Junior Tavera — OGILVIE

Junior Tavera P DSL NYY Bombers

Age 19 LHP 6'0" / 184 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.89

FIP5.89

K%19.4%

BB%19.4%

K-BB%-0.0%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	8	6	16	83	22	21	1	75%	2.0	18.0%	31.6%	-13.6%	1.0%	8.82	6.14	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	8	6	16	83	22	21	1	75%	2.0	18.0%	31.6%	-13.6%	1.0%	8.82	6.14	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	8	6	16	83	22	21	1	75%	2.0	26.5%	25.3%	1.2%	1.2%	8.82	5.06	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	36	181	38	28	2	92%	3.0	14.3%	19.3%	-5.1%	1.4%	6.94	5.12	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	36	181	38	28	2	92%	3.0	14.3%	19.3%	-5.1%	1.4%	6.94	5.12	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	36	181	38	28	2	92%	3.0	21.0%	15.5%	5.5%	1.1%	6.94	4.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	9	48	223	60	33	5	75%	4.0	18.3%	18.5%	-0.2%	3.1%	6.33	5.62	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	9	48	223	60	33	5	75%	4.0	18.3%	18.5%	-0.2%	3.1%	6.33	5.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	NYY	12	9	48	223	60	33	5	75%	4.0	26.9%	14.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.33	3.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	50	210	43	34	6	100%	4.5	20.4%	16.4%	4.0%	2.9%	5.53	5.40	-0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	52	220	47	32	6	100%	4.7	21.1%	14.4%	6.8%	2.8%	5.21	5.05	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	55	231	51	29	6	100%	5.0	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	2.8%	4.91	4.73	+0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	57	240	55	28	7	100%	5.2	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	2.7%	4.66	4.50	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	58	246	58	27	7	100%	5.8	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	2.7%	4.47	4.34	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	59	249	59	26	7	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.23	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	59	249	60	25	7	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.2%	13.8%	2.7%	4.26	4.21	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	58	245	59	25	7	100%	5.8	24.0%	10.3%	13.7%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	24	101	21	17	3	100%	4.8	20.4%	16.4%	4.0%	3.0%	5.64	5.51	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	38	160	34	23	5	100%	4.8	21.1%	14.4%	6.8%	3.0%	5.31	5.15	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	46	194	43	25	6	100%	5.1	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	2.9%	5.01	4.83	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	51	215	49	25	6	100%	5.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.60	+0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	54	228	53	25	7	100%	5.4	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.44	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	55	232	55	24	7	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.33	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	56	236	57	24	7	100%	6.2	24.0%	10.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.36	4.31	+0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	55	232	56	24	7	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	380	1604	369	186	47	100%	5.5	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.22	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	194	98	25	100%	5.5	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		32	26	101	487	82	102	10	81%	3.2	16.8%	21.0%	-4.3%	2.1%	6.95	5.52	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	51	200	964	162	203	21	81%	3.2	16.8%	21.0%	-4.3%	2.1%	6.95	5.52	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Tavera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.89	19.4%	19.4%	2.9%	—	5.05	21.3%	6.8%	157	-0.84	—	—	—
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	83
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	81
Gabe Morales L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	19.3%	21.0%	1.8%	.313	4.23	22.9%	8.7%	124	-0.89	2.92	268	81
Roberto Medina L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	18	SP	4.85	21.6%	21.7%	1.5%	.313	5.67	16.4%	-2.1%	73	+0.82	3.87	109	81
Luis Cesar L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	19	SP-	5.28	14.8%	20.6%	1.5%	.351	5.77	14.3%	-8.1%	91	+0.49	4.84	131	80
Frank Mozzicato L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	19	SP	5.00	21.5%	19.7%	2.2%	.306	5.60	18.6%	0.2%	288	+0.60	5.00	428	78
Liam Norris L 2021 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP	6.27	17.4%	30.7%	1.4%	.396	5.46	24.2%	4.1%	119	-0.81	3.98	184	77
Hector Yan L 2018 · 5.96 FIP	19	SP	5.96	14.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.321	4.90	21.8%	6.6%	191	-1.06	3.48	268	77
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	76
Josue Arias L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	18	SP	4.73	18.8%	18.6%	1.6%	.340	6.98	12.6%	-18.5%	50	+2.25	4.73	114	76
Dylan MacLean L 2021 · 6.38 FIP	19	SP	6.38	13.6%	27.9%	1.6%	.271	4.11	15.7%	5.3%	101	-2.27	3.45	281	76
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	75
Wande Torres L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	17	SP	4.92	16.7%	22.5%	0.7%	.260	3.28	19.8%	8.3%	102	-1.64	1.58	257	74
Sandro Bargallo L 2021 · 6.70 FIP	19	SP-	6.70	15.8%	26.5%	2.9%	.308	4.91	19.2%	-3.1%	82	-1.79	4.16	129	74
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
José Alvarado L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP	5.31	15.1%	20.1%	1.7%	.347	3.00	25.3%	11.6%	183	-2.31	1.57	519	74
Jacob Heatherly L 2017 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	11.6%	13.8%	2.3%	.315	6.27	18.1%	-9.1%	39	+1.13	4.47	192	74
Noel Vela L 2018 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP-	5.10	17.0%	16.0%	2.6%	.404	4.61	20.2%	5.2%	98	-0.49	4.48	255	73
Oddanier Mosqueda L 2017 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP	5.29	11.5%	15.0%	2.3%	.354	3.74	22.8%	11.7%	52	-1.55	3.05	433	73
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	52	22.7%	12.2%	1.06	4.72
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10