Danny De Andrade
2B Cedar Rapids Kernels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+MIN | 117 | .243/.333/.359 | 2 | 5 | 53 | — | .190/.274/.257 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+MIN | 495 | .229/.318/.387 | 9 | 15 | 56 | — | .188/.263/.308 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+MIN | 474 | .242/.314/.418 | 15 | 9 | 56 | — | .195/.255/.326 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBMIN | 1 | .188/.251/.309 | 0 | 0 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBMIN | 133 | .193/.257/.319 | 3 | 2 | 61 | -0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBMIN | 209 | .196/.261/.326 | 5 | 3 | 64 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 200 | 178 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 27 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 264 | 342 | 348 | 690 | 84 | 309 | 14 | 8 | 315 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 204 | 178 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 242 | 335 | 371 | 706 | 129 | 277 | 17 | 9 | 321 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 475 | 394 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 58 | 103 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 244 | 361 | 396 | 756 | 152 | 294 | 22 | 12 | 338 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 117 | 103 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 243 | 333 | 359 | 693 | 117 | 284 | 17 | 7 | 318 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 495 | 437 | 100 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 115 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 229 | 318 | 387 | 705 | 158 | 290 | 23 | 9 | 317 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 28 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 286 | 259 | 545 | 368 | 29 | 0 | 252 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 446 | 399 | 96 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 123 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 241 | 316 | 429 | 745 | 188 | 307 | 28 | 8 | 329 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 200 | 182 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 170 | 241 | 225 | 466 | 55 | 200 | 17 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 204 | 185 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 178 | 251 | 259 | 511 | 81 | 218 | 24 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 475 | 412 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 144 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 206 | 298 | 325 | 624 | 119 | 271 | 30 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 117 | 105 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 274 | 257 | 531 | 67 | 245 | 22 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 495 | 448 | 84 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 149 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 188 | 263 | 308 | 571 | 121 | 260 | 30 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 28 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 250 | 222 | 472 | 353 | 36 | 0 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 446 | 409 | 79 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 156 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 193 | 255 | 333 | 588 | 139 | 270 | 35 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 200 | 182 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 170 | 241 | 225 | 466 | 55 | 208 | 17 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 200 | 178 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 27 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 264 | 342 | 348 | 690 | 84 | 309 | 14 | 8 | 315 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 204 | 185 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 178 | 251 | 259 | 511 | 81 | 228 | 24 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 204 | 178 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 242 | 335 | 371 | 706 | 129 | 277 | 17 | 9 | 321 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 475 | 412 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 144 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 206 | 298 | 325 | 624 | 119 | 284 | 30 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 475 | 394 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 58 | 103 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 244 | 361 | 396 | 756 | 152 | 294 | 22 | 12 | 338 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 117 | 105 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 274 | 257 | 531 | 67 | 244 | 22 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 117 | 103 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 243 | 333 | 359 | 693 | 117 | 284 | 17 | 7 | 318 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 495 | 448 | 84 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 149 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 188 | 263 | 308 | 571 | 121 | 263 | 30 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 495 | 437 | 100 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 115 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 229 | 318 | 387 | 705 | 158 | 290 | 23 | 9 | 317 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 474 | 436 | 85 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 166 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 195 | 255 | 326 | 580 | 131 | 282 | 35 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 474 | 426 | 103 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 131 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 242 | 314 | 418 | 732 | 176 | 311 | 28 | 8 | 324 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 200 | 181 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 171 | 241 | 227 | 468 | 55 | 200 | 17 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 204 | 184 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 179 | 251 | 261 | 512 | 82 | 218 | 24 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 475 | 418 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 144 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 203 | 298 | 321 | 619 | 117 | 271 | 30 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 117 | 104 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 192 | 274 | 260 | 533 | 67 | 245 | 22 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 495 | 446 | 84 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 149 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 188 | 263 | 309 | 573 | 121 | 260 | 30 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 474 | 436 | 85 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 166 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 195 | 255 | 326 | 580 | 131 | 275 | 35 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 117 | 104 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 192 | 274 | 260 | 533 | 67 | 245 | 22 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 495 | 446 | 84 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 149 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 188 | 263 | 309 | 573 | 121 | 260 | 30 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 474 | 436 | 85 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 166 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 195 | 255 | 326 | 580 | 131 | 275 | 35 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 572 | 523 | 98 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 33 | 184 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 188 | 251 | 309 | 560 | 120 | 263 | 32 | 6 | 252 | 57 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 251 | 309 | 560 | 121 | 263 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 57 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 30% | 439 | 402 | 78 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 138 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 193 | 257 | 319 | 575 | 126 | 265 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 44% | 473 | 433 | 84 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 147 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 196 | 261 | 325 | 586 | 129 | 267 | 31 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 51% | 492 | 449 | 89 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 150 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 198 | 264 | 329 | 593 | 131 | 268 | 30 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 52% | 499 | 456 | 90 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 151 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 200 | 266 | 331 | 597 | 131 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 53% | 498 | 454 | 90 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 150 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 267 | 330 | 597 | 130 | 269 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -19 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +11 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 30% | 133 | 122 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 257 | 319 | 576 | 126 | 265 | 32 | 6 | 259 | 61 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 44% | 209 | 190 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 65 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 261 | 326 | 587 | 130 | 267 | 31 | 6 | 264 | 64 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 51% | 250 | 228 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 76 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 199 | 264 | 330 | 594 | 131 | 268 | 30 | 6 | 267 | 66 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 52% | 262 | 239 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 79 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 200 | 266 | 331 | 597 | 131 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 53% | 265 | 242 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 80 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 267 | 331 | 598 | 130 | 269 | 30 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -10 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1119 | 1021 | 203 | 38 | 9 | 26 | 71 | 342 | 18 | 16 | 7 | 199 | 263 | 330 | 593 | 131 | 269 | 31 | 6 | 266 | 61 | -45 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +24 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 118 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 41 | 199 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 199 | 262 | 329 | 591 | 130 | 270 | 31 | 6 | 266 | 61 | -26 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4576 | 4154 | 805 | 157 | 39 | 86 | 290 | 1371 | 100 | 98 | 36 | 194 | 263 | 312 | 575 | 119 | 264 | 30 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -109 | +1 | -1 | +9 | +57 | -4.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 114 | 22 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 195 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 193 | 262 | 312 | 574 | 119 | 264 | 30 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -27 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 446 PAwOBA .322 → .254 (−68)K% 27.6% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 18.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 5.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.40% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .322 → .254; ISO .188 → .143; BABIP .307 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 28 PAwOBA .246 → .216 (−30)K% 28.6% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 3.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 35.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .246 → .216; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .368 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 495 PAwOBA .310 → .251 (−59)K% 23.2% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.23% | ÷0.979 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.69% | ÷0.989 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 2.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.70% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 16.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.07% | ÷1.088 | ×0.810 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.943 | ×0.850 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 2.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .310 → .251; ISO .158 → .124; BABIP .290 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 117 PAwOBA .310 → .246 (−64)K% 17.1% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.09% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.84% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 4.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.13% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 4.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.48% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 18.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.119 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.146 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.41% | ÷1.191 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.69% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .310 → .246; ISO .117 → .080; BABIP .284 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 475 PAwOBA .336 → .275 (−61)K% 21.7% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.68% | ÷0.969 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.21% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.96% | ÷0.938 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 20.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.78% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .336 → .275; ISO .152 → .124; BABIP .294 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Twins · 204 PAwOBA .314 → .225 (−89)K% 16.7% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.016 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.31% | ÷0.984 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | ×0.960 | ×1.022 | 16.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.925 | ×0.720 | ×0.960 | ×1.022 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.972 | ×0.720 | ×0.960 | ×1.022 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.282 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.73% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 85, 3B 94, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .314 → .225; ISO .129 → .086; BABIP .277 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Twins · 200 PAwOBA .309 → .204 (−104)K% 13.5% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.50% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.85% | ÷0.986 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 14.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.61% | ÷0.971 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 119, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .309 → .204; ISO .084 → .050; BABIP .309 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).