Will Watson
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
K%22.9%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 3.38 | 6.06 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 3.38 | 5.72 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 23 | 121 | 499 | 142 | 58 | 8 | 82% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 2.60 | 4.19 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 23 | 121 | 499 | 142 | 58 | 8 | 82% | 4.3 | 28.5% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 1.6% | 2.60 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 6 | 6 | 20 | 101 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 3.3 | 15.2% | 13.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 8.55 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 85 | 375 | 82 | 48 | 11 | — | — | 21.8% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 5.62 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 143 | 71 | 17 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 147 | 619 | 147 | 66 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 147 | 619 | 147 | 65 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.33 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 144 | 610 | 145 | 64 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 140 | 592 | 140 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 134 | 565 | 132 | 62 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 126 | 531 | 122 | 60 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 98 | 414 | 98 | 44 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 118 | 52 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 123 | 55 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.7% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 125 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 120 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 113 | 55 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 129 | 129 | 765 | 3231 | 760 | 351 | 95 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 92 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 29 | 144 | 610 | 127 | 80 | 16 | 81% | 4.0 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.44 | 4.42 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 40 | 200 | 847 | 177 | 111 | 22 | 81% | 4.0 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.44 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.39 | 23.6% | 12.7% | 438 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Patrick Reilly R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 86 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 84 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.18 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 219 | +0.57 | 3.61 | 428 | 83 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 3.76 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.91 | 2.15 | 702 | 83 |
| Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.71 | 23.4% | 0.9% | 72 | +0.76 | 3.49 | 303 | 82 |
| Ty Madden R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.42 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | .304 | 5.61 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 179 | +1.19 | 4.42 | 420 | 82 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 81 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.91 | 13.7% | 2.0% | 38 | +0.67 | 4.24 | 167 | 81 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.67 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 112 | +0.76 | 3.67 | 213 | 81 |
| Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 81 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 81 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.01 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .288 | 6.17 | 19.4% | 1.6% | 168 | +2.16 | 4.01 | 412 | 81 |
| Spencer Arrighetti R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .277 | 4.13 | 25.1% | 13.8% | 277 | +0.09 | 3.84 | 508 | 80 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .314 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 3.9% | 162 | +0.47 | 4.22 | 373 | 80 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.97 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.14 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 169 | -0.83 | 4.07 | 408 | 79 |
| Joey Murray R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.62 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .285 | 6.05 | 20.0% | 4.6% | 21 | +2.43 | 3.62 | 170 | 79 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.09 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .280 | 4.70 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | -0.39 | 4.44 | 326 | 79 |
| Will Schomberg R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 15.6% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.84 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 90 | -1.16 | 3.84 | 206 | 79 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.50 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.38 | 4.09 | 738 | 79 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 140 | 23.5% | 11.2% | 1.12 | 4.50 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |