Marcus Phillips — OGILVIE

Marcus Phillips P Greenville Drive

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 246 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%22.0%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL4045

CMD—40

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Greenville Drive	14	13	46	213	52	37	6	93%	3.3	18.8%	20.0%	-1.2%	3.5%	6.26	5.98	-0.8
ROS	22	MLB	BOS	10	10	52	222	49	31	7	100%	5.2	22.0%	13.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.03	5.03	-0.3
ROS	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	13.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.04	5.04	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	98	435	101	68	13	—	—	23.2%	15.6%	7.6%	2.9%	5.60	5.47	-0.1
2026 FULL	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	22.0%	13.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.04	4.66	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	BOS	10	10	54	230	53	29	7	100%	5.5	22.8%	12.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.84	4.76	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	BOS	10	10	56	236	55	27	7	100%	5.6	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.58	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	BOS	10	10	57	239	57	26	7	100%	5.7	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.9%	4.55	4.48	+0.0
2030	26	MLB	BOS	9	9	57	239	57	26	7	100%	6.3	24.0%	11.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.45	+0.1
2031	27	MLB	BOS	9	9	56	236	57	26	7	100%	6.2	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2032	28	MLB	BOS	9	9	54	228	55	26	7	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.57	-0.0
2033	29	MLB	BOS	9	9	52	218	52	25	7	100%	5.7	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.71	-0.1
2034	30	MLB	BOS	8	8	49	205	48	24	7	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.7%	11.5%	3.4%	4.79	4.88	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	BOS	5	5	27	114	26	14	3	100%	5.4	22.8%	12.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.85	4.77	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	BOS	7	7	39	165	39	19	5	100%	5.6	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.68	4.59	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	BOS	8	8	46	194	46	22	6	100%	5.8	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.9%	4.56	4.49	+0.0
2030	26	MLB	BOS	8	8	49	207	50	23	6	100%	6.1	24.0%	11.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.46	+0.1
2031	27	MLB	BOS	8	8	50	211	51	23	6	100%	6.2	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2032	28	MLB	BOS	8	8	50	211	50	24	7	100%	6.2	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	-0.0
2033	29	MLB	BOS	8	8	48	203	48	23	7	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	-0.1
2034	30	MLB	BOS	8	8	46	194	45	23	7	100%	5.8	23.3%	11.7%	11.5%	3.4%	4.80	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			60	60	356	1501	355	171	46	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.24	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	200	96	26	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.24	+2.7
Career	—			14	13	46	213	40	43	8	93%	3.3	18.8%	20.0%	-1.2%	3.5%	6.26	5.98	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—			61	57	200	926	174	185	33	93%	3.3	18.8%	20.0%	-1.2%	3.5%	6.26	5.98	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcus Phillips (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	22.0%	13.8%	3.0%	—	4.60	23.4%	11.7%	167	-0.43	—	—	—
Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	87
James Proctor R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.0%	15.2%	1.6%	.277	4.35	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.33	4.02	109	86
Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.85	19.2%	9.8%	132	-0.47	3.70	192	86
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	85
Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	84
Kohl Franklin R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	22	SP	5.37	17.8%	14.6%	3.5%	.320	5.45	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.08	5.37	174	84
TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	83
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.91	439	83
Dane Acker R 2027 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	19.3%	15.2%	3.7%	.284	4.44	20.3%	8.3%	215	-1.00	4.23	257	83
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	83
Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	82
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	82
Winyer Chourio R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	23.5%	16.3%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	156	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	82
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	20.1%	15.3%	1.9%	.345	3.85	19.6%	10.9%	164	-0.55	3.27	218	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	82
Will Bednar R 2026 · 5.57 FIP	22	SP	5.57	20.5%	14.1%	4.4%	.173	4.70	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.87	3.32	172	82
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	81
Alex McFarlane R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	4.02	20.5%	6.2%	108	-0.89	3.64	159	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	54	23.4%	11.7%	1.18	4.67
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Brad Boxberger ('23)	8	43	27.1%	11.7%	1.17	3.86
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19