Riley Bauman — OGILVIE

Riley Bauman P Inland Empire 66ers

+0.6 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 181 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.4 · 2029

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.0%

IP84

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	ROK	ACL Angels	2	2	4	21	4	2	0	—	—	—	11.25	—	—
2024	21	A	Inland Empire 66ers	20	19	84	419	83	53	4	14.7%	14.9%	1.4%	7.64	4.50	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	SEA	15	15	84	353	76	37	10	21.5%	10.5%	2.8%	4.55	4.55	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	SEA	19	19	102	430	95	42	12	22.1%	9.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.39	+1.1
2028	25	MLB	SEA	21	21	115	486	109	45	14	22.5%	9.2%	2.8%	4.35	4.30	+1.3
2029	26	MLB	SEA	22	22	122	516	117	47	15	22.6%	9.1%	2.8%	4.30	4.27	+1.4
2030	27	MLB	SEA	23	23	125	529	120	48	15	22.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.29	4.28	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	SEA	23	23	125	529	120	48	15	22.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.31	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	SEA	22	22	122	517	116	48	15	22.5%	9.2%	2.9%	4.33	4.35	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	SEA	22	22	119	502	112	47	15	22.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.41	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	SEA	21	21	115	484	107	46	15	22.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	SEA	20	20	110	464	101	45	15	21.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.52	4.57	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	SEA	19	19	105	443	95	43	14	21.5%	9.8%	3.2%	4.61	4.67	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	SEA	18	18	100	421	89	42	14	21.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.71	4.78	+0.6
2038	35	MLB	SEA	17	17	94	397	82	41	14	20.7%	10.2%	3.4%	4.83	4.90	+0.4
2039	36	MLB	SEA	16	16	88	372	75	39	13	20.3%	10.5%	3.5%	4.95	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			22	21	88	440	65	65	6	14.9%	14.7%	1.3%	7.80	4.41	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			50	48	200	1004	148	148	14	14.9%	14.7%	1.3%	7.80	4.41	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Bauman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.5%	10.5%	2.8%	—	4.32	22.4%	13.1%	339	-0.23	—	—	—
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	93
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	93
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.41	21.9%	10.5%	63	+0.76	3.65	156	92
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	91
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	91
Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	91
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	91
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	90
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	89
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	89
Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SP-	4.47	20.7%	10.9%	3.2%	.309	3.67	27.7%	16.5%	64	-0.80	3.67	219	89
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	89
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	88
Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	88
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	21.4%	10.8%	3.9%	.236	4.64	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.17	4.22	289	88
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.52	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.40	4.07	663	88
Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.73	3.99	188	88
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	88
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	88
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+1.2	$12M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.1	$11M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$5M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$53M	+$45M