Riley Bauman — OGILVIE

Riley Bauman P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 181 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%17.9%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	2	2	4	21	4	2	0	100%	2.0	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	11.25	2.70	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	2	2	4	21	4	2	0	100%	2.0	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	11.25	2.70	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Angels	2	2	4	21	4	2	0	100%	2.0	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	11.25	2.60	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	20	19	84	419	83	53	4	95%	4.2	14.7%	14.9%	-0.3%	1.4%	7.64	4.52	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	20	19	84	419	83	53	4	95%	4.2	14.7%	14.9%	-0.3%	1.4%	7.64	4.52	—
2024	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	20	19	84	419	83	53	4	95%	4.2	19.8%	12.6%	7.2%	1.0%	7.64	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SEA	1	1	5	21	4	3	1	100%	5.0	17.9%	13.9%	4.1%	2.8%	5.28	5.28	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	77	326	63	40	9	100%	5.5	19.5%	12.3%	7.2%	2.8%	5.04	4.94	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	78	330	67	37	9	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.3%	9.1%	2.8%	4.84	4.74	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	78	330	69	37	9	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.2%	9.7%	2.8%	4.74	4.69	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	77	325	68	36	9	100%	5.9	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.71	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	75	315	65	36	9	100%	6.2	20.7%	11.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.80	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	71	301	62	35	9	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.6%	8.9%	3.1%	4.87	4.93	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	67	283	57	34	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.8%	8.3%	3.3%	5.01	5.11	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	33	139	27	17	4	100%	5.5	19.5%	12.3%	7.2%	2.7%	5.00	4.90	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	52	220	45	25	6	100%	5.8	20.4%	11.3%	9.1%	2.7%	4.80	4.70	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	62	262	54	29	7	100%	6.2	20.8%	11.2%	9.7%	2.8%	4.70	4.65	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	66	279	58	31	8	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.8%	4.68	4.67	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	66	279	58	32	8	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.76	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	65	274	56	32	8	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.6%	8.9%	3.1%	4.83	4.89	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	62	262	53	31	8	100%	6.2	20.2%	11.8%	8.3%	3.2%	4.96	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	405	1712	351	196	50	100%	6.0	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.42	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	173	97	25	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		22	21	88	440	65	65	6	95%	4.0	14.9%	14.7%	0.2%	1.3%	7.80	4.44	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	48	200	1004	149	147	13	95%	4.0	14.9%	14.7%	0.2%	1.3%	7.80	4.44	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Bauman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	17.9%	13.9%	2.8%	—	4.79	20.2%	8.6%	234	-0.49	—	—	—
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	88
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	86
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	86
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	86
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	86
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	85
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	85
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	85
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	84
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	84
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	84
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	83
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	83
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	83
Zach McCambley R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP	4.97	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.29	24.5%	12.5%	123	-1.68	2.55	376	82
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	20.2%	11.8%	1.14	4.90
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77