Breyias Dean

3B FCL Marlins

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	18	ROKDSL Miami	170	.258/.414/.348	2	9	38	—	.157/.302/.200
2025	19	ROKMIA	137	.220/.294/.382	4	2	13	—	.126/.184/.220
2026	20	ROKMIA	169	.258/.399/.417	4	7	62	—	.189/.288/.301
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBMIA	279	.190/.264/.283	4	5	56	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBMIA	46	.189/.264/.286	1	1	62	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBMIA	104	.194/.269/.298	2	2	66	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO69

Chase%66

wRC+61

BB%58

wOBA50

Z-Con%45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMisael Urbina (age 21) · Chris Roller (age 21) · Nelson Medina (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 87 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .262 / .280

PA87

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	200	159	35	9	1	3	22	59	17	4	3	220	374	346	720	126	323	30	11	336	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	170	132	34	6	0	2	24	49	12	9	1	258	414	348	763	91	390	29	14	359	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	137	123	27	6	1	4	10	42	3	2	2	220	294	382	676	163	295	31	7	301	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	169	132	34	7	1	4	28	42	3	7	2	258	399	417	815	159	326	25	17	358	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	200	166	24	5	1	2	15	73	17	4	3	145	283	223	506	78	217	36	8	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	170	140	22	3	0	1	17	59	12	9	1	157	302	200	502	43	240	35	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	137	127	16	3	0	3	6	61	3	2	2	126	184	220	404	94	217	45	4	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	169	143	27	5	1	3	17	61	3	7	2	189	288	301	589	112	255	36	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	200	166	24	5	1	2	15	73	17	4	3	145	283	223	506	78	237	36	8	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	200	159	35	9	1	3	22	59	17	4	3	220	374	346	720	126	323	30	11	336	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	170	140	22	3	0	1	17	59	12	9	1	157	302	200	502	43	259	35	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	170	132	34	6	0	2	24	49	12	9	1	258	414	348	763	91	390	29	14	359	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	137	127	16	3	0	3	6	61	3	2	2	126	184	220	404	94	203	45	4	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	137	123	27	6	1	4	10	42	3	2	2	220	294	382	676	163	295	31	7	301	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	169	143	27	5	1	3	17	61	3	7	2	189	288	301	589	112	282	36	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	169	132	34	7	1	4	28	42	3	7	2	258	399	417	815	159	326	25	17	358	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	200	166	24	5	1	2	15	73	17	4	3	145	283	223	506	78	217	36	8	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	170	139	22	3	0	1	17	59	12	9	1	158	302	201	503	43	240	35	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	137	127	16	3	0	3	6	61	3	2	2	126	184	220	404	94	217	45	4	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	169	147	27	5	1	3	17	61	3	7	2	184	288	293	581	109	255	36	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	170	139	22	3	0	1	17	59	12	9	1	158	302	201	503	43	240	35	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	137	127	16	3	0	3	6	61	3	2	2	126	184	220	404	94	217	45	4	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	169	147	27	5	1	3	17	61	3	7	2	184	288	293	581	109	255	36	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	279	252	49	9	2	4	21	83	4	5	1	190	264	283	547	93	262	30	8	251	56	-15	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	135	122	23	4	1	2	10	39	2	3	1	195	270	299	569	103	265	29	7	259	62	-6	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	215	193	39	7	1	4	17	62	3	4	1	200	275	311	586	111	267	29	8	266	66	-9	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	46	41	8	1	0	1	4	13	1	1	0	189	264	286	550	97	257	28	9	252	62	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	104	94	19	3	1	2	8	30	1	2	1	194	269	298	566	104	259	29	8	259	66	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	150	135	27	4	1	3	12	43	2	3	1	200	275	311	586	111	267	29	8	257	48	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	116	17	4	13	52	186	9	13	4	198	274	308	582	109	264	29	8	257	48	-27	+1	+0	+2	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1113	970	166	30	4	16	89	381	41	30	10	171	269	260	529	89	256	34	8	239	48	-19	+1	+0	+2	+9	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	97	18	2	9	52	223	24	18	6	171	269	258	527	87	258	34	8	239	48	-29	+1	+0	+2	+14	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Marlins · 169 PAwOBA .363 → .260 (−102)K% 24.9% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.85%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	35.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.57%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	10.12%
HBP% /PA	1.78%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	1.26%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.012	×0.985	19.97%
Doubles /BIP	7.78%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.012	×0.985	5.58%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.012	×0.985	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	3.41%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .363 → .260; ISO .159 → .118; BABIP .326 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Marlins · 137 PAwOBA .296 → .187 (−109)K% 30.7% → 44.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.66%	÷0.985	×1.440	—	—	44.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.30%	÷1.030	×0.620	—	×0.995	4.37%
