Nelson Medina — OGILVIE

Nelson MedinaCF Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 25 R/R 6'2" / 175 lbs A+ HR +8%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

wRC+†33

AVG/OBP/SLG.170 / .234 / .264

PA190

HR3

K%41

BB%7

MLB%0%

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.8peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-7M		$-40M	-$33M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$33M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Yankees	245	215	26	6	3	1	24	128	6	12	9	.121	.229	.191	.419	.070	.291	52	10	.189	3	-27	-1	+0	+1	+7	-2.1
2019	18	ROK	GCL Yankees West	141	128	16	3	1	2	9	46	3	5	2	.125	.200	.211	.411	.086	.173	33	6	.194	7	-15	+0	+0	+1	+4	-1.0
2021	20	ROK	DSL Yankees 2	142	120	19	5	1	1	17	43	2	13	2	.158	.273	.242	.515	.083	.228	30	12	.239	41	-9	+2	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
2022	21	ROK	FCL Yankees	54	48	8	1	1	1	4	25	2	2	1	.167	.259	.292	.551	.125	.318	46	7	.265	61	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2023	22	A	3 teams	276	251	49	9	4	5	23	118	1	11	4	.195	.265	.323	.588	.127	.341	43	8	.255	54	-14	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.5
2024	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	173	163	12	2	1	0	7	104	2	8	0	.074	.122	.098	.220	.025	.200	60	4	.100	-65	-32	+2	+0	+1	+5	-2.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	NYY	190	173	30	6	1	3	13	78	2	4	1	.173	.239	.272	.511	.098	.286	41	7	.229	33	-14	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 10%	NYY	293	267	49	9	2	6	21	115	3	6	1	.184	.251	.300	.550	.116	.289	39	7	.245	46	-18	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.8
2028	27	MLB 25%	NYY	336	305	58	11	2	7	25	128	3	7	2	.190	.258	.308	.566	.118	.289	38	7	.251	50	-19	+1	+0	+1	+10	-0.8
2029	28	MLB 37%	NYY	362	329	61	11	2	7	27	136	3	7	1	.185	.253	.295	.548	.109	.289	38	7	.253	52	-20	+1	-1	+1	+10	-0.8
2030	29	MLB 51%	NYY	369	335	64	12	2	8	28	138	3	6	1	.191	.260	.310	.570	.119	.288	37	8	.253	52	-20	+1	-1	+1	+10	-0.9
2031	30	MLB 68%	NYY	374	340	63	12	2	7	28	141	3	6	1	.185	.253	.294	.547	.109	.287	38	7	.250	50	-21	+1	-2	+1	+11	-1.1
2032	31	MLB 86%	NYY	363	330	60	11	2	7	27	139	3	4	0	.182	.250	.291	.541	.109	.285	38	7	.246	47	-22	+1	-3	+1	+10	-1.3
2033	32	MLB	NYY	346	314	56	10	2	6	26	134	3	2	0	.178	.248	.280	.528	.102	.283	39	8	.242	43	-22	+0	-4	+1	+10	-1.5
2034	33	MLB	NYY	318	288	50	9	1	5	24	125	3	1	0	.174	.244	.264	.508	.090	.281	39	8	.236	39	-22	+0	-4	+1	+9	-1.6
2035	34	MLB	NYY	275	251	43	8	1	4	20	111	2	0	0	.171	.238	.259	.497	.088	.279	40	7	.230	34	-20	+0	-5	+1	+8	-1.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4257	3857	664	125	28	70	323	1709	44	94	25	.172	.244	.274	.518	.101	.283	40	8	.235	38	-299	+9	-20	+15	+121	-17.7
/ 162G	—			650	589	101	19	4	11	49	261	7	14	4	.171	.244	.273	.517	.102	.280	40	8	.235	38	-46	+1	-3	+2	+18	-2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Yankees	245	201	41	10	5	1	38	89	6	12	9	.204	.347	.318	.665	.114	.360	36	16	.312	97	-1	-1	—	—	+7	0.5
2019	18	ROK	GCL Yankees West	141	122	24	5	2	3	15	32	3	5	2	.197	.300	.344	.644	.148	.239	23	11	.292	82	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2021	20	ROK	DSL Yankees 2	142	108	26	8	1	1	29	28	2	13	2	.241	.410	.361	.771	.120	.305	20	20	.353	128	+5	+2	—	—	+4	1.1
2022	21	ROK	FCL Yankees	54	45	14	2	3	2	7	17	2	2	1	.311	.426	.622	1.048	.311	.462	31	13	.449	202	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	47	45	7	0	1	0	2	15	0	2	1	.156	.191	.200	.391	.044	.233	32	4	.180	-4	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	192	163	45	9	3	6	27	58	1	8	3	.276	.382	.479	.861	.202	.390	30	14	.380	149	+11	+0	—	—	+5	1.7
2023	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	37	31	5	1	0	1	6	17	0	1	0	.161	.297	.290	.588	.129	.308	46	16	.277	71	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	173	156	18	3	1	0	14	74	2	8	0	.115	.198	.147	.345	.032	.217	43	8	.170	-12	-22	+2	—	—	+5	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Medina (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	.170/.234/.264	.093	.286	3	4	41%	7%	33	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	.177/.239/.273	.095	.270	8	7	36%	7%	37	-2.6	.200/.266/.312	.112	.290	11	7	33%	7%	59	-1.1	.191/.265/.302	.110	.270	10	5	31%	8%	52	-0.8
