Nelson Medina — OGILVIE

Nelson MedinaCF Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 25 R/R 6'2" / 175 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 190 proj PA

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .241 / .272

PA16

HR0

K%39

BB%7

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	17	ROK	DSL Yankees	—	245	201	41	10	5	1	38	89	6	12	9	204	347	318	665	114	360	36	16	312	98	-1	-1	—	—	+5	0.3
2019	18	ROK	GCL Yankees West	—	141	122	24	5	2	3	15	32	3	5	2	197	300	344	644	148	239	23	11	292	84	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2021	20	ROK	DSL Yankees 2	—	142	108	26	8	1	1	29	28	2	13	2	241	410	361	771	120	305	20	20	353	125	+4	+2	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	21	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	54	45	14	2	3	2	7	17	2	2	1	311	426	622	1.048	311	462	31	13	449	190	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2023	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	47	45	7	0	1	0	2	15	0	2	1	156	191	200	391	44	233	32	4	180	8	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	192	163	45	9	3	6	27	58	1	8	3	276	382	479	861	202	390	30	14	380	143	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.5
2023	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	37	31	5	1	0	1	6	17	0	1	0	161	297	290	588	129	308	46	16	277	74	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	173	156	18	3	1	0	14	74	2	8	0	115	198	147	345	32	217	43	8	170	1	-20	+2	—	—	+4	-1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees	—	245	215	26	6	3	1	24	128	6	12	9	121	229	191	419	70	280	52	10	189	14	-25	-1	—	—	+5	-2.1
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	—	141	128	16	3	1	2	9	46	3	5	2	125	200	211	411	86	177	33	6	194	17	-14	+0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	—	142	120	21	6	1	1	17	42	2	13	2	175	288	267	554	92	228	30	12	243	51	-8	+2	—	—	+3	-0.4
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	54	48	9	1	2	1	4	25	2	2	1	188	278	354	632	167	347	46	7	274	72	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	22	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	47	46	6	0	1	0	1	18	0	2	1	130	149	174	323	43	210	38	2	140	-19	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	192	172	36	8	2	4	18	84	1	8	3	209	288	349	637	140	369	44	9	281	76	-5	+0	—	—	+4	-0.1
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	173	162	12	2	1	0	8	105	2	8	0	74	128	99	227	25	192	61	5	105	-43	-29	+2	—	—	+4	-2.5
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees	—	245	215	26	6	3	1	24	128	6	12	9	121	229	191	419	70	291	52	10	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees	—	245	201	41	10	5	1	38	89	6	12	9	204	347	318	665	114	360	36	16	312	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	—	141	128	16	3	1	2	9	46	3	5	2	125	200	211	411	86	173	33	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	—	141	122	24	5	2	3	15	32	3	5	2	197	300	344	644	148	239	23	11	292	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	—	142	120	21	6	1	1	17	42	2	13	2	175	288	267	554	92	250	30	12	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 2	—	142	108	26	8	1	1	29	28	2	13	2	241	410	361	771	120	305	20	20	353	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	54	48	9	1	2	1	4	25	2	2	1	188	278	354	632	167	364	46	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	54	45	14	2	3	2	7	17	2	2	1	311	426	622	1.048	311	462	31	13	449	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	276	252	49	9	4	5	22	118	1	11	4	194	262	321	583	127	338	43	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	276	239	57	10	4	7	35	90	1	11	4	238	338	402	740	163	350	33	13	332	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	173	162	12	2	1	0	8	105	2	8	0	74	128	99	227	25	207	61	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	173	156	18	3	1	0	14	74	2	8	0	115	198	147	345	32	217	43	8	170	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees	—	245	213	26	6	3	1	24	128	6	12	9	122	229	192	421	70	280	52	10	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	—	141	128	16	3	1	2	9	46	3	5	2	125	200	211	411	86	177	33	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	—	142	122	21	6	1	1	17	42	2	13	2	172	288	262	550	90	228	30	12	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	54	48	9	1	2	1	4	25	2	2	1	188	278	354	632	167	347	46	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	276	251	49	9	4	5	22	118	1	11	4	195	262	323	585	127	338	43	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	173	161	12	2	1	0	8	105	2	8	0	75	128	99	227	25	192	61	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	276	251	49	9	4	5	22	118	1	11	4	195	262	323	585	127	338	43	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	173	161	12	2	1	0	8	105	2	8	0	75	128	99	227	25	192	61	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	25	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	133	188	133	321		285	38	6	236	46	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	30%	293	267	50	9	2	6	21	109	3	6	1	187	254	303	558	116	286	37	7	249	54	-16	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.8
