Junior Tavera

P DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 LHP 6'0" / 184 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.5 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1498ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	12	11	36	6.94	4.04	21.0%	15.5%	—	K 14.3% · BB 19.3% · FIP 5.12
2026	19	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	12	9	48	6.33	4.01	26.9%	14.8%	—	K 18.3% · BB 18.5% · FIP 5.62
2027PROJ	20	MLBNYY	—	—	0	5.71	5.71	19.9%	18.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBNYY	4	4	17	5.50	5.38	20.8%	15.4%	0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBNYY	5	5	26	5.17	5.00	21.9%	13.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJeremy Pilon (age 18) · Jacob Heatherly (age 20) · Brandon Herbold (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 142

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%19.9%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	8	6	16	83	22	21	1	75%	2.0	18.0%	31.6%	-13.6%	1.0%	8.82	6.14	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	8	6	16	83	22	21	1	75%	2.0	18.0%	31.6%	-13.6%	1.0%	8.82	6.14	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	8	6	16	83	22	21	1	75%	2.0	26.5%	25.3%	1.2%	1.2%	8.82	5.06	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	36	181	38	28	2	92%	3.0	14.3%	19.3%	-5.1%	1.4%	6.94	5.12	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	36	181	38	28	2	92%	3.0	14.3%	19.3%	-5.1%	1.4%	6.94	5.12	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	12	11	36	181	38	28	2	92%	3.0	21.0%	15.5%	5.5%	1.1%	6.94	4.04	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	9	48	223	60	33	5	75%	4.0	18.3%	18.5%	-0.2%	3.1%	6.33	5.62	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	9	48	223	60	33	5	75%	4.0	18.3%	18.5%	-0.2%	3.1%	6.33	5.62	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	12	9	48	223	60	33	5	75%	4.0	26.9%	14.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.33	4.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	18.0%	1.9%	3.0%	5.71	5.71	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	35	149	31	23	4	100%	5.0	20.8%	15.4%	5.4%	2.9%	5.39	5.27	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	36	150	33	20	4	100%	5.1	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	2.9%	5.06	4.89	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	37	155	35	19	4	100%	5.2	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.79	4.63	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	37	158	37	18	4	100%	5.3	23.2%	11.1%	12.2%	2.8%	4.59	4.45	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	37	157	37	16	4	100%	6.2	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.44	4.34	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	38	158	38	17	4	100%	6.2	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.37	4.32	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	37	155	37	16	4	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	2.8%	4.36	4.35	+0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	17	72	15	11	2	100%	4.2	20.8%	15.4%	5.4%	3.1%	5.50	5.38	+0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	26	110	24	15	3	100%	5.2	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	3.0%	5.17	5.00	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	31	131	30	16	4	100%	5.2	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.73	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	33	139	32	15	4	100%	5.5	23.2%	11.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.69	4.55	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	34	144	34	15	4	100%	5.7	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	3.0%	4.54	4.44	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	35	148	35	15	4	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.42	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	35	148	35	16	4	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.45	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	211	892	206	103	27	100%	5.6	23.0%	11.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.75	4.27	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	195	97	26	100%	5.6	23.0%	11.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.75	4.27	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		32	26	101	487	82	102	10	81%	3.2	16.8%	21.0%	-4.3%	2.1%	6.95	5.52	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	51	200	964	162	203	21	81%	3.2	16.8%	21.0%	-4.3%	2.1%	6.95	5.52	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL NYY Bombers · 48 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.62 (+1.69)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.91%	—	×0.680	18.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.80%	—	×1.250	18.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL NYY Bombers · 36 IPFIP 3.89 → 5.12 (+1.23)K% 21.0% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.99%	—	×0.680	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.47%	—	×1.250	19.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.090	×1.400	1.42%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL NYY Bombers · 16 IPFIP 4.73 → 6.14 (+1.41)K% 26.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.51%	—	×0.680	18.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.30%	—	×1.250	31.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.658	×1.400	1.02%

Result: FIP 4.73 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Tavera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	19.9%	18.0%	3.0%	—	4.93	21.8%	8.2%	108	-0.78	—	—	—
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	81
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	80
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	79
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	78
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	78
Josue Arias L 2024 · 6.86 FIP	19	SP	6.86	13.8%	28.1%	2.5%	.250	7.30	9.3%	-30.1%	13	+0.44	4.73	114	77
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	77
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	77
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	77
Christian Oppor L 2024 · 4.57 FIP	20	SP-	4.57	18.4%	20.6%	0.8%	.389	4.94	21.1%	0.8%	123	+0.37	3.96	161	76
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	76
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	76
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	75
Bryan Magdaleno L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	20	SP	4.62	14.3%	18.0%	0.8%	.290	3.80	22.2%	5.9%	63	-0.82	3.40	191	75
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	75
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	75
Reinold Navarro L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	17	SP	4.92	21.7%	22.6%	1.4%	.211	4.32	29.4%	5.7%	95	-0.60	3.55	119	75
Jacob Schlesener L 2017 · 5.08 FIP	20	SP	5.08	20.2%	23.2%	1.4%	.279	7.35	15.4%	-23.6%	17	+2.27	5.08	132	74
Luis Cesar L 2024 · 6.24 FIP	20	SP	6.24	13.2%	19.8%	3.2%	.163	5.28	15.6%	-9.7%	44	-0.96	4.84	131	73
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	35	22.6%	12.4%	1.10	4.80
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*