Tyler Nevin
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 217 | .278/.372/.455 | 7 | 4 | 105 | — | .273/.342/.413 | |
| 2022 | 25 | MLBBAL | 184 | .197/.304/.261 | 2 | 0 | 64 | -0.6 | ||
| 2023 | 26 | AAADET | 385 | .326/.404/.543 | 15 | 4 | 121 | — | .290/.352/.457 | |
| 2023 | 26 | MLBDET | 111 | .200/.309/.316 | 2 | 0 | 84 | -0.1 | ||
| 2024 | 27 | AAAOAK | 63 | .296/.377/.667 | 4 | 0 | 122 | — | .250/.311/.536 | |
| 2024 | 27 | MLBOakland Athle… | 278 | .204/.291/.331 | 7 | 1 | 80 | -1.2 | ||
| 2025 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 223 | 189 | 50 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 265 | 371 | 386 | 757 | 122 | 327 | 19 | 13 | 343 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 335 | 298 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 56 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 305 | 371 | 456 | 827 | 151 | 349 | 17 | 8 | 362 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 417 | 378 | 124 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 34 | 77 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 328 | 388 | 503 | 891 | 175 | 383 | 18 | 8 | 392 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 71 | 54 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 426 | 551 | 593 | 1.143 | 167 | 451 | 7 | 21 | 487 | 215 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 540 | 466 | 117 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 90 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 251 | 348 | 399 | 747 | 148 | 283 | 17 | 12 | 335 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 18 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 444 | 643 | 1.087 | 357 | 375 | 28 | 22 | 464 | 194 | +2 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +0 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 453 | 401 | 91 | 18 | 0 | 16 | 42 | 91 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 308 | 392 | 700 | 165 | 251 | 20 | 9 | 311 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 184 | 157 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 304 | 261 | 565 | 64 | 259 | 25 | 11 | 265 | 64 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 191 | 165 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 291 | 384 | 479 | 863 | 188 | 333 | 19 | 11 | 382 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 26 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 280 | 273 | 553 | 91 | 235 | 23 | 12 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 111 | 95 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 309 | 316 | 625 | 116 | 246 | 23 | 11 | 288 | 84 | -2 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 385 | 337 | 110 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 38 | 65 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 326 | 404 | 543 | 947 | 217 | 364 | 17 | 10 | 412 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 278 | 245 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 64 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 291 | 331 | 622 | 127 | 243 | 23 | 9 | 282 | 80 | -7 | +0 | -6 | -6 | +6 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 63 | 54 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 377 | 667 | 1.044 | 370 | 293 | 17 | 10 | 430 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 591 | 511 | 104 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 140 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 303 | 315 | 618 | 112 | 251 | 24 | 10 | 283 | 78 | -15 | -0 | -14 | -8 | +13 | -2.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 223 | 200 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 195 | 271 | 275 | 546 | 80 | 266 | 27 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 335 | 306 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 74 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 258 | 310 | 373 | 683 | 114 | 307 | 22 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 417 | 389 | 104 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 110 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 267 | 313 | 386 | 699 | 118 | 345 | 26 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 540 | 486 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 109 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 210 | 282 | 313 | 595 | 103 | 247 | 20 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 18 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 444 | 643 | 1.087 | 357 | 375 | 28 | 22 | 454 | 194 | +2 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +0 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 453 | 414 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 29 | 111 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 259 | 321 | 580 | 123 | 233 | 25 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 184 | 157 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 304 | 261 | 565 | 64 | 259 | 25 | 11 | 263 | 64 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 191 | 172 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 273 | 342 | 413 | 755 | 140 | 331 | 22 | 7 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 111 | 95 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 309 | 316 | 625 | 116 | 246 | 23 | 11 | 292 | 84 | -2 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 385 | 348 | 101 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 79 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 290 | 352 | 457 | 809 | 167 | 332 | 21 | 7 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 278 | 245 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 64 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 295 | 347 | 641 | 139 | 243 | 23 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -7 | +0 | -6 | -6 | +6 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 63 | 56 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 311 | 536 | 847 | 286 | 243 | 21 | 6 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 223 | 200 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 195 | 271 | 275 | 546 | 80 | 270 | 27 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 223 | 189 | 50 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 265 | 371 | 386 | 757 | 122 | 327 | 19 | 13 | 343 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 335 | 306 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 74 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 258 | 310 | 373 | 683 | 114 | 318 | 22 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 335 | 298 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 56 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 305 | 371 | 456 | 827 | 151 | 349 | 17 | 8 | 362 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 454 | 121 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 129 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 267 | 312 | 381 | 693 | 115 | 350 | 26 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 488 | 432 | 147 | 28 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 82 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 340 | 411 | 514 | 925 | 174 | 393 | 17 | 10 | 406 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 540 | 486 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 109 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 210 | 282 | 313 | 595 | 103 | 250 | 20 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 540 | 466 | 117 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 90 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 251 | 348 | 399 | 747 | 148 | 283 | 17 | 12 | 335 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 428 | 85 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 116 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 264 | 322 | 586 | 124 | 239 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 471 | 415 | 95 | 20 | 0 | 17 | 46 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 313 | 400 | 713 | 171 | 254 | 20 | 10 | 317 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 401 | 351 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 95 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 236 | 323 | 345 | 668 | 108 | 296 | 24 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 401 | 344 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 88 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 241 | 341 | 366 | 707 | 125 | 294 | 22 | 11 | 320 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 443 | 120 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 39 | 104 