Carlos Meza
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.1
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 155 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.3%
IP25
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 15 | 1 | 24 | 100 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 10.9% | 22.5% | 0.0% | 3.80 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 13 | 1 | 29 | 126 | 36 | 18 | 0 | 19.4% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.72 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 11 | 7 | 38 | 184 | 42 | 18 | 4 | 15.5% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 38 | 1 | 67 | 324 | 89 | 43 | 8 | 20.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 6.31 | 4.96 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 40 | 0 | 53 | 256 | 68 | 34 | 3 | 20.9% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 5.98 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 29 | 0 | 29 | 145 | 37 | 29 | 2 | 20.6% | 19.5% | 1.3% | 5.83 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 25 | — | 25 | 105 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 25 | — | 25 | 105 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 10 | 240 | 1135 | 213 | 186 | 22 | 18.8% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 5.55 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 8 | 200 | 946 | 177 | 155 | 18 | 18.8% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 5.55 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Meza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.44 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 25 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 87 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 86 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 84 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 84 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 84 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 83 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 82 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 82 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 82 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .382 | 3.83 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.22 | 2.44 | 171 | 81 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 81 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 81 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.47 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.77 | 3.70 | 229 | 81 |
| Jake Miednik L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.93 | 23.7% | 11.7% | 4.3% | .308 | 6.03 | 10.5% | -4.1% | 32 | +1.10 | 1.55 | 126 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 80 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 80 |
| Miguel Aguilar L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.40 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 1.3% | .273 | 3.59 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 87 | +0.19 | 2.19 | 261 | 80 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.