Jake Rucker
3B Wichita Wind Surge| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAMIN | 515 | .261/.323/.372 | 9 | 5 | 53 | — | .207/.258/.301 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAMIN | 322 | .236/.320/.356 | 7 | 8 | 49 | — | .195/.260/.294 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AA/A/ROKMIN | 288 | .288/.415/.541 | 13 | 11 | 107 | — | .246/.338/.452 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBMIN | 3 | .226/.297/.364 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 28 | MLBMIN | 67 | .225/.296/.361 | 2 | 1 | 86 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 85 | 68 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 265 | 390 | 324 | 714 | 59 | 327 | 19 | 12 | 326 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 30 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 207 | 231 | 438 | 115 | 125 | 33 | 7 | 201 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 239 | 206 | 54 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 52 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 262 | 350 | 447 | 797 | 184 | 316 | 22 | 9 | 348 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 260 | 218 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 53 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 225 | 342 | 330 | 673 | 106 | 283 | 20 | 13 | 309 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 476 | 420 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 123 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 248 | 326 | 381 | 707 | 133 | 324 | 26 | 9 | 315 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 515 | 468 | 122 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 77 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 261 | 323 | 372 | 695 | 111 | 294 | 15 | 7 | 312 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 322 | 284 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 43 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 236 | 320 | 356 | 675 | 120 | 253 | 13 | 10 | 305 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 49 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 367 | 333 | 701 | 128 | 318 | 33 | 20 | 330 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 205 | 170 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 40 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 265 | 378 | 518 | 896 | 253 | 285 | 20 | 13 | 386 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 15 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 583 | 667 | 1.000 | 1.667 | 417 | 600 | 7 | 20 | 691 | 262 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 19 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 583 | 737 | 1.083 | 1.820 | 500 | 600 | 5 | 32 | 712 | 254 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 85 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 341 | 296 | 637 | 56 | 301 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 30 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 172 | 222 | 395 | 111 | 120 | 40 | 3 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 239 | 212 | 47 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 66 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 222 | 295 | 377 | 672 | 156 | 274 | 28 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 260 | 229 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 73 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 192 | 280 | 288 | 568 | 96 | 258 | 28 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 476 | 431 | 89 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 148 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 206 | 271 | 309 | 579 | 102 | 287 | 31 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 515 | 478 | 99 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 97 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 207 | 258 | 301 | 560 | 94 | 237 | 19 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 322 | 293 | 57 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 56 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 195 | 260 | 294 | 554 | 99 | 211 | 17 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 49 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 306 | 310 | 616 | 119 | 284 | 39 | 14 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 205 | 179 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 49 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 303 | 413 | 717 | 196 | 235 | 24 | 9 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 15 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 538 | 600 | 923 | 1.523 | 385 | 495 | 7 | 13 | 555 | 262 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 19 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 467 | 579 | 867 | 1.446 | 400 | 432 | 5 | 16 | 543 | 254 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 85 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 341 | 296 | 637 | 56 | 327 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 85 | 68 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 265 | 390 | 324 | 714 | 59 | 327 | 19 | 12 | 326 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 529 | 468 | 92 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 151 | 13 | 19 | 12 | 197 | 277 | 310 | 587 | 113 | 267 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 529 | 450 | 106 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 57 | 115 | 13 | 19 | 12 | 236 | 338 | 378 | 716 | 142 | 290 | 22 | 11 | 321 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 476 | 431 | 89 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 148 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 206 | 271 | 309 | 579 | 102 | 294 | 31 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 476 | 420 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 123 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 248 | 326 | 381 | 707 | 133 | 324 | 26 | 9 | 315 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 515 | 478 | 99 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 97 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 207 | 258 | 301 | 560 | 94 | 242 | 19 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 515 | 468 | 122 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 77 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 261 | 323 | 372 | 695 | 111 | 294 | 15 | 7 | 312 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 322 | 293 | 57 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 56 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 195 | 260 | 294 | 554 | 99 | 218 | 17 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 322 | 284 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 43 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 236 | 320 | 356 | 675 | 120 | 253 | 13 | 10 | 305 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 288 | 248 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 71 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 234 | 331 | 423 | 754 | 190 | 282 | 25 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 288 | 233 | 67 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 58 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 288 | 415 | 541 | 956 | 253 | 327 | 20 | 16 | 414 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 85 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 341 | 284 | 625 | 54 | 301 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 