Alejandro Mateo
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.2
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.1%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 7 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 9 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 10 | 3 | 22 | 103 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.25 | 6.47 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 35 | 0 | 71 | 294 | 72 | 25 | 6 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 3.31 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 42 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 3.53 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 22 | 2 | 26 | 113 | 29 | 13 | 1 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 1.73 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 45 | 1 | 55 | 260 | 68 | 32 | 11 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 6.22 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 6 | 244 | 1065 | 214 | 113 | 43 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 4.28 | 4.95 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 5 | 200 | 873 | 175 | 93 | 35 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 4.28 | 4.95 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alejandro Mateo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.69 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 94 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 94 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 86 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 86 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 83 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 82 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 81 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 81 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 80 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 80 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.45 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.57 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.12 | 1.61 | 312 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 79 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 79 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.