	3.88	3.27	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	6	27	4	2	1	100%	6.4	14.0%	8.1%	5.9%	2.9%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	88	389	91	40	8	—	—	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	2.0%	4.02	4.03	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	103	434	64	35	13	100%	6.0	14.8%	8.1%	6.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.90	0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	100	421	64	35	13	100%	5.9	15.2%	8.2%	6.9%	3.1%	4.90	4.94	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	95	402	61	34	13	100%	6.0	15.3%	8.4%	6.8%	3.2%	4.97	5.03	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	90	378	57	33	13	100%	6.0	15.1%	8.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.10	5.19	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	39	165	24	13	5	100%	6.5	14.8%	8.1%	6.7%	2.9%	4.82	4.83	0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	59	249	38	21	7	100%	5.9	15.2%	8.2%	6.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.87	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	67	283	43	24	9	100%	6.1	15.3%	8.4%	6.8%	3.1%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	70	296	45	26	10	100%	5.8	15.1%	8.7%	6.4%	3.3%	5.02	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	236	995	150	84	31	100%	6.0	15.1%	8.4%	6.7%	3.1%	4.90	4.58	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	127	71	26	100%	6.0	15.1%	8.4%	6.7%	3.1%	4.90	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		97	81	378	1636	274	151	39	84%	3.9	16.8%	9.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.62	4.16	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	43	200	865	145	80	21	84%	3.9	16.8%	9.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.62	4.16	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	14.0%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.95	15.1%	6.8%	298	+0.02	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	86
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	80
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	80
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	80
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	78
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	77
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	77
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	76
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	76
John Anderson L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP-	4.12	11.0%	8.5%	1.6%	.316	4.23	14.3%	5.6%	115	+0.11	4.12	235	76
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	75
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	75
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	75
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	74
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	74
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	91	14.9%	8.3%	1.22	4.96
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44