Junior Tavera
P
DSL NYY Bombers
Age 19
LHP
6'0" / 184 lbs
ROK
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104113vR 122
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
K%22.3%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 8 | 6 | 16 | 83 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 75% | 2.0 | 18.0% | 31.6% | -13.6% | 0.7% | 8.82 | 5.98 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 8 | 6 | 16 | 83 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 75% | 2.0 | 26.5% | 25.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 8.82 | 5.06 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 12 | 11 | 36 | 181 | 38 | 28 | 2 | 92% | 3.0 | 14.3% | 19.3% | -5.1% | 1.3% | 6.94 | 5.06 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 12 | 11 | 36 | 181 | 38 | 28 | 2 | 92% | 3.0 | 21.0% | 15.5% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 6.94 | 4.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 7 | 7 | 29 | 135 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 18.1% | 17.6% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 6.91 | 6.07 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 18 | 75 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.56 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 46 | 210 | 53 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 25.1% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 6.01 | 5.50 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | NYY | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.02 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 27 | 24 | 81 | 399 | 65 | 85 | 9 | 89% | 3.0 | 16.4% | 21.3% | -4.9% | 2.1% | 7.30 | 5.60 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 59 | 200 | 981 | 161 | 209 | 21 | 89% | 3.0 | 16.4% | 21.3% | -4.9% | 2.1% | 7.30 | 5.60 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Junior Tavera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.40 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 20 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Woods L 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 88 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.19 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.14 | 3.19 | 435 | 84 |
| Blake Townsend L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 82 |
| Brock Selvidge L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .321 | 3.75 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 287 | +0.09 | 3.04 | 330 | 81 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.10 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.22 | 3.63 | 362 | 79 |
| Jackson Humphries L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.37 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 6.27 | 20.7% | 0.6% | 223 | +1.90 | 4.37 | 280 | 79 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.49 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 0.9% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 122 | +0.22 | 2.98 | 166 | 78 |
| Hogan Harris L 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 78 |
| Jesus Gomez L 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 18 | SP | 5.12 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .275 | 4.31 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 23 | -0.81 | 4.22 | 121 | 78 |
| Johan Simon L 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 78 |
| Dalton Lehnen L 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.95 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .398 | 4.61 | 15.8% | 2.9% | 189 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 222 | 77 |
| Jay Groome L 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.20 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 420 | 77 |
| Jacob Bresnahan L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.01 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 153 | -1.29 | 2.97 | 222 | 77 |
| Wilkin Paredes L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.23 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .353 | 4.88 | 11.8% | 3.1% | 248 | +0.65 | 4.23 | 294 | 77 |
| Riley Frey L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .417 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 180 | +0.64 | 4.00 | 198 | 76 |
| Deyer Zapata L 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.37 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .309 | 5.40 | 17.5% | 4.0% | 50 | +1.03 | 3.61 | 130 | 76 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.14 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .303 | 5.26 | 17.9% | 3.4% | 302 | +1.12 | 4.14 | 328 | 76 |
| Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.91 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.43 | 2.22 | 594 | 76 |
| Mitch Bratt L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.54 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .302 | 3.49 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 294 | -0.05 | 3.08 | 427 | 75 |
| Brady Aiken L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.79 | 20.0% | 13.7% | 1.2% | .443 | 5.83 | 11.0% | -8.9% | 132 | +2.04 | 3.79 | 156 | 74 |