Marcus Phillips — OGILVIE

Marcus Phillips P Greenville Drive

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 246 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%22.3%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4045

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	19	18	62	291	73	51	8	95%	3.2	19.3%	20.2%	-0.8%	3.4%	6.71	5.91	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	19	18	62	291	73	51	8	95%	3.2	19.3%	20.2%	-0.8%	3.4%	6.71	5.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	BOS	19	18	62	291	73	51	8	95%	3.2	25.1%	17.5%	7.6%	2.7%	6.71	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	63	265	62	38	8	100%	5.7	23.2%	14.4%	8.8%	3.0%	5.08	4.98	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	271	65	36	8	100%	5.8	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.74	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	65	275	66	34	8	100%	5.9	24.2%	12.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.60	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	65	275	67	33	8	100%	5.9	24.4%	12.1%	12.2%	2.9%	4.62	4.57	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	271	66	33	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	12.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	31	131	30	19	4	100%	5.2	23.2%	14.4%	8.8%	2.9%	5.04	4.94	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	45	190	45	25	5	100%	5.6	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.82	4.70	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	54	27	6	100%	5.9	24.2%	12.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.56	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	59	29	7	100%	5.7	24.4%	12.1%	12.2%	2.9%	4.58	4.53	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	60	30	7	100%	5.8	24.3%	12.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.57	4.57	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	244	1029	248	130	30	100%	5.8	24.1%	12.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.70	4.25	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	204	107	25	100%	5.8	24.1%	12.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.70	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		19	18	62	291	56	59	10	95%	3.2	19.3%	20.2%	-0.8%	3.4%	6.71	5.91	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	58	200	944	182	190	32	95%	3.2	19.3%	20.2%	-0.8%	3.4%	6.71	5.91	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcus Phillips (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	22.3%	16.5%	3.0%	—	4.77	23.8%	10.5%	192	-0.58	—	—	—
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	85
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	84
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	83
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	81
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	80
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	80
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	79
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	79
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	79
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	79
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	78
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	78
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	78
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	77
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	23.8%	13.2%	1.15	4.83
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84