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	35→34	45	47→45	31	.179/.230/.302	.123	.296	13	8	42%	5%	41	-2.3	.186/.258/.305	.119	.310	12	9	41%	7%	55	-1.4	.167/.257/.278	.111	.280	12	8	41%	8%	44	-1.4
✕Cadyn Grenier 2022 · AAA	25	40→37	42→40	48→50	39	.191/.265/.291	.100	.313	9	10	39%	8%	54	-1.4	.196/.279/.296	.100	.292	8	13	33%	9%	61	-1.0	.175/.272/.270	.095	.250	7	16	30%	10%	50	-1.1
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	34→25	42→55	45→50	35	.173/.235/.271	.098	.281	10	6	40%	6%	36	-2.7	.198/.254/.317	.119	.290	12	10	34%	5%	56	-1.3	.201/.254/.332	.131	.279	12	11	31%	4%	55	-0.5
✕Ryan Metzler 2018 · AA	25	38	37→40	50	35	.177/.235/.246	.069	.305	4	12	41%	6%	28	-3.2	.198/.252/.287	.089	.299	8	13	34%	6%	46	-2.0	.187/.242/.269	.082	.278	9	15	34%	6%	35	-1.1
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	38	42→50	52→45	40	.189/.250/.291	.102	.286	10	11	36%	7%	46	-2.0	.204/.266/.313	.109	.307	11	9	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.164/.224/.258	.094	.235	10	0	33%	7%	25	-0.6
✕Dylan Rosa 2021 · AA	25	38→31	44→45	49→45	37	.192/.247/.304	.112	.288	12	9	36%	6%	49	-1.8	.192/.246/.327	.135	.337	16	8	45%	6%	55	-1.4	.158/.215/.300	.142	.290	19	6	50%	5%	32	-1.0
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA	25	42→32	43→40	46→50	37	.201/.264/.310	.109	.312	11	11	37%	6%	58	-1.2	.206/.279/.294	.088	.335	7	14	38%	7%	60	-1.0	.202/.285/.272	.070	.341	4	17	38%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Connor Lien 2019 · AA	25	34→44	44→45	50→55	29	.167/.225/.285	.118	.311	12	16	48%	5%	36	-2.7	.170/.240/.305	.135	.373	16	12	54%	7%	47	-1.9	.121/.208/.259	.138	.300	18	9	61%	8%	20	-1.3
✕Jordan Betts 2017 · AA	25	35→29	39→45	46→40	35	.177/.223/.265	.088	.275	7	5	37%	5%	27	-3.3	.194/.242/.308	.114	.294	12	4	36%	6%	47	-1.9	.190/.238/.309	.119	.280	15	3	37%	5%	45	-1.3
✕Gift Ngoepe 2015 · AA	25	41→42	41→45	51→50	40	.197/.261/.298	.101	.308	8	15	37%	8%	53	-1.5	.207/.263/.313	.106	.319	9	9	35%	6%	57	-1.2	.199/.256/.303	.104	.307	8	5	36%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Jeremy Eierman 2022 · AA	25	35→26	46→55	49→45	32	.179/.235/.308	.128	.302	15	11	44%	5%	46	-2.0	.183/.237/.338	.155	.288	21	9	43%	5%	54	-1.4	.154/.206/.301	.147	.224	23	6	42%	5%	29	-1.3
✕Alex McKenna 2023 · AAA	25	42→38	43→40	50	39	.193/.269/.303	.110	.330	11	14	42%	8%	59	-1.1	.200/.274/.306	.106	.335	10	11	40%	8%	61	-1.0	.167/.251/.258	.090	.289	10	3	42%	9%	36	-0.8
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	40	42→45	48→55	36	.201/.246/.303	.102	.283	11	8	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.195/.249/.317	.122	.283	14	20	35%	6%	53	-1.5	.172/.233/.265	.093	.260	10	26	36%	6%	31	-1.4
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	39→42	42→45	47→50	39	.194/.249/.297	.104	.281	10	12	34%	6%	48	-1.9	.200/.254/.303	.103	.309	9	13	36%	6%	51	-1.7	.206/.258/.305	.100	.300	8	9	32%	6%	50	-1.1
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	38	43→45	51→50	40	.188/.263/.297	.108	.296	12	13	38%	8%	55	-1.4	.201/.277/.307	.106	.299	10	14	34%	8%	63	-0.9	.196/.298/.302	.106	.259	11	24	26%	10%	67	-0.1
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	37	39→45	50→55	40	.183/.248/.270	.087	.268	6	14	32%	6%	40	-2.4	.194/.274/.324	.130	.304	14	16	38%	9%	67	-0.5	.179/.266/.318	.140	.290	17	19	41%	9%	60	-0.7
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→29	40→45	48→55	36	.179/.243/.270	.091	.285	8	11	38%	6%	39	-2.5	.186/.268/.305	.119	.285	12	20	36%	9%	59	-1.1	.181/.273/.314	.132	.266	14	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	38	40→45	45→50	44	.183/.273/.272	.089	.281	8	7	35%	9%	53	-1.5	.192/.275/.296	.104	.296	10	10	35%	9%	59	-1.1	.166/.255/.274	.108	.249	11	13	35%	9%	43	-1.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)