Rafael Morel — OGILVIE

Rafael MorelSS South Bend Cubs

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†35

AVG/OBP/SLG.157 / .241 / .221

PA26

HR0

K%37

BB%9

ISO65

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	230	65	16	5	4	26	38	9	23	9	283	377	448	825	165	319	14	10	365	133	+11	+1	—	—	+6	1.8
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	139	118	24	4	1	3	14	38	3	6	1	203	304	331	634	127	263	27	10	284	78	-4	+1	—	—	+3	0.0
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	145	126	35	7	2	0	13	41	4	4	2	278	364	365	729	87	402	28	9	329	109	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	334	88	10	0	7	50	94	6	16	9	263	369	356	726	93	346	24	13	335	113	+6	-0	—	—	+8	1.4
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	328	287	65	7	1	8	29	93	9	6	5	226	317	341	658	115	305	28	9	300	89	-4	-1	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	37	33	4	1	0	0	4	15	0	1	0	121	216	152	368	30	222	41	11	184	10	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	362	302	52	13	0	3	50	112	6	23	2	172	302	245	547	73	257	31	14	262	63	-16	+4	—	—	+8	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	240	48	11	3	3	16	55	9	23	9	200	275	308	584	108	237	21	6	257	60	-13	+1	—	—	+6	-0.6
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	139	124	17	3	1	2	8	55	3	6	1	137	207	226	433	89	198	40	6	190	15	-14	+1	—	—	+3	-1.0
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	145	132	25	5	1	0	7	60	4	4	2	189	252	242	494	53	318	41	5	217	33	-12	+0	—	—	+3	-0.9
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	352	73	8	0	6	32	132	6	16	9	207	285	281	566	74	312	34	8	258	61	-18	-0	—	—	+8	-1.0
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	51	5	1	7	20	125	9	6	5	172	246	267	513	95	258	38	6	224	38	-24	-1	—	—	+7	-1.8
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	37	34	4	1	0	0	3	18	0	1	0	118	189	147	336	29	208	49	8	138	-20	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	362	318	41	10	0	2	34	144	6	23	2	129	226	179	406	50	213	40	9	192	16	-36	+4	—	—	+8	-2.5
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	240	48	11	3	3	16	55	9	23	9	200	275	308	584	108	243	21	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	230	65	16	5	4	26	38	9	23	9	283	377	448	825	165	319	14	10	365	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	139	124	17	3	1	2	8	55	3	6	1	137	207	226	433	89	214	40	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	139	118	24	4	1	3	14	38	3	6	1	203	304	331	634	127	263	27	10	284	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	145	132	25	5	1	0	7	60	4	4	2	189	252	242	494	53	338	41	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	145	126	35	7	2	0	13	41	4	4	2	278	364	365	729	87	402	28	9	329	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	352	73	8	0	6	32	132	6	16	9	207	285	281	566	74	312	34	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	334	88	10	0	7	50	94	6	16	9	263	369	356	726	93	346	24	13	335	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	51	5	1	7	20	125	9	6	5	172	246	267	513	95	267	38	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	328	287	65	7	1	8	29	93	9	6	5	226	317	341	658	115	305	28	9	300	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	399	352	43	10	0	2	37	162	6	24	2	122	218	168	385	45	214	41	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	399	335	56	14	0	3	54	127	6	24	2	167	294	236	529	69	254	32	14	255	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	241	48	11	3	3	16	55	9	23	9	199	275	307	583	108	237	21	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	139	127	17	3	1	2	8	55	3	6	1	134	207	220	428	87	198	40	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	145	133	25	5	1	0	7	60	4	4	2	188	252	241	492	53	318	41	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	350	73	8	0	6	32	132	6	16	9	209	285	283	567	74	312	34	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	51	5	1	7	20	125	9	6	5	172	246	267	513	95	258	38	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	399	353	43	10	0	2	37	162	6	24	2	122	218	167	385	45	213	41	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	350	73	8	0	6	32	132	6	16	9	209	285	283	567	74	312	34	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	51	5	1	7	20	125	9	6	5	172	246	267	513	95	258	38	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	399	353	43	10	0	2	37	162	6	24	2	122	218	167	385	45	213	41	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	24	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	26	24	4	1	0	0	2	10	0	1	0	167	231	208	439	42	253	38	8	220	35	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	30%	368	328	56	11	1	5	32	129	5	11	2	171	255	256	511	85	258	35	9	236	46	-24	+1	+0	+4	+8	-1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	44%	406	362	64	12	1	7	36	139	5	12	2	177	261	273	534	97	261	34	9	246	52	-23	+2	+0	+4	+9	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	49%	419	374	67	13	1	7	37	141	5	13	2	179	262	275	537	96	263	34	9	250	55	-22	+2	+0	+4	+9	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	52%	424	377	68	13	1	7	38	142	6	12	2	180	266	276	542	95	263	33	9	251	56	-22	+2	-1	+5	+9	-0.8