HBP% /PA	2.19%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.57%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷0.992	×0.820	×0.954	×0.995	15.51%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷1.048	×0.720	×0.954	×0.995	4.83%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷1.146	×0.720	×0.954	×0.995	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	4.94%	÷0.910	×0.780	—	×0.995	4.21%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 129, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .296 → .187; ISO .163 → .104; BABIP .295 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Miami · 170 PAwOBA .353 → .225 (−128)K% 28.8% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.82%	÷1.016	×1.220	—	—	34.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.12%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.995	9.87%
HBP% /PA	7.06%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.92%
Singles /BIP	31.33%	÷1.002	×0.680	×0.982	×0.995	20.77%
Doubles /BIP	7.23%	÷1.263	×0.600	×0.982	×0.995	3.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.100	×0.600	×0.982	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.41%	÷1.836	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.61%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 267, 1B 100, 2B 153, 3B 120, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .353 → .225; ISO .091 → .034; BABIP .390 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Miami · 200 PAwOBA .331 → .220 (−111)K% 29.5% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.50%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	36.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.00%	÷1.030	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.53%
HBP% /PA	8.50%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	5.99%
Singles /BIP	22.00%	÷0.957	×0.680	×1.013	×1.008	15.96%
Doubles /BIP	9.00%	÷1.039	×0.600	×1.013	×1.008	5.31%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.013	×1.008	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	3.00%	÷0.948	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.50%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .331 → .220; ISO .126 → .069; BABIP .323 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.4	238	4	4	196	268	300	+1	+1	-0.3	-0.2
/162	664	11	12	+2.4	+2.8	-0.9	pk7: 0
#2Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#3Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#5Vic Harris'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	13	36	215*	286*	325*	+4	-7	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	5	13	+1.5	-2.7	-0.7	pk7: -0
#6Jim Mason'71-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	12	2	204*	262*	306*	+18	-14	-4.1	-2.9
/162	664	5	1	+6.7	-5.3	-1.6	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Breyias Dean (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	41→46	48→53	53	188/262/280	92	262	1	1	30%	8%	56	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Ricardo Hurtado 2024 · A	21	39→29	40→45	48→45	46	187/286/283	96	259	7	6	28%	8%	67	-1.1	184/278/286	102	279	10	4	35%	9%	63	-1.3	163/265/259	96	246	11	3	35%	10%	51	-1.2
✕Carlos Dominguez 2021 · A	21	39→26	40→45	50	39	190/272/284	94	273	6	12	31%	5%	61	-1.5	170/238/291	121	318	15	12	49%	5%	49	-2.4	137/207/253	116	269	16	13	53%	5%	27	-1.7
✕Jose D. Hernandez 2024 · A	21	38	39→45	47→45	49	183/269/272	89	233	6	8	23%	8%	57	-1.8	203/275/318	115	275	11	8	29%	7%	69	-0.9	170/260/288	119	235	15	5	33%	11%	53	-0.7
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Danny De Andrade 2024 · A	20	41	42→45	51→50	45	201/277/305	104	269	9	11	28%	8%	67	-1.1	201/270/315	114	278	10	11	30%	7%	66	-1.1	190/254/309	120	266	11	10	31%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	39→33	43→45	51→50	42	193/261/303	109	286	10	12	34%	8%	60	-1.6	207/272/319	112	304	11	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Max George 2017 · A	21	40→39	40→45	47→55	44	191/279/286	95	286	8	10	33%	8%	64	-1.3	187/268/298	111	251	10	19	28%	7%	62	-1.4	166/254/289	123	223	13	23	31%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→39	40	52→50	42	194/257/287	92	271	7	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/277/282	78	309	4	8	32%	9%	61	-1.5	194/278/266	72	301	3	7	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	37→41	42→45	45	39	187/239/300	113	260	9	5	31%	6%	51	-2.3	205/255/326	121	270	13	6	28%	6%	63	-1.4	198/253/321	123	239	15	9	24%	6%	58	-1.1
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Avery Owusu-Asiedu 2024 · A	21	43→42	40→45	51→55	44	206/271/299	93	284	7	8	29%	7%	62	-1.4	178/250/283	105	291	11	18	40%	8%	52	-2.2	172/247/296	124	257	15	23	37%	8%	53	-1.5
✕Allan Cerda 2021 · A	21	43→25	40→55	47→45	44	206/283/296	90	283	7	7	28%	7%	67	-1.1	185/280/351	166	286	19	5	39%	9%	80	-0.2	159/268/326	167	242	20	5	41%	10%	67	-0.7
✕Franklin Labour 2019 · A	21	39	38→45	49→50	45	189/262/271	82	256	4	11	26%	7%	53	-2.1	189/262/284	95	312	7	8	38%	8%	56	-1.9	153/243/273	121	268	13	9	44%	10%	46	-1.1
✕Yassel Pino 2024 · A	22	37	42→45	48→40	45	186/253/292	105	245	10	5	28%	8%	54	-2.0	208/263/318	110	276	11	8	28%	6%	64	-1.3	205/253/313	109	262	15	10	27%	5%	56	-0.5
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8

Breyias Dean

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps