Saul Teran
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 165 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
OFP—40
STUF—60
CTRL—50
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 15 | 4 | 32 | 140 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 4.50 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 20 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 13.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 4.28 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 0 | 25 | 119 | 36 | 19 | 3 | 22.4% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 40 | 0 | 48 | 186 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 24.1% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 2.28 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 4 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 5 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 32 | 13 | 3 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 36 | 155 | 35 | 17 | 8 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 5.14 | 3.62 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 25.1% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 4 | 144 | 611 | 117 | 72 | 20 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 3.51 | 4.74 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 6 | 200 | 851 | 163 | 100 | 28 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 3.51 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Saul Teran (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.07 | 25.0% | 15.5% | 94 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 92 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 90 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 89 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 89 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 88 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 88 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 87 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 87 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 87 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 87 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 87 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 87 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 164 | 86 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 86 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.