Jackson Kirkpatrick

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	33	44	1.02	2.19	36.3%	16.8%	—	K 27.4% · BB 19.5% · FIP 3.26
2026	23	MIX3 levels	28	36	7.07	3.94	29.6%	22.9%	—	K 20.2% · BB 26.9% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	18	19	5.57	5.57	22.2%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCHC	17	18	5.27	5.15	22.7%	16.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsZane Russell (age 24) · Hudson Leach (age 22) · Christian Ruebeck (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%22.2%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	44	179	65	30	0	0%	1.3	27.4%	19.5%	7.9%	0.0%	1.02	3.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	44	179	65	30	0	0%	1.3	27.4%	19.5%	7.9%	0.0%	1.02	3.26	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	44	179	65	30	0	0%	1.3	36.3%	16.8%	19.6%	0.0%	1.02	2.19	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	36	179	53	41	1	0%	1.3	20.2%	26.9%	-6.7%	0.9%	7.07	5.30	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	36	179	53	41	1	0%	1.3	20.2%	26.9%	-6.7%	0.9%	7.07	5.30	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	36	179	53	41	1	0%	1.3	29.6%	22.9%	6.7%	0.6%	7.07	3.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	18	0	19	80	18	16	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	20.0%	2.2%	2.6%	5.57	5.57	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	169	38	29	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	16.9%	5.8%	2.6%	5.27	5.15	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	17	13	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	16.9%	5.8%	2.6%	5.27	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	74	17	13	2	0%	1.0	22.7%	16.9%	5.8%	2.6%	5.27	4.77	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	148	23	0%	1.1	22.7%	16.9%	5.8%	2.6%	5.27	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		61	0	80	358	85	83	2	0%	1.3	23.8%	23.2%	0.6%	0.5%	3.73	4.28	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	899	214	209	4	0%	1.3	23.8%	23.2%	0.6%	0.5%	3.73	4.28	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kirkpatrick (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	22.2%	20.0%	2.6%	—	5.15	22.7%	5.8%	40	-0.42	—	—	—
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	91
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	88
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	87
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	84
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	84
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	84
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	82
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	82
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	82
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	82
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	82
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	81
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	22.5%	17.9%	1.01	5.37
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*