Will Watson
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
+1.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.0 · 2029
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.6%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 28 | 23 | 121 | 499 | 142 | 58 | 8 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 2.1% | 2.60 | 4.13 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 3 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 15.6% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 4.09 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 116 | 57 | 14 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 131 | 559 | 126 | 62 | 15 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 137 | 60 | 16 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 152 | 62 | 18 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.22 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 160 | 64 | 19 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 163 | 65 | 19 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 162 | 65 | 19 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 158 | 64 | 19 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 151 | 63 | 19 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 145 | 62 | 19 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 137 | 60 | 18 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 129 | 58 | 18 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 121 | 57 | 18 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 112 | 54 | 17 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 103 | 52 | 17 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 26 | 135 | 561 | 120 | 72 | 13 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 2.73 | 4.19 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 39 | 200 | 831 | 178 | 107 | 19 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 2.73 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.24 | 23.6% | 13.8% | 451 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 95 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 90 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.05 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .288 | 6.14 | 19.4% | 1.6% | 168 | +2.09 | 4.05 | 412 | 90 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 90 |
| Ty Madden R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .304 | 5.21 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 134 | +0.68 | 4.53 | 375 | 89 |
| Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 1.9% | .275 | 5.49 | 23.1% | 0.8% | 18 | +1.63 | 3.46 | 249 | 89 |
| Riley Gowens R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 89 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 88 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 88 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 88 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 88 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 88 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 87 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 87 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 87 |
| Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .267 | 4.04 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 200 | -0.32 | 3.21 | 670 | 87 |
| Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.40 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 1.3% | .286 | 4.14 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 219 | +0.74 | 3.40 | 428 | 86 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.92 | 119 | 86 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 86 |
| George Klassen R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 196 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$17M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.8 | $17M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.7 | $17M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.5 | $15M | +$8M |
| Totals | $20M | $103M | +$84M | ||