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	30%	112	100	16	3	0	1	10	39	1	3	1	160	243	220	463	60	259	35	9	226	46	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	44%	180	160	29	6	0	3	16	61	2	5	1	181	264	275	539	94	262	34	9	236	52	-10	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	49%	205	182	33	6	1	3	18	69	3	6	1	181	266	275	541	93	264	34	9	240	55	-11	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	52%	218	193	36	7	1	4	20	73	3	6	1	187	273	295	568	109	265	33	9	241	56	-11	+1	-0	+2	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	715	635	114	22	2	11	64	242	9	20	4	180	264	272	537	93	267	34	9	237	45	-40	+2	-0	+8	+15	-1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	104	20	2	10	58	220	8	18	4	180	264	274	538	94	268	34	9	237	45	-36	+2	-0	+7	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3313	2961	516	92	10	46	265	1150	58	128	36	174	255	259	514	84	263	35	8	235	45	-93	+7	-1	+18	+36	-3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	101	18	2	9	52	226	11	25	7	174	254	258	512	84	263	35	8	235	45	-37	+3	-0	+7	+14	-1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.1	717	12	21	178	260	273	+8	+6	-1.0	-0.5
/162	664	11	20	+7.1	+5.6	-0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Morel (OGILVIE)	24	20	25	60	55	157/241/221	64	253	3	10	37%	9%	35	-1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	176/235/239	63	249	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	212/281/292	80	276	8	14	24%	8%	65	-1.2	205/280/278	73	264	8	16	24%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	41	35→30	53→50	40	195/250/249	55	288	2	14	32%	6%	42	-2.9	220/280/292	72	318	3	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	229/294/291	62	333	2	11	29%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Trey Martin 2017 · AA	24	38→39	36→40	53→55	35	184/222/243	59	275	4	19	34%	4%	30	-3.8	198/240/284	86	303	7	14	35%	5%	47	-2.6	194/236/283	90	298	8	14	36%	4%	44	-1.7
✕Ashton Creal 2023 · A	24	38	41→40	54→55	38	181/259/279	98	296	8	22	39%	7%	55	-2.0	191/267/280	89	341	8	15	43%	7%	57	-1.8	129/224/173	43	295	6	12	53%	7%	16	-1.0
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/251/280	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	188/266/297	109	283	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/288	115	272	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Gift Ngoepe 2014 · AA	24	40→42	39→45	51→50	40	189/258/274	85	306	6	17	38%	8%	52	-2.2	205/261/305	100	313	8	11	34%	6%	60	-1.6	163/241/259	96	289	8	5	43%	9%	41	-1.2
✕Jayson Hernandez 2013 · AA	24	39	39→30	49→30	37	192/235/277	84	280	6	8	33%	5%	43	-2.8	215/262/289	74	286	5	5	25%	4%	56	-1.9	229/274/261	32	293	2	0	21%	3%	51	-0.9
✕Jordyn Adams 2023 · AA	23	40→41	38→45	58→60	36	191/246/266	75	303	5	24	37%	6%	45	-2.7	199/258/305	106	305	10	29	36%	7%	59	-1.7	188/249/290	102	288	11	26	37%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Cody Bohanek 2019 · AAA	24	39→36	38→40	47→50	41	188/265/260	72	272	7	10	31%	6%	53	-2.1	177/270/265	88	291	8	12	39%	8%	56	-1.9	151/256/238	88	264	7	16	41%	8%	45	-1.6
✕Jawuan Harris 2021 · A	24	37→28	40	54→55	41	172/263/265	93	309	7	18	42%	9%	53	-2.1	179/260/262	83	375	6	20	48%	9%	51	-2.3	94/200/138	45	245	2	38	56%	10%	0	-1.6
✕Alfredo Reyes 2017 · A	23	37	36→30	57→55	35	181/222/241	60	279	4	20	36%	5%	29	-3.8	200/252/266	66	327	4	24	37%	6%	47	-2.5	198/257/257	59	329	4	28	38%	7%	44	-1.4
✕Casio Grider 2012 · A	24	41→40	38→40	57→55	37	195/253/281	85	292	4	20	33%	5%	51	-2.2	200/258/285	85	299	5	22	33%	5%	54	-2.0	191/248/272	81	291	5	27	34%	5%	44	-1.2
✕Ashford Fulmer 2017 · A	24	39	36→40	51→50	37	180/249/244	64	298	3	13	38%	6%	42	-2.9	204/267/282	78	290	4	12	29%	7%	57	-1.8	201/266/271	70	279	2	15	26%	6%	51	-1.1
✕Thomas Jones 2022 · A	24	36→35	41→40	52→50	37	176/256/269	93	287	8	17	39%	7%	51	-2.2	180/261/291	111	315	11	13	43%	7%	58	-1.7	123/217/245	122	228	14	10	49%	8%	31	-1.4
✕Logan Warmoth 2021 · AA	25	43→40	37→40	53→55	41	199/268/276	76	310	4	13	34%	7%	56	-1.9	197/276/296	99	311	9	20	36%	8%	65	-1.2	190/273/288	98	292	9	24	35%	8%	59	-1.1
✕Stephen Wrenn 2019 · AA	24	42→43	40→45	56→60	39	205/256/296	91	290	7	24	31%	6%	55	-1.9	206/266/314	108	302	9	24	33%	6%	64	-1.3	197/262/311	114	295	9	27	34%	6%	60	-1.0
✕Kevin Vicuña 2022 · AAA	24	43→41	36→40	50	38	206/258/273	67	281	4	15	27%	4%	51	-2.2	223/274/311	88	291	5	12	24%	5%	66	-1.1	229/278/316	87	296	4	10	23%	4%	65	-0.5
✕Oliver Marmol 2010 · A	24	37	37→40	51→55	38	177/252/249	72	262	4	15	32%	5%	45	-2.7	200/280/299	99	307	7	12	35%	7%	68	-1.0	167/267/280	114	275	8	12	38%	7%	58	-0.4
✕Rand Smith 2011 · A	24	41→39	37→30	53→50	45	197/260/265	67	265	5	15	26%	7%	50	-2.3	210/272/283	73	296	5	10	28%	8%	59	-1.7	198/269/240	42	290	1	4	30%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps