Humberto Cruz — OGILVIE

Humberto Cruz P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%18.4%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD2555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	2	2	2	8	2	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	2	2	2	8	2	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	2	2	2	8	2	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	171	35	17	8	100%	2.7	14.6%	12.1%	2.6%	6.5%	7.58	6.95	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	171	35	17	8	100%	2.7	14.6%	12.1%	2.6%	6.5%	7.58	6.95	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	38	171	35	17	8	100%	2.7	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	4.7%	7.58	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	19	MLB	SD	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.4%	10.9%	7.5%	3.3%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	36	152	30	15	5	100%	5.1	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.80	+0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	SD	3	3	18	76	15	8	2	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	75	15	7	2	100%	4.4	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.42	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	170	79	23	100%	4.6	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		16	16	40	179	27	22	11	100%	2.5	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	6.2%	7.20	6.75	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	80	200	895	135	108	55	100%	2.5	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	6.2%	7.20	6.75	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Humberto Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	18.4%	10.9%	3.3%	—	4.80	20.1%	10.1%	36	-0.31	—	—	—
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	86
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	84
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	84
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	84
Gio Arriera R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	19	SP	5.41	15.1%	13.9%	3.3%	.333	4.34	15.5%	2.0%	79	-1.07	4.34	185	83
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	82
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	82
Luis Serna R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	18.4%	11.8%	2.4%	.288	4.07	21.0%	11.8%	188	-0.27	2.80	289	82
Felix Arronde R 2022 · 4.74 FIP	19	SP	4.74	20.7%	9.9%	3.9%	.371	4.23	16.7%	7.3%	278	-0.51	4.16	442	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81
Mauricio Veliz R 2021 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP	5.14	12.1%	8.8%	3.6%	.307	4.93	12.1%	1.0%	189	-0.21	4.59	282	80
Jimmy Lambert R 2016 · 3.98 FIP	21	SP	3.98	16.2%	9.5%	1.9%	.394	4.11	17.2%	9.0%	305	+0.13	3.43	526	79
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	79
Walter Ford R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	18	SP	4.14	15.2%	12.1%	1.4%	.348	5.71	12.4%	5.7%	308	+1.57	4.14	330	79
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	79
Jeff Criswell R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	18.5%	9.2%	2.6%	.242	5.28	21.4%	11.3%	306	+1.14	4.14	349	78
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	78
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	78
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	78
Victor Mederos R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	15.6%	14.0%	2.1%	.286	5.20	16.2%	5.5%	301	+0.51	3.81	390	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	19.4%	10.4%	1.24	4.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21