Bryson Ware
3B Reading Fightin Phils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/APHI | 414 | .226/.316/.377 | 10 | 14 | 40 | — | .167/.241/.273 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA/A+PHI | 368 | .242/.327/.404 | 11 | 7 | 48 | — | .186/.244/.298 |
| 2026 | 25 | AA/A+PHI | 322 | .246/.324/.470 | 16 | 11 | 70 | — | .207/.264/.377 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBPHI | 3 | .201/.258/.347 | 0 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBPHI | 44 | .202/.260/.348 | 1 | 1 | 67 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 78 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 273 | 362 | 635 | 174 | 217 | 27 | 9 | 283 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 20 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 300 | 125 | 425 | 167 | 20 | 15 | 232 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 106 | 99 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 293 | 340 | 465 | 804 | 172 | 418 | 29 | 6 | 353 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 308 | 264 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 74 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 201 | 308 | 345 | 653 | 144 | 239 | 24 | 11 | 297 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 87 | 82 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 280 | 322 | 476 | 797 | 195 | 385 | 31 | 6 | 350 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 281 | 240 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 83 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 229 | 329 | 379 | 708 | 150 | 309 | 30 | 10 | 317 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 302 | 267 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 16 | 30 | 92 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 255 | 332 | 494 | 827 | 240 | 319 | 30 | 10 | 358 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 200 | 111 | 311 | 133 | 15 | 10 | 160 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 78 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 141 | 208 | 254 | 461 | 113 | 184 | 36 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 20 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 250 | 118 | 368 | 128 | 30 | 10 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 106 | 101 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 218 | 255 | 347 | 601 | 129 | 342 | 38 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 308 | 274 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 103 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 150 | 236 | 248 | 484 | 99 | 204 | 33 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 87 | 83 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 276 | 386 | 661 | 145 | 366 | 37 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 281 | 255 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 108 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 169 | 235 | 271 | 505 | 102 | 251 | 38 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 302 | 276 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 112 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 214 | 272 | 395 | 667 | 181 | 288 | 37 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 20 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 150 | 105 | 255 | 112 | 20 | 5 | 114 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 98 | 88 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 125 | 206 | 216 | 422 | 91 | 170 | 35 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 98 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 176 | 278 | 318 | 596 | 141 | 207 | 26 | 10 | 272 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 375 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 142 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 168 | 241 | 275 | 516 | 107 | 245 | 34 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 414 | 363 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 39 | 105 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 226 | 316 | 377 | 694 | 152 | 287 | 25 | 9 | 312 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 338 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 141 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 186 | 245 | 299 | 543 | 112 | 286 | 38 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 322 | 78 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 110 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 242 | 327 | 404 | 731 | 161 | 328 | 30 | 9 | 325 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 295 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 116 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 203 | 261 | 373 | 634 | 169 | 281 | 36 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 285 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 95 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 246 | 324 | 470 | 794 | 225 | 303 | 30 | 10 | 345 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 98 | 89 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 124 | 206 | 213 | 420 | 90 | 173 | 35 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 375 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 142 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 168 | 241 | 275 | 516 | 107 | 239 | 34 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 339 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 141 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 186 | 245 | 298 | 542 | 112 | 278 | 38 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 296 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 116 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 203 | 261 | 372 | 633 | 169 | 277 | 36 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 375 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 142 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 168 | 241 | 275 | 516 | 107 | 239 | 34 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 339 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 141 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 186 | 245 | 298 | 542 | 112 | 278 | 38 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 296 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 116 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 203 | 261 | 372 | 633 | 169 | 277 | 36 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 2% | 372 | 343 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 128 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 199 | 256 | 339 | 595 | 140 | 278 | 34 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 258 | 347 | 605 | 146 | 279 | 33 | 0 | 269 | 66 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 27% | 164 | 152 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 258 | 340 | 598 | 140 | 278 | 34 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 27% | 44 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 260 | 348 | 608 | 146 | 279 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 67 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 227 | 268 | 496 | 98 | 240 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 52 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 104 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 222 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 172 | 228 | 271 | 498 | 99 | 241 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 52 | -26 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1521 | 1392 | 256 | 48 | 8 | 38 | 94 | 542 | 21 | 42 | 15 | 184 | 246 | 312 | 558 | 128 | 264 | 36 | 6 | 246 | 52 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 232 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 183 | 245 | 309 | 555 | 126 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 246 | 52 | -26 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 302 PAwOBA .352 → .282 (−70)K% 30.5% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.46% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 7.05% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .352 → .282; ISO .240 → .183; BABIP .319 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 20 PAwOBA .157 → .114 (−43)K% 15.0% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 19.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 11.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .157 → .114; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .133 → .112. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 281 PAwOBA .312 → .226 (−86)K% 29.5% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.54% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.32% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.49% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.29% | ÷0.966 | ×0.870 | ×0.978 | ×0.978 | 19.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.64% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | ×0.978 | ×0.978 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.978 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.10% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 4.20% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .312 → .226; ISO .150 → .113; BABIP .309 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 87 PAwOBA .340 → .281 (−59)K% 31.0% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.03% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.75% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.45% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 25.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.82% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.10% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .340 → .281; ISO .195 → .147; BABIP .385 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 308 PAwOBA .293 → .218 (−75)K% 24.0% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.03% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.37% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.980 | 15.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.79% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.980 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.74% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 3.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .293 → .218; ISO .144 → .100; BABIP .239 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 106 PAwOBA .344 → .254 (−90)K% 29.2% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.25% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.66% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 3.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.035 | ×0.870 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 21.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.946 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 5.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.926 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.38% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 89, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .344 → .254; ISO .172 → .133; BABIP .418 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AClearwater Threshers · 78 PAwOBA .279 → .210 (−69)K% 26.9% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.58% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 13.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 4.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .279 → .210; ISO .174 → .127; BABIP .217 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Phillies · 20 PAwOBA .228 → .153 (−75)K% 20.0% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 3.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 12.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .228 → .153; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .128. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).