Levi Sterling

P Bradenton Marauders

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 202 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.7 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP44ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	MIX2 levels	12	9	34	6.09	3.89	21.0%	14.2%	—	K 13.6% · BB 17.5% · FIP 5.19
2026	19	MIX2 levels	24	24	109	4.56	3.98	28.9%	10.0%	—	K 21.5% · BB 11.8% · FIP 5.45
2027PROJ	20	MLBPIT	28	28	129	5.05	5.05	21.3%	11.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBPIT	14	14	66	4.72	4.65	21.8%	10.5%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBPIT	20	20	103	4.51	4.39	22.7%	9.4%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$5M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command55FB velo49

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 80%

CompsJosh Bostick (age 22) · Trevor Martin (age 22) · Patrick Reilly (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%21.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD2555

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$6M	+$3M
2035	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
2036	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$32M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	13.6%	17.5%	-3.9%	1.9%	6.09	5.19	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	13.6%	17.5%	-3.9%	1.9%	6.09	5.19	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	21.0%	14.2%	6.8%	1.2%	6.09	3.89	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	4.9%	4.56	5.45	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	4.9%	4.56	5.45	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	28.9%	10.0%	18.9%	3.8%	4.56	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PIT	28	28	129	545	116	65	19	100%	4.6	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	3.4%	5.05	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	135	570	124	60	19	100%	4.8	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.86	4.79	+0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	142	599	136	56	19	100%	5.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.2%	4.64	4.52	+0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	147	622	145	54	20	100%	5.3	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.2%	4.46	4.34	+1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	151	637	152	53	20	100%	5.6	23.9%	8.2%	15.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.22	+1.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	153	645	157	52	20	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.1%	4.22	4.15	+1.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	153	645	158	51	20	100%	6.1	24.5%	8.0%	16.5%	3.1%	4.17	4.13	+1.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	150	635	155	51	20	100%	6.0	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	3.2%	4.17	4.17	+1.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	146	616	150	50	20	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.2%	16.2%	3.3%	4.22	4.25	+1.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	139	589	142	50	20	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.4%	4.32	4.38	+0.8
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	131	553	131	48	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.0%	3.6%	4.47	4.56	+0.5
2038	31	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	122	516	120	47	20	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.8%	4.65	4.76	+0.2
2039	32	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	113	477	109	45	20	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	4.1%	4.85	4.99	-0.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	104	438	98	43	19	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.4%	5.08	5.24	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	66	279	61	29	9	100%	4.7	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.65	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	103	435	99	41	13	100%	5.2	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.51	4.39	+0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	124	524	122	45	15	100%	5.4	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.21	+0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	134	566	135	47	16	100%	5.6	23.9%	8.2%	15.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.09	+1.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	140	591	143	47	17	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	2.9%	4.09	4.02	+1.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	142	600	147	48	17	100%	5.9	24.5%	8.0%	16.5%	2.9%	4.04	4.00	+1.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	143	604	148	49	18	100%	6.0	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.04	4.04	+1.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	139	587	143	48	18	100%	6.0	24.3%	8.2%	16.2%	3.0%	4.09	4.12	+1.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	132	557	134	47	18	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.2%	4.18	4.24	+0.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	124	524	124	46	17	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.7%	15.0%	3.3%	4.32	4.41	+0.5
2038	31	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	116	490	114	44	17	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.6%	4.49	4.60	+0.2
2039	32	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	107	452	103	43	17	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.8%	4.68	4.82	-0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	99	418	94	41	17	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.0%	4.90	5.06	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		272	272	1572	6636	1570	576	210	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.2%	4.31	3.94	+18.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	200	73	27	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.2%	4.31	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		36	33	143	612	119	81	25	92%	4.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.38	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	858	167	114	35	92%	4.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.38	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Levi Sterling (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	21.3%	11.9%	3.4%	—	4.54	22.6%	13.1%	424	-0.51	—	—	—
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	87
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	86
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	85
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	84
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	84
Victor Lizarraga R 2024 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP	4.18	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.61	15.1%	0.9%	179	+1.43	3.82	494	83
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	82
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	82
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	81
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	81
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	80
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.62	21.2%	11.3%	364	+0.67	3.95	569	80
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	80
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	80
Ty Madden R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP	4.90	20.8%	8.6%	4.5%	.258	4.78	23.3%	13.4%	238	-0.12	4.39	458	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.6	137	23.4%	9.0%	1.32	4.51
Carl Erskine ('48-'59, 19 WAR*)	8.6	143	23.7%*	8.4%*	1.30*	4.19*
Floyd Bannister ('77-'92, 28 WAR*)	11.9	159	24.7%*	8.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Ted Lilly ('13)	9.9	142	20.0%	7.9%	1.33	4.14