Will Watson

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#533ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ANYM	2	0	3	3.38	5.72	30.0%	0.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP 6.06
2025	22	MIX3 levels	28	23	121	2.60	3.05	28.5%	11.6%	—	K 21.8% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.11
2026	23	MIX3 levels	13	13	37	7.05	4.51	20.2%	11.0%	—	K 15.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	1	1	3	5.10	5.10	19.9%	13.4%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBNYM	8	8	49	4.90	4.83	20.9%	12.0%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBNYM	11	11	68	4.79	4.75	21.4%	11.6%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 4.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · Josh Bostick (age 22) · J.P. France (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%19.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP141

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	3	0	1	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	10.0%	3.38	6.06	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	3	0	1	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	10.0%	3.38	6.06	—
2024	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	2	0	3	10	3	0	1	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	10.0%	3.38	5.72	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	121	499	142	58	8	82%	4.3	21.8%	13.4%	8.4%	2.1%	2.60	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	121	499	142	58	8	82%	4.3	21.8%	13.4%	8.4%	2.1%	2.60	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	121	499	142	58	8	82%	4.3	28.5%	11.6%	16.8%	1.6%	2.60	3.05	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	37	173	35	19	5	100%	2.8	15.5%	13.3%	2.2%	3.4%	7.05	5.34	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	37	173	35	19	5	100%	2.8	15.5%	13.3%	2.2%	3.4%	7.05	5.34	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	37	173	35	19	5	100%	2.8	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	2.9%	7.05	4.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	19.9%	13.4%	6.5%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	112	474	99	57	14	100%	5.9	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.83	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	102	432	93	50	13	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.79	4.75	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	97	408	88	47	12	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	91	386	82	45	12	100%	6.1	21.3%	11.6%	9.8%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	85	358	75	42	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.96	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	77	324	67	39	11	100%	5.9	20.7%	12.1%	8.7%	3.4%	5.04	5.14	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	49	207	43	25	6	100%	6.1	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.83	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	68	287	61	33	8	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.79	4.75	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	75	317	68	36	9	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	77	325	69	38	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	11.6%	9.8%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	66	37	10	100%	6.2	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.96	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	69	291	60	35	10	100%	5.8	20.7%	12.1%	8.7%	3.4%	5.04	5.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	413	1744	369	205	54	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.49	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	99	26	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.49	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		43	36	161	682	139	90	17	84%	3.7	20.3%	13.2%	7.2%	2.5%	3.63	4.45	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	45	200	847	172	112	22	84%	3.7	20.3%	13.2%	7.2%	2.5%	3.63	4.45	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 29 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.34 (+0.77)K% 19.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.15%	—	×0.810	15.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.06%	—	×1.100	13.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 6 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.32 (+0.61)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 64 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.48 (+0.89)K% 29.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.73%	—	×0.770	22.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.150	12.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.073	×1.250	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 39 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.88 (+1.37)K% 25.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.90%	—	×0.740	19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.65%	—	×1.180	14.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷0.855	×1.300	2.75%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 18 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.56 (+0.95)K% 29.7% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.73%	—	×0.810	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.16%	—	×1.100	13.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.990	×1.200	3.27%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.78	21.2%	9.5%	311	-0.32	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	81
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	80
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	79
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	79
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	79
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	78
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	78
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	78
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	78
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	77
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	77
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	77
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	76
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	76
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	101	20.9%	12.1%	1.18	4.91
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81