Saul Teran

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	APHI	22	25	3.96	4.06	30.3%	16.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 18.8% · FIP 5.21
2025	23	MIX3 levels	40	48	1.30	1.65	30.1%	7.5%	—	K 24.1% · BB 9.6% · FIP 2.28
2026	24	MIX2 levels	31	44	6.34	5.35	22.4%	7.8%	—	K 15.7% · BB 9.2% · FIP 6.74
2027PROJ	25	MLBPHI	1	1	5.08	5.08	19.2%	9.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBPHI	14	15	4.93	4.89	20.9%	9.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBPHI	20	21	4.88	4.88	21.1%	9.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsHueston Morrill (age 24) · Austin Ross (age 24) · Jon Leicester (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%19.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	15	4	32	140	36	11	3	27%	2.1	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	3.5%	4.50	4.81	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	15	4	32	140	36	11	3	27%	2.1	25.7%	7.9%	17.9%	2.1%	4.50	3.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	34	141	30	10	3	0%	1.7	13.2%	9.7%	3.5%	4.0%	4.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	34	141	30	10	3	0%	1.7	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.1%	4.28	3.37	—
2024	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.8%	3.5%	2.9%	3.96	5.21	—
2024	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.8%	3.5%	2.9%	3.96	5.21	—
2024	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	30.3%	16.0%	14.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.06	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	0.0%	1.30	2.28	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	0.0%	1.30	2.28	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	30.1%	7.5%	22.6%	0.0%	1.30	1.65	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	6.9%	6.34	6.74	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	6.9%	6.34	6.74	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	5.4%	6.34	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PHI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.6%	5.08	5.08	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	46	0	48	202	42	20	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.93	4.89	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	40	0	42	178	37	17	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.5%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	14	0	15	63	13	6	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.93	4.89	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	20	0	21	89	19	9	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.5%	4.88	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	36	151	32	15	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.90	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	84	28	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.90	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		128	4	183	791	147	87	28	3%	1.4	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.6%	3.98	4.88	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	4	200	864	160	95	31	3%	1.4	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.6%	3.98	4.88	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 40 IPFIP 5.69 → 6.74 (+1.05)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.37%	—	×0.810	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.38%	—	×1.100	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	5.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.69 → 6.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 26 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.21 (+0.66)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.770	17.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.00%	—	×1.150	12.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.045	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 18 IPFIP -0.14 → 0.94 (+1.09)K% 44.9% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.93%	—	×0.740	33.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.180	5.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.083	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP -0.14 → 0.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 25 IPFIP 3.95 → 5.21 (+1.26)K% 30.3% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.25%	—	×0.740	22.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.97%	—	×1.180	18.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.115	×1.300	2.94%

Result: FIP 3.95 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Phillies · 25 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.39 (+1.35)K% 19.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.42%	—	×0.680	13.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×1.250	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.028	×1.400	3.96%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 9 IPFIP 1.54 → 2.24 (+0.70)K% 26.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.740	19.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.180	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.54 → 2.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Phillies White · 32 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.81 (+1.71)K% 25.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.680	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.86%	—	×1.250	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷0.849	×1.400	3.53%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Saul Teran (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.89	21.0%	11.2%	90	-0.19	—	—	—
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	92
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	92
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	91
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	90
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	89
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	89
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	89
Mark Peterson R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	17.8%	8.8%	3.5%	.287	4.78	13.7%	1.8%	52	+0.13	4.65	185	88
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	88
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	88
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	87
Darin Gillies R 2018 · 4.81 FIP	25	SU	4.81	22.2%	10.2%	4.2%	.294	4.83	23.2%	12.8%	106	+0.02	4.22	295	87
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	87
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	21.5%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.82	26.5%	13.5%	100	-0.71	2.41	227	87
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	87
Alejandro Mateo R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	25	SU	4.93	20.6%	10.0%	4.2%	.301	3.96	21.0%	10.5%	13	-0.97	3.96	209	86
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	86
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	86
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	16.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.60	2.23	174	86
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	20.3%	9.8%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*