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	42%	336	305	59	11	2	7	25	121	3	7	2	193	261	311	573	118	287	36	7	255	58	-17	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	30%	89	82	15	3	0	2	6	33	1	2	0	183	247	293	540	110	288	37	7	245	54	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	42%	140	128	25	5	1	3	10	51	1	3	1	195	259	320	579	125	288	36	7	251	58	-7	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	229	210	40	8	1	5	16	84	2	5	1	190	254	310	564	119	287	37	7	249	37	-12	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	114	23	3	14	45	238	6	14	3	191	255	310	565	119	288	37	7	249	37	-33	+2	+0	+2	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	1676	1512	244	47	16	23	131	700	22	64	21	161	238	259	498	98	277	42	8	223	37	-34	+1	+0	+2	+14	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	94	18	6	9	51	271	9	25	8	160	238	258	496	97	275	42	8	223	37	-34	+1	+0	+2	+14	-1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	230	4	5	190	254	301	+1	+2	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	13	14	+2.4	+7.2	-1.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Medina (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	177/241/272	95	285	3	4	39%	7%	46	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	35	45	48→45	31	180/229/304	123	289	13	8	41%	4%	48	-2.5	194/266/310	116	313	12	9	39%	7%	64	-1.3	173/260/278	104	284	10	8	39%	8%	51	-1.5
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	43→50	48→50	38	180/243/288	107	283	11	11	39%	7%	50	-2.3	191/251/293	102	287	8	10	34%	7%	53	-2.1	154/212/246	92	221	3	6	30%	7%	25	-1.0
✕Cadyn Grenier 2022 · AAA	25	41→38	40	48→50	40	193/269/287	94	312	8	10	38%	8%	60	-1.6	198/279/295	97	292	8	13	32%	9%	65	-1.2	174/270/262	88	250	6	16	30%	10%	53	-1.4
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	34→25	41→50	45→50	35	172/236/266	94	276	10	6	40%	6%	42	-2.9	201/258/317	116	289	11	10	33%	5%	62	-1.4	201/254/329	128	278	11	11	31%	4%	60	-0.5
✕Dylan Rosa 2021 · AA	25	38→30	44→45	50→45	36	193/247/304	111	290	12	9	36%	6%	55	-2.0	192/247/322	130	336	15	8	45%	6%	59	-1.6	160/217/294	135	287	17	6	48%	5%	39	-1.1
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	39→41	42→45	47→50	39	194/249/297	103	281	10	12	34%	6%	54	-2.0	198/251/298	100	305	9	13	36%	6%	55	-2.0	203/255/298	95	293	7	9	31%	6%	54	-1.3
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→29	45	50	37	194/252/314	121	284	13	12	35%	6%	59	-1.6	211/268/301	90	318	8	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/286	69	332	7	24	34%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	38	40→45	45→50	44	182/273/271	90	286	8	7	36%	9%	59	-1.7	195/278/297	102	296	9	11	34%	8%	65	-1.2	169/259/271	102	251	9	13	34%	9%	50	-1.2
✕Jordan Betts 2017 · AA	25	35→28	40→45	46→40	35	176/222/267	91	273	7	4	37%	5%	36	-3.3	194/242/306	112	292	12	4	36%	6%	53	-2.1	187/235/301	114	276	14	3	37%	5%	48	-1.6
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/260/306	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/263/313	108	295	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/310	115	279	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	39	43→45	51→50	40	191/266/297	106	296	11	14	37%	8%	61	-1.5	204/277/306	102	299	9	14	32%	8%	67	-1.1	198/298/294	96	261	9	24	25%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Alex McKenna 2023 · AAA	25	42→39	43→40	50	39	196/271/305	109	327	10	14	40%	8%	65	-1.2	205/278/312	107	335	10	11	38%	8%	68	-1.0	172/255/264	92	291	10	3	41%	9%	46	-0.8
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	42→45	45→50	39	185/255/296	111	276	9	10	35%	7%	57	-1.8	191/270/296	105	294	8	13	35%	8%	62	-1.4	163/254/261	99	255	6	16	35%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Edwin Díaz 2021 · AA	25	37→33	45→50	49→40	38	187/249/317	130	285	12	5	37%	7%	59	-1.7	176/231/307	131	297	16	5	44%	6%	50	-2.3	154/228/294	140	225	19	5	40%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Ryan Metzler 2018 · AA	25	38	36→40	50	34	176/233/243	67	308	4	12	42%	6%	35	-3.4	198/251/284	86	294	8	13	33%	6%	51	-2.2	186/240/263	77	270	8	15	33%	6%	40	-1.2
✕Cooper Johnson 2023 · AA	25	36	38→45	45→40	43	170/258/250	80	292	5	5	40%	9%	48	-2.5	184/267/299	115	295	12	6	38%	9%	62	-1.4	170/259/294	123	253	14	4	36%	10%	55	-0.9
✕Gift Ngoepe 2015 · AA	25	41→42	41→45	51→50	40	198/259/300	102	305	8	14	36%	7%	58	-1.7	206/261/308	102	315	8	8	35%	6%	61	-1.5	163/241/259	96	289	8	5	43%	9%	41	-1.2
✕Connor Lien 2019 · AA	25	35→45	43→45	49→55	31	170/229/281	111	303	11	15	45%	5%	43	-2.8	175/247/305	130	363	14	11	52%	7%	56	-1.9	129/217/262	133	298	16	9	57%	8%	33	-1.3
✕Connor Kopach 2021 · AAA	26	39→33	44→45	54→55	37	193/254/311	117	297	12	18	37%	6%	59	-1.6	188/257/291	103	357	11	16	46%	7%	56	-1.9	114/195/190	76	244	11	21	54%	8%	8	-1.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps