Alejandro Mateo
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%23.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 2.84 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 2.84 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 10 | 3 | 22 | 103 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 30% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 7.25 | 5.84 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 10 | 3 | 22 | 103 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 30% | 2.2 | 28.2% | 5.8% | 22.3% | 6.8% | 7.25 | 5.38 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 35 | 0 | 71 | 294 | 72 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 2.0 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 3.31 | 4.75 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 35 | 0 | 71 | 294 | 72 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 2.0 | 24.5% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 2.0% | 3.31 | 3.23 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 3.53 | 5.55 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 3.53 | 3.56 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 2 | 26 | 113 | 29 | 13 | 1 | 9% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 1.73 | 4.02 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 2 | 26 | 113 | 29 | 13 | 1 | 9% | 1.2 | 25.7% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 0.9% | 1.73 | 2.87 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 55 | 260 | 68 | 32 | 11 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 6.22 | 5.45 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 55 | 260 | 68 | 32 | 11 | 2% | 1.2 | 26.2% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 4.2% | 6.22 | 4.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.34 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 98 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 161 | 6 | 244 | 1065 | 214 | 113 | 45 | 4% | 1.5 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 4.28 | 5.05 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 5 | 200 | 873 | 175 | 93 | 37 | 4% | 1.5 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 4.28 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alejandro Mateo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.72 | 22.5% | 12.2% | 22 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 92 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 84 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 83 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 82 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 81 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 80 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 79 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 78 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.47 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.93 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.46 | 1.60 | 312 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 78 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 77 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 77 |