Carlos Meza — OGILVIE

Carlos Meza P Hillsboro Hops

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%22.0%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	15	1	24	100	16	18	0	7%	1.6	10.9%	22.5%	-11.6%	0.0%	3.80	5.03	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	15	1	24	100	16	18	0	7%	1.6	16.0%	18.0%	-2.0%	0.0%	3.80	4.03	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	13	1	29	126	36	18	0	8%	2.3	19.4%	17.9%	1.6%	0.0%	4.91	3.72	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	13	1	29	126	36	18	0	8%	2.3	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	4.91	2.49	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	7	38	184	42	18	4	64%	3.5	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	3.1%	4.97	5.03	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	11	7	38	184	42	18	4	64%	3.5	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	2.2%	4.97	3.68	—
2022	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	38	1	67	324	89	43	8	3%	1.8	20.3%	15.7%	4.7%	3.0%	6.31	5.03	—
2022	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	38	1	67	324	89	43	8	3%	1.8	27.5%	13.3%	14.2%	2.5%	6.31	3.92	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	256	68	34	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	15.3%	5.5%	1.8%	5.98	4.24	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	53	256	68	34	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	15.3%	5.5%	1.8%	5.98	4.24	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	53	256	68	34	3	0%	1.3	26.6%	13.3%	13.3%	1.2%	5.98	3.19	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	29	145	37	29	2	0%	1.0	20.6%	19.5%	1.1%	1.3%	5.83	4.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	29	145	37	29	2	0%	1.0	20.6%	19.5%	1.1%	1.3%	5.83	4.53	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	29	145	37	29	2	0%	1.0	25.5%	20.0%	5.5%	1.4%	5.83	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	22.0%	14.9%	7.1%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	25	0	26	111	25	16	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	14.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.01	5.00	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10	0	11	46	10	7	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	14.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.01	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	11	7	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.01	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	123	18	0%	1.1	22.3%	14.3%	8.0%	2.9%	5.01	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		146	10	240	1135	213	186	22	7%	1.6	18.8%	16.4%	2.4%	1.9%	5.55	4.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	8	200	946	178	155	18	7%	1.6	18.8%	16.4%	2.4%	1.9%	5.55	4.64	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	22.0%	14.9%	2.9%	—	5.00	22.3%	8.0%	26	-0.10	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	86
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	85
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	83
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	83
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	82
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	80
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	80
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	80
Andy Oliver L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	23.4%	16.9%	1.6%	.283	4.56	19.2%	8.6%	108	+0.40	3.93	165	80
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.25	23.2%	9.2%	137	-0.74	3.98	288	79
Jimmy Burnette L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	24.7%	16.3%	2.3%	.336	3.49	19.7%	4.9%	59	-0.85	3.01	158	79
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	78
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	78
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	78
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	78
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	78
Max Schuh L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	25	SU	4.70	19.2%	13.6%	2.7%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	118	77