529 | 472 | 92 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 151 | 13 | 19 | 12 | 195 | 277 | 307 | 584 | 112 | 257 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 476 | 435 | 89 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 148 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 205 | 271 | 306 | 577 | 101 | 287 | 31 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 515 | 477 | 99 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 97 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 208 | 258 | 302 | 560 | 94 | 237 | 19 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 322 | 293 | 57 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 56 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 195 | 260 | 294 | 554 | 99 | 211 | 17 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 288 | 250 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 71 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 232 | 331 | 420 | 751 | 188 | 270 | 25 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 515 | 477 | 99 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 97 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 208 | 258 | 302 | 560 | 94 | 237 | 19 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 322 | 293 | 57 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 56 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 195 | 260 | 294 | 554 | 99 | 211 | 17 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 288 | 250 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 71 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 232 | 331 | 420 | 751 | 188 | 270 | 25 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 2% | 338 | 304 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 79 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 297 | 363 | 660 | 138 | 274 | 23 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 297 | 364 | 661 | 138 | 274 | 33 | 0 | 296 | 86 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 33% | 200 | 180 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 296 | 361 | 657 | 136 | 274 | 24 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 33% | 67 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 296 | 361 | 658 | 136 | 274 | 24 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 67 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 299 | 377 | 676 | 148 | 279 | 24 | 7 | 295 | 67 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 135 | 29 | 0 | 19 | 49 | 155 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 228 | 298 | 373 | 672 | 145 | 278 | 24 | 8 | 295 | 67 | -11 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2570 | 2309 | 485 | 95 | 17 | 46 | 183 | 628 | 45 | 61 | 37 | 210 | 281 | 326 | 607 | 116 | 264 | 24 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 123 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 159 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 211 | 281 | 327 | 608 | 116 | 264 | 24 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 205 PAwOBA .381 → .307 (−74)K% 19.5% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.51% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 9.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 15.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 6.02% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .381 → .307; ISO .253 → .206; BABIP .285 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 49 PAwOBA .322 → .251 (−71)K% 32.7% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 14.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 20.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.05% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .322 → .251; ISO .128 → .096; BABIP .318 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Twins · 19 PAwOBA .695 → .543 (−152)K% 5.3% → 7.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 7.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 18.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.26% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 28.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 6.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 6.67% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .695 → .543; ISO .500 → .429; BABIP .600 → .432. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 15 PAwOBA .672 → .555 (−117)K% 6.7% → 9.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 9.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.950 | 13.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.950 | 31.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.950 | 14.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.950 | 6.91% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.0 → −5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .672 → .555; ISO .417 → .341; BABIP .600 → .495. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 322 PAwOBA .300 → .240 (−60)K% 13.4% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.35% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.63% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.33% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 17.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 2.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.90% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.33% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .300 → .240; ISO .120 → .095; BABIP .253 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 515 PAwOBA .305 → .246 (−59)K% 15.0% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.95% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.60% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.76% | ÷1.091 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×0.998 | 18.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.979 | ×0.840 | ×0.959 | ×0.998 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.26% | ÷1.126 | ×0.940 | ×0.959 | ×0.998 | 0.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷0.845 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.17% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .305 → .246; ISO .111 → .097; BABIP .294 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 476 PAwOBA .310 → .255 (−55)K% 25.8% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.57% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 20.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷0.931 | ×0.840 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 6.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.967 | ×1.012 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.231 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.99% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .310 → .255; ISO .133 → .104; BABIP .324 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 260 PAwOBA .305 → .249 (−57)K% 20.4% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.38% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.69% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.61% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.990 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×0.990 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.42% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.990 | 2.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .305 → .249; ISO .106 → .092; BABIP .283 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).