Chen-Wei Lin

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #371MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ASTL	22	22	116	2.79	2.25	26.6%	7.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.05
2025	23	MIX3 levels	17	17	50	5.54	3.42	31.4%	17.5%	—	K 21.0% · BB 19.7% · FIP 4.30
2026	24	AASTL	26	17	103	5.00	3.68	26.0%	11.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	23	23	136	4.95	4.95	22.0%	14.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSTL	10	10	60	4.76	4.75	22.2%	13.4%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	14	14	85	4.73	4.74	22.2%	13.1%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command40FB velo65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 85%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · Paxton Schultz (age 25) · J.P. France (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%22.0%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	16	80	21	12	2	100%	2.7	21.3%	22.0%	-0.7%	4.4%	6.06	6.48	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	16	80	21	12	2	100%	2.7	26.2%	15.0%	11.3%	2.5%	6.06	4.32	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	0.8%	2.79	3.05	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	0.8%	2.79	3.05	—
2024	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	26.6%	7.8%	18.8%	0.6%	2.79	2.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	21.0%	19.7%	1.2%	0.9%	5.54	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	21.0%	19.7%	1.2%	0.9%	5.54	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	31.4%	17.5%	13.9%	1.3%	5.54	3.42	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.48	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.48	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	26.0%	11.2%	14.8%	2.4%	5.00	3.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	23	23	136	574	126	81	16	100%	5.9	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	2.8%	4.95	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	136	574	128	77	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.87	4.86	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	134	566	126	74	16	100%	6.1	22.2%	13.1%	9.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.85	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	130	549	121	71	16	100%	5.9	22.1%	12.9%	9.1%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	124	524	114	68	17	100%	5.9	21.8%	13.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.95	5.02	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	117	493	106	66	17	100%	6.1	21.5%	13.3%	8.1%	3.4%	5.10	5.20	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	56	34	7	100%	6.0	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.76	4.75	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	85	359	80	47	10	100%	6.1	22.2%	13.1%	9.1%	2.7%	4.73	4.74	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	98	414	91	54	12	100%	6.1	22.1%	12.9%	9.1%	2.8%	4.75	4.79	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	101	426	93	56	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	13.0%	8.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.90	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	100	422	91	56	13	100%	5.9	21.5%	13.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	444	1876	411	246	54	100%	6.0	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.82	4.48	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	111	24	100%	6.0	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.82	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		71	62	285	1219	250	160	22	87%	4.0	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	854	176	112	16	87%	4.0	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chen-Wei Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	22.0%	14.1%	2.8%	—	4.87	22.2%	9.0%	400	-0.08	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	84
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	80
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	80
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	80
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	80
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	79
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	78
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	78
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	78
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	76
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	76
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	76
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	129	22.0%	13.3%	1.16	4.93
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Rip Hagerman ('09-'16, 0 WAR*)	2.2	144	21.2%*	11.8%*	1.44*	4.55*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56