Avery Owusu-Asiedu
CF Hillsboro Hops| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | APHI | 357 | .192/.288/.327 | 9 | 17 | 13 | — | .124/.203/.202 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/APHI | 425 | .258/.372/.385 | 7 | 33 | 61 | — | .204/.285/.300 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+ARI | 500 | .236/.333/.479 | 27 | 28 | 74 | — | .191/.266/.385 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBARI | 1 | .194/.267/.347 | 0 | 0 | 70 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBARI | 79 | .197/.271/.352 | 2 | 3 | 72 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBARI | 135 | .200/.274/.355 | 4 | 5 | 74 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 55 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 333 | 348 | 681 | 130 | 250 | 18 | 13 | 309 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 357 | 312 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 129 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 192 | 288 | 327 | 615 | 135 | 290 | 36 | 10 | 280 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 207 | 174 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 50 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 247 | 355 | 368 | 722 | 121 | 328 | 24 | 14 | 324 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 218 | 179 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 52 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 268 | 388 | 402 | 790 | 134 | 344 | 24 | 14 | 355 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 142 | 116 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 36 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 328 | 435 | 776 | 1.211 | 448 | 343 | 25 | 13 | 493 | 171 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 358 | 312 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 93 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 202 | 293 | 369 | 661 | 167 | 238 | 26 | 11 | 294 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 55 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 163 | 241 | 265 | 506 | 102 | 189 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 357 | 322 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 178 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 124 | 203 | 202 | 405 | 78 | 242 | 50 | 8 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 207 | 186 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 65 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 188 | 256 | 274 | 530 | 86 | 268 | 31 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 218 | 188 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 66 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 218 | 313 | 324 | 638 | 106 | 293 | 30 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 142 | 121 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 281 | 370 | 653 | 1.022 | 372 | 304 | 31 | 9 | 421 | 171 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 358 | 323 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 126 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 155 | 224 | 279 | 503 | 124 | 199 | 35 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 55 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 163 | 241 | 265 | 506 | 102 | 206 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | FCL Phillies | — | 55 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 333 | 348 | 681 | 130 | 250 | 18 | 13 | 309 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 357 | 322 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 178 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 124 | 203 | 202 | 405 | 78 | 248 | 50 | 8 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 357 | 312 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 129 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 192 | 288 | 327 | 615 | 135 | 290 | 36 | 10 | 280 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 374 | 76 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 132 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 203 | 285 | 291 | 577 | 88 | 292 | 31 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 353 | 91 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 58 | 102 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 258 | 372 | 385 | 757 | 127 | 336 | 24 | 14 | 340 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 444 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 22 | 40 | 170 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 189 | 265 | 381 | 646 | 191 | 238 | 34 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 500 | 428 | 101 | 17 | 3 | 27 | 56 | 129 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 236 | 333 | 479 | 812 | 243 | 264 | 26 | 11 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 55 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 241 | 260 | 501 | 100 | 189 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 357 | 322 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 178 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 124 | 203 | 202 | 405 | 78 | 242 | 50 | 8 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 379 | 76 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 132 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 201 | 285 | 288 | 573 | 87 | 281 | 31 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 450 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 22 | 40 | 170 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 187 | 265 | 376 | 641 | 189 | 229 | 34 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 357 | 322 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 178 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 124 | 203 | 202 | 405 | 78 | 242 | 50 | 8 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 379 | 76 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 132 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 201 | 285 | 288 | 573 | 87 | 281 | 31 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 450 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 22 | 40 | 170 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 187 | 265 | 376 | 641 | 189 | 229 | 34 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | ARI | 0% | 380 | 343 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 122 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 190 | 263 | 341 | 605 | 152 | 250 | 32 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -14 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | ARI | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 267 | 347 | 614 | 153 | 259 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 70 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 30% | 260 | 234 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 82 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 193 | 267 | 347 | 614 | 154 | 252 | 32 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | ARI | 44% | 305 | 274 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 95 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 196 | 270 | 350 | 620 | 154 | 254 | 31 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 49% | 321 | 289 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 99 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 197 | 272 | 350 | 622 | 153 | 256 | 31 | 8 | 278 | 75 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 52% | 328 | 295 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 101 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 272 | 349 | 621 | 151 | 257 | 31 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 56% | 321 | 289 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 98 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 198 | 272 | 346 | 618 | 148 | 258 | 31 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 59% | 314 | 283 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 97 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 269 | 339 | 607 | 143 | 256 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -11 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 30% | 79 | 72 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 271 | 352 | 623 | 155 | 262 | 32 | 8 | 279 | 72 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | ARI | 44% | 135 | 122 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 274 | 355 | 629 | 155 | 264 | 31 | 8 | 281 | 74 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 49% | 157 | 141 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 202 | 276 | 356 | 632 | 154 | 265 | 31 | 8 | 282 | 75 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 52% | 169 | 151 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 202 | 276 | 355 | 631 | 152 | 266 | 31 | 8 | 282 | 74 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 56% | 179 | 160 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 203 | 276 | 352 | 628 | 149 | 267 | 31 | 8 | 281 | 74 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 59% | 184 | 165 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 272 | 345 | 617 | 145 | 265 | 31 | 8 | 277 | 71 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 903 | 811 | 163 | 31 | 6 | 26 | 74 | 279 | 10 | 27 | 6 | 201 | 276 | 350 | 626 | 149 | 268 | 31 | 8 | 280 | 65 | -29 | +3 | -2 | +3 | +20 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 117 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 201 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 200 | 275 | 349 | 624 | 149 | 266 | 31 | 8 | 280 | 65 | -21 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3396 | 3042 | 571 | 98 | 18 | 97 | 275 | 1135 | 38 | 143 | 25 | 188 | 263 | 327 | 591 | 140 | 258 | 33 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -66 | +8 | -4 | +7 | +45 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 110 | 19 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 217 | 7 | 27 | 5 | 189 | 265 | 330 | 595 | 141 | 259 | 33 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -21 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 358 PAwOBA .289 → .220 (−69)K% 26.0% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.98% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 7.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 14.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 4.92% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .289 → .220; ISO .167 → .127; BABIP .238 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 142 PAwOBA .493 → .421 (−72)K% 25.4% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.82% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 2.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 17.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 14.38% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .493 → .421; ISO .448 → .382; BABIP .343 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AClearwater Threshers · 218 PAwOBA .351 → .279 (−72)K% 23.9% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.85% | ÷1.065 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.76% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.56% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | — | 23.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | — | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | — | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.91% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .351 → .279; ISO .134 → .104; BABIP .344 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 207 PAwOBA .321 → .237 (−84)K% 24.2% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.15% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.39% | ÷0.966 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.26% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.37% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .321 → .237; ISO .121 → .091; BABIP .328 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 357 PAwOBA .275 → .187 (−88)K% 36.1% → 50.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.13% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.36% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.77% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 17.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.01% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.58% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .275 → .187; ISO .135 → .083; BABIP .290 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Phillies · 55 PAwOBA .307 → .216 (−91)K% 18.2% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.73% | ÷1.005 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 13.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.028 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.10% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .307 → .216; ISO .130 → .093; BABIP .250 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).