Saul Teran
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 165 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 96
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
K%23.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 15 | 4 | 32 | 140 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 27% | 2.1 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.50 | 5.23 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 15 | 4 | 32 | 140 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 27% | 2.1 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 17.9% | 2.1% | 4.50 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.2% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.28 | 5.33 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 4.28 | 3.37 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 0 | 25 | 119 | 36 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 18.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 5.06 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 0 | 25 | 119 | 36 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 4.06 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 48 | 186 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.1% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 2.28 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 48 | 186 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.1% | 7.5% | 22.6% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 1.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 0 | 32 | 154 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.31 | 6.66 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 91 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 122 | 534 | 122 | 50 | 19 | — | — | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.9% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 94 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 95 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 93 | 35 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +1.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 73 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 164 | 0 | 172 | 727 | 179 | 68 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 3.70 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 79 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 4 | 171 | 740 | 140 | 81 | 25 | 3% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 4.78 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 5 | 200 | 865 | 163 | 95 | 30 | 3% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Saul Teran (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.08 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 272 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 91 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 87 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 86 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 86 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.43 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 50 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 164 | 86 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 85 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 85 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 85 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 85 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 85 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .304 | 4.02 | 25.6% | 14.1% | 62 | +0.30 | 2.90 | 176 | 85 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 85 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 85 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.44 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | .264 | 3.56 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.88 | 3.56 | 155 | 84 |
| Scott Boches R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.18 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .312 | 7.76 | 14.8% | 4.0% | 16 | +4.58 | 2.97 | 195 | 84 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 84 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 84 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 84 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .315 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 50 | +0.90 | 2.36 | 229 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.05 | 4.13 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Alek Manoah ('24) | 4 | 105 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 1.03 | 3.34 |