Carlos Meza
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 155 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102112vR 121
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%23.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 15 | 1 | 24 | 100 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 7% | 1.6 | 10.9% | 22.5% | -11.6% | 0.0% | 3.80 | 5.03 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 15 | 1 | 24 | 100 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 7% | 1.6 | 16.0% | 18.0% | -2.0% | 0.0% | 3.80 | 4.03 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 13 | 1 | 29 | 126 | 36 | 18 | 0 | 8% | 2.3 | 19.4% | 17.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.72 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs 2 | 13 | 1 | 29 | 126 | 36 | 18 | 0 | 8% | 2.3 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 2.49 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 11 | 7 | 38 | 184 | 42 | 18 | 4 | 64% | 3.5 | 15.5% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.06 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 11 | 7 | 38 | 184 | 42 | 18 | 4 | 64% | 3.5 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 4.97 | 3.68 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 38 | 1 | 67 | 324 | 89 | 43 | 8 | 3% | 1.8 | 20.3% | 15.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 6.31 | 4.94 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 38 | 1 | 67 | 324 | 89 | 43 | 8 | 3% | 1.8 | 27.5% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 6.31 | 3.92 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 53 | 256 | 68 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 15.3% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 5.98 | 4.29 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 53 | 256 | 68 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.6% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.2% | 5.98 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 29 | 145 | 37 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 19.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 5.83 | 4.65 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 29 | 145 | 37 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 20.0% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 5.83 | 4.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 0 | 18 | 74 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.06 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 93 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 146 | 10 | 240 | 1135 | 213 | 186 | 22 | 7% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 5.55 | 4.65 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 8 | 200 | 946 | 178 | 155 | 18 | 7% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 16.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 5.55 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Meza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.44 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 20 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 85 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 83 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 81 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 80 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 80 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 80 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 80 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .341 | 8.96 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.50 | 4.11 | 158 | 80 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 80 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 79 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.13 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.78 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.65 | 4.13 | 265 | 79 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .276 | 5.09 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.79 | 2.65 | 160 | 79 |
| Miguel Aguilar L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.38 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 1.2% | .273 | 3.61 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 87 | +0.23 | 2.21 | 261 | 79 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 79 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 79 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 78 |
| Erik Rivera L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 78 |