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 342 | 427 | 769 | 156 | 321 | 21 | 8 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 432 | 129 | 25 | 4 | 17 | 50 | 90 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 299 | 383 | 493 | 876 | 194 | 339 | 18 | 10 | 384 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 341 | 301 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 77 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 295 | 375 | 670 | 163 | 243 | 23 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -6 | -6 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 341 | 299 | 66 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 307 | 391 | 698 | 171 | 252 | 22 | 9 | 309 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -6 | -6 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 223 | 200 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 195 | 271 | 275 | 546 | 80 | 266 | 27 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 335 | 309 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 74 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 256 | 310 | 369 | 679 | 113 | 307 | 22 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 455 | 121 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 129 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 266 | 312 | 380 | 692 | 114 | 345 | 26 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 540 | 486 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 109 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 210 | 282 | 313 | 595 | 103 | 247 | 20 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 430 | 85 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 116 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 264 | 321 | 585 | 123 | 238 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 401 | 353 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 95 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 235 | 323 | 343 | 666 | 108 | 296 | 24 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 445 | 120 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 39 | 104 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 270 | 342 | 425 | 767 | 155 | 313 | 21 | 8 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 341 | 303 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 77 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 295 | 373 | 668 | 162 | 243 | 23 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 341 | 303 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 77 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 295 | 373 | 668 | 162 | 243 | 23 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 591 | 511 | 104 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 140 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 303 | 315 | 618 | 112 | 251 | 24 | 10 | 283 | 82 | -15 | -0 | -14 | -8 | +13 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 562 | 114 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 67 | 154 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 302 | 313 | 615 | 110 | 251 | 24 | 10 | 283 | 82 | -17 | -0 | -15 | -9 | +14 | -2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3295 | 2969 | 693 | 129 | 13 | 69 | 247 | 764 | 42 | 34 | 21 | 233 | 301 | 355 | 657 | 122 | 287 | 23 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -15 | -0 | -14 | -8 | +13 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 151 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 234 | 302 | 358 | 660 | 125 | 287 | 23 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -17 | -0 | -15 | -9 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 63 PAwOBA .431 → .349 (−83)K% 17.5% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.46% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.63% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 11.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.95% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 10.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.30% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.52% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .431 → .349; ISO .370 → .283; BABIP .293 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 385 PAwOBA .405 → .347 (−58)K% 16.9% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.88% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.87% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.74% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 25.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.09% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .405 → .347; ISO .217 → .170; BABIP .364 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 191 PAwOBA .374 → .333 (−42)K% 18.8% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.85% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.99% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.09% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.81% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×1.033 | 25.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×1.033 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.05% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .374 → .333; ISO .188 → .150; BABIP .333 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 453 PAwOBA .306 → .255 (−51)K% 20.1% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.27% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.39% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.048 | 17.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.81% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.048 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.16% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.75% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .306 → .255; ISO .165 → .125; BABIP .251 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAHartford Yard Goats · 540 PAwOBA .329 → .266 (−63)K% 16.7% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.04% | ÷1.042 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.21% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 18.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷1.178 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 5.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.46% | ÷1.190 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 2.36% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 106, 2B 136, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .266; ISO .148 → .108; BABIP .283 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 417 PAwOBA .384 → .299 (−84)K% 18.5% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.47% | ÷0.938 | ×1.340 | — | — | 26.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.15% | ÷1.073 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.24% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 26.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.31% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.130 | ×0.760 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.531 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 2.67% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 206, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 126, K 88, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .384 → .299; ISO .175 → .115; BABIP .383 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAsheville Tourists · 335 PAwOBA .359 → .294 (−65)K% 16.7% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.72% | ÷1.018 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷0.987 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 5.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.03% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 23.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.44% | ÷1.085 | ×0.820 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.243 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 1.97% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 110, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .359 → .294; ISO .151 → .116; BABIP .349 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 223 PAwOBA .338 → .248 (−89)K% 18.8% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×1.022 | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 7.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×1.022 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.022 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .338 → .248; ISO .122 → .089; BABIP .327 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .