Saul Teran — OGILVIE

Saul Teran P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%23.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—60

CTRL—50

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	15	4	32	140	36	11	3	27%	2.1	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	3.5%	4.50	4.81	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	15	4	32	140	36	11	3	27%	2.1	25.7%	7.9%	17.9%	2.1%	4.50	3.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	34	141	30	10	3	0%	1.7	13.2%	9.7%	3.5%	4.0%	4.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	34	141	30	10	3	0%	1.7	13.2%	9.7%	3.5%	4.0%	4.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	34	141	30	10	3	0%	1.7	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.1%	4.28	3.37	—
2024	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.8%	3.5%	2.9%	3.96	5.21	—
2024	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.8%	3.5%	2.9%	3.96	5.21	—
2024	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	30.3%	16.0%	14.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.06	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	0.0%	1.30	2.28	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	0.0%	1.30	2.28	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	30.1%	7.5%	22.6%	0.0%	1.30	1.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	6.9%	6.34	6.74	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	6.9%	6.34	6.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PHI	2	0	4	14	9	0	0	0%	2.0	64.3%	0.0%	64.3%	0.0%	0.00	-2.33	—
2026	24	AA RAW	PHI	29	0	40	191	37	16	11	0%	1.4	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	5.8%	6.97	5.69	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.38	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	50	230	52	19	12	—	—	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	5.1%	6.11	6.46	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	87	0	91	385	94	40	10	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	2.7%	4.28	4.22	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	87	0	91	385	95	39	10	0%	1.0	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.7%	4.22	4.18	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	85	0	90	379	93	38	11	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.1%	14.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.22	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	83	0	87	367	89	38	11	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.2%	14.1%	2.9%	4.27	4.30	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	79	0	83	351	85	37	11	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.44	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	74	0	78	330	85	33	11	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.0%	15.8%	3.2%	4.35	4.34	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	38	0	40	169	41	18	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	2.7%	4.28	4.22	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	58	0	61	258	64	26	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.7%	4.22	4.18	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	67	0	70	296	73	30	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.1%	14.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.22	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	70	0	73	308	75	32	9	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.2%	14.1%	2.9%	4.27	4.30	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	70	0	73	308	74	32	9	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.44	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	67	0	70	296	76	29	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.0%	15.8%	3.2%	4.35	4.34	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		369	0	387	1634	403	167	48	0%	1.0	24.7%	10.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.29	3.91	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	208	86	25	0%	1.0	24.7%	10.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.29	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		128	4	183	791	147	87	28	3%	1.4	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.6%	3.98	4.88	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	4	200	864	160	95	31	3%	1.4	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.6%	3.98	4.88	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Saul Teran (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	23.9%	11.4%	2.7%	—	4.21	24.6%	14.3%	272	-0.17	—	—	—
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	90
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	90
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	86
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	85
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	85
Colby Blueberg R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	22.7%	11.5%	1.6%	.315	4.14	20.3%	9.8%	50	+0.62	2.36	229	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	84
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	84
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	84
Alex Cook R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.76	21.7%	13.9%	96	-0.28	2.93	162	84
Trevor Holloway R 2021 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	21.9%	11.7%	1.3%	.266	4.55	17.9%	6.1%	43	+1.11	3.44	112	84
Anthony Vizcaya R 2019 · 3.22 FIP	25	SU	3.22	21.9%	10.8%	1.1%	.259	7.20	18.2%	5.5%	13	+3.98	3.22	115	84
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	84
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	24.5%	10.4%	1.10	4.30
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Spencer Turnbull ('24)	1.7	68	22.0%	9.2%	0.77	4.18