Will Watson — OGILVIE

Will Watson P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%22.9%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD4050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	3	0	1	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	10.0%	3.38	6.06	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	3	0	1	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	10.0%	3.38	6.06	—
2024	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	3	0	1	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	10.0%	3.38	5.72	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	121	499	142	58	8	82%	4.3	21.8%	13.4%	8.4%	2.1%	2.60	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	121	499	142	58	8	82%	4.3	21.8%	13.4%	8.4%	2.1%	2.60	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	121	499	142	58	8	82%	4.3	28.5%	11.6%	16.8%	1.6%	2.60	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	13	13	37	173	35	19	5	100%	2.8	15.5%	13.3%	2.2%	3.4%	7.05	5.34	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	13	13	37	173	35	19	5	100%	2.8	15.5%	13.3%	2.2%	3.4%	7.05	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	NYM	3	3	6	22	4	2	0	100%	2.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.72	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYM	1	1	2	10	4	0	1	100%	2.3	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	10.0%	11.57	5.21	—
2026	23	AA RAW	NYM	9	9	29	141	27	17	4	100%	3.2	19.1%	12.1%	7.1%	2.8%	8.16	4.57	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	13	54	12	7	1	100%	6.4	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	2.7%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	50	227	47	26	6	—	—	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	2.9%	6.46	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	145	611	143	73	17	100%	5.6	23.4%	12.0%	11.4%	2.7%	4.60	4.52	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	147	619	147	68	17	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	2.7%	4.46	4.38	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	147	619	147	67	17	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	2.8%	4.39	4.35	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	144	610	145	66	17	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	2.8%	4.39	4.39	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	140	592	140	65	17	100%	6.1	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.44	4.47	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	134	565	132	63	17	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	126	531	122	61	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.78	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	117	495	112	59	17	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.87	4.98	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	108	458	102	56	17	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	3.7%	5.07	5.21	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	63	266	62	32	7	100%	5.7	23.4%	12.0%	11.4%	2.7%	4.60	4.52	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	98	414	98	46	11	100%	5.8	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	2.7%	4.46	4.38	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	117	494	118	53	14	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	2.7%	4.39	4.35	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	123	519	123	56	15	100%	6.2	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	2.8%	4.39	4.39	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	125	528	125	58	15	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.44	4.47	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	122	515	120	58	16	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	116	490	113	56	16	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.78	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	109	460	104	55	16	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.87	4.98	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	102	431	95	53	16	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	3.7%	5.06	5.20	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	975	4117	959	467	126	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.25	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	197	96	26	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.59	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		43	36	161	682	139	90	17	84%	3.7	20.3%	13.2%	7.2%	2.5%	3.63	4.45	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	45	200	847	172	112	22	84%	3.7	20.3%	13.2%	7.2%	2.5%	3.63	4.45	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	22.9%	13.5%	2.7%	—	4.42	23.6%	12.4%	438	-0.34	—	—	—
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	82
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	81
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	80
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	79
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	78
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	78
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	78
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	78
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	77
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	77
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Spencer Arrighetti R 2023 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP-	3.92	22.2%	11.1%	2.4%	.277	4.38	24.2%	12.8%	307	+0.46	3.92	538	76
Dom Hamel R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	22.4%	12.9%	1.4%	.273	4.57	21.1%	11.0%	316	+0.96	3.61	547	76
Kyle Nicolas R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP	4.41	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	3.98	23.0%	11.5%	227	-0.43	3.29	461	76
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.54	18.7%	11.6%	445	+0.42	4.12	747	76
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	135	23.3%	11.6%	1.16	4.60
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45