Jacob Odle

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKSTL	2	0	2	9.00	5.60	16.7%	25.0%	—	K 16.7% · BB 25.0% · FIP 4.86
2025	21	MIX2 levels	17	17	52	5.92	2.83	29.9%	16.0%	—	K 20.5% · BB 21.2% · FIP 4.43
2026	22	MIX2 levels	24	22	96	3.19	3.51	34.1%	15.5%	—	K 25.9% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	12	12	67	5.42	5.42	25.9%	19.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	7	7	38	5.03	4.92	26.1%	17.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSTL	10	10	60	4.80	4.68	26.1%	15.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control36Command35FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 79%

CompsLuis Quiñones (age 24) · Max Bain (age 23) · TJ Shook (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%25.9%

BB%19.9%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL2035

CMD3535

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.86	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	5.60	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	20.5%	21.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.92	4.43	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	20.5%	21.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.92	4.43	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	52	231	69	37	1	100%	3.0	29.9%	16.0%	13.9%	0.4%	5.92	2.83	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	25.9%	18.0%	8.0%	3.0%	3.19	4.84	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	25.9%	18.0%	8.0%	3.0%	3.19	4.84	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	96	419	143	65	10	92%	4.0	34.1%	15.5%	18.6%	2.4%	3.19	3.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	12	12	67	283	73	56	8	100%	5.6	25.9%	19.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.42	5.42	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	89	374	97	64	11	100%	5.5	26.1%	17.0%	9.0%	2.9%	5.14	5.03	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	379	99	57	11	100%	6.0	26.1%	15.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.91	4.79	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	379	99	56	11	100%	6.0	26.1%	14.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.80	4.74	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	373	97	55	11	100%	5.9	26.0%	14.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.78	4.77	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	86	362	94	54	11	100%	6.1	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	+0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	345	89	52	11	100%	5.8	25.7%	15.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.92	4.98	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	77	325	89	47	11	100%	5.9	27.3%	14.5%	12.8%	3.4%	4.90	4.89	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	38	160	42	27	4	100%	5.4	26.1%	17.0%	9.0%	2.7%	5.03	4.92	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	66	38	7	100%	6.0	26.1%	15.2%	11.0%	2.7%	4.80	4.68	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	71	300	78	44	8	100%	5.9	26.1%	14.8%	11.4%	2.7%	4.69	4.63	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	75	317	82	46	9	100%	6.2	26.0%	14.7%	11.3%	2.8%	4.67	4.66	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	76	321	83	48	9	100%	5.8	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.73	+0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	74	312	80	47	9	100%	6.2	25.7%	15.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.80	4.86	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	71	300	82	44	10	100%	5.9	27.3%	14.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	466	1966	515	295	56	100%	6.0	26.2%	15.0%	11.2%	2.9%	4.76	4.36	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	221	127	24	100%	5.9	26.2%	15.0%	11.2%	2.9%	4.76	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		43	39	150	662	158	127	14	91%	3.5	23.9%	19.2%	4.6%	2.1%	4.21	4.69	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	52	200	885	211	170	19	91%	3.5	23.9%	19.2%	4.6%	2.1%	4.21	4.69	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Odle (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	25.9%	19.9%	2.9%	—	4.85	26.1%	10.5%	268	-0.57	—	—	—
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	78
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	77
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	77
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	77
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	76
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	76
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	75
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	75
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	74
Carlos Tavera R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	25.4%	15.9%	4.0%	.285	5.34	19.1%	4.1%	180	+0.20	3.85	263	74
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	74
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	74
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	23.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	3.95	19.2%	8.3%	243	-0.42	3.69	538	73
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	73
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	73
Richard Guasch R 2021 · 5.50 FIP	23	SP-	5.50	20.5%	15.3%	4.0%	.293	4.01	22.5%	6.7%	90	-1.49	2.94	316	73
Kyle Nicolas R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP	4.41	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	3.96	23.4%	11.8%	227	-0.45	3.25	464	73
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	84	26.1%	15.6%	1.18	4.95
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Rex Barney ('43-'50, 1 WAR*)	3.0	100	26.2%*	14.4%*	1.18*	4.65*
Tom Sunkel ('37-'44, -0 WAR*)	1.1	55	24.6%*	13.5%*	0.96*	5.12*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70