Riley Bauman
P
Inland Empire 66ers
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 181 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
K%21.5%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Angels | 2 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 11.25 | 2.70 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Angels | 2 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 11.25 | 2.60 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 20 | 19 | 84 | 419 | 83 | 53 | 4 | 95% | 4.2 | 14.7% | 14.9% | -0.3% | 1.6% | 7.64 | 4.64 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 20 | 19 | 84 | 419 | 83 | 53 | 4 | 95% | 4.2 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 1.0% | 7.64 | 3.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 59 | 247 | 53 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 56 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 59 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 53 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 52 | 221 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 206 | 45 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 61 | 361 | 1526 | 344 | 149 | 46 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.07 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 82 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 21 | 88 | 440 | 65 | 65 | 7 | 95% | 4.0 | 14.9% | 14.7% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 7.80 | 4.55 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 48 | 200 | 1004 | 149 | 147 | 16 | 95% | 4.0 | 14.9% | 14.7% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 7.80 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Bauman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.34 | 22.6% | 13.1% | 182 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 89 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 87 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 86 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 86 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 86 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 86 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 85 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 85 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 85 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 85 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.66 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .266 | 5.22 | 16.1% | 2.8% | 185 | +0.56 | 3.71 | 370 | 84 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .242 | 5.24 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +0.78 | 4.46 | 222 | 84 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 83 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 83 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 83 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 82 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.67 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 112 | +0.76 | 3.67 | 213 | 82 |
| Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.86 | 18.5% | 12.4% | 1.4% | .301 | 5.54 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 185 | +1.68 | 3.86 | 260 | 82 |
| Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 82 |
| David Griffin R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 57 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 1.17 | 4.47 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |