Rafael Morel — OGILVIE

Rafael MorelSS South Bend Cubs

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs A+ BB +5%HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

wRC+†38

AVG/OBP/SLG.172 / .253 / .247

PA320

HR4

SB9

K%36

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

25→25

SPD

60→60

EYE

49↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.2peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-1.0M		$-21M	-$20M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$20M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	268	240	48	11	3	3	16	55	9	23	9	.200	.275	.308	.584	.108	.243	21	6	.257	55	-14	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.2
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	139	125	17	3	1	2	7	56	3	6	1	.136	.200	.224	.424	.088	.214	40	5	.188	2	-15	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.9
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	145	132	25	5	1	0	7	61	4	4	2	.189	.252	.242	.494	.053	.342	42	5	.214	22	-13	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.7
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	391	351	73	8	0	6	33	132	6	16	9	.208	.287	.282	.569	.074	.313	34	8	.258	56	-20	-0	+0	+4	+11	-0.5
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	328	296	52	5	1	6	20	118	9	6	5	.176	.249	.260	.509	.084	.266	36	6	.229	33	-25	-1	+0	+4	+9	-1.3
2025	23	A+	2 teams	399	353	46	11	0	2	36	152	6	24	2	.130	.223	.178	.401	.048	.217	38	9	.192	5	-43	+4	+0	+4	+11	-2.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	CHC	320	286	50	9	1	4	27	116	4	9	2	.175	.256	.255	.511	.080	.271	36	8	.235	38	-22	+1	+0	+3	+9	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB 10%	CHC	368	328	60	11	1	6	32	128	5	10	2	.183	.266	.277	.543	.095	.275	35	9	.250	49	-21	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.6
2028	26	MLB 25%	CHC	406	362	68	13	1	7	36	137	5	11	2	.188	.270	.287	.558	.099	.278	34	9	.258	56	-20	+1	+0	+4	+12	-0.3
2029	27	MLB 43%	CHC	419	372	71	13	1	8	38	140	6	11	2	.191	.276	.296	.572	.105	.279	33	9	.262	59	-20	+1	+0	+4	+12	-0.2
2030	28	MLB 52%	CHC	424	377	73	14	1	8	38	141	6	11	2	.194	.278	.300	.578	.106	.279	33	9	.262	59	-20	+1	-1	+5	+12	-0.3
2031	29	MLB 63%	CHC	420	374	70	13	1	7	38	141	5	10	1	.187	.271	.283	.554	.096	.278	34	9	.260	57	-20	+2	-1	+4	+12	-0.4
2032	30	MLB 73%	CHC	414	368	69	13	1	7	38	140	5	9	1	.188	.273	.285	.558	.098	.276	34	9	.257	55	-21	+1	-2	+4	+12	-0.6
2033	31	MLB 90%	CHC	401	357	66	12	1	7	36	138	5	7	0	.185	.269	.283	.552	.098	.274	34	9	.253	52	-22	+1	-3	+4	+11	-0.8
2034	32	MLB	CHC	384	341	63	12	1	6	35	134	5	6	0	.185	.270	.279	.549	.094	.273	35	9	.249	48	-22	+1	-4	+4	+11	-1.0
2035	33	MLB	CHC	355	316	56	10	1	5	32	126	4	4	0	.177	.261	.263	.524	.085	.271	35	9	.243	44	-22	+1	-4	+4	+10	-1.2
2036	34	MLB	CHC	311	276	48	9	1	4	28	113	4	3	0	.174	.260	.257	.517	.083	.269	36	9	.237	40	-21	+1	-5	+3	+9	-1.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5892	5254	955	172	17	88	497	2028	91	170	40	.182	.264	.271	.535	.089	.273	34	8	.245	46	-361	+18	-20	+63	+167	-13.5
/ 162G	—			650	580	106	19	2	10	55	224	10	19	4	.183	.266	.274	.540	.091	.274	34	8	.245	46	-40	+2	-2	+7	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	268	230	65	16	5	4	26	38	9	23	9	.283	.377	.448	.825	.165	.319	14	10	.365	138	+11	+1	—	—	+8	2.0
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	139	118	24	4	1	3	14	38	3	6	1	.203	.304	.331	.634	.127	.263	27	10	.284	75	-4	+1	—	—	+4	0.1
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	145	126	35	7	2	0	13	41	4	4	2	.278	.364	.365	.729	.087	.402	28	9	.329	110	+2	+0	—	—	+4	0.6
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	391	334	88	10	0	7	50	94	6	16	9	.263	.369	.356	.726	.093	.346	24	13	.335	114	+6	-0	—	—	+11	1.7
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	328	287	65	7	1	8	29	93	9	6	5	.226	.317	.341	.658	.115	.305	28	9	.300	88	-4	-1	—	—	+9	0.4
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	37	33	4	1	0	0	4	15	0	1	0	.121	.216	.152	.368	.030	.222	41	11	.184	-1	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	362	302	52	13	0	3	50	112	6	23	2	.172	.302	.245	.547	.073	.257	31	14	.262	59	-17	+4	—	—	+10	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Morel (OGILVIE)	24	20	25	60	55	.172/.253/.247	.076	.271	4	9	36%	8%	38	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	42	35→30	53→50	41	.199/.256/.254	.055	.291	2	14	31%	6%	38	-2.6	.218/.278/.286	.068	.315	3	12	29%	7%	56	-1.3	.227/.292/.289	.061	.331	2	11	29%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	.176/.234/.238	.062	.249	4	15	30%	6%	26	-3.4	.211/.280/.295	.084	.276	8	14	25%	8%	60	-1.0	.207/.282/.288	.080	.266	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2022 · AAA	24	39→43	41→40	52→50	47	.189/.268/.284	.095	.274	9	15	32%	10%	53	-1.5	.204/.283/.304	.100	.299	9	14	32%	10%	65	-0.7	.195/.282/.288	.093	.289	8	15	32%	10%	56	-0.7
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	37	39→40	49→50	44	.183/.260/.264	.081	.271	8	14	33%	9%	45	-2.1	.205/.286/.296	.091	.292	7	13	29%	9%	63	-0.8	.211/.301/.305	.094	.293	5	13	27%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Jawuan Harris 2021 · A	24	37→29	40	54→55	42	.174/.266/.267	.093	.296	7	18	40%	9%	49	-1.8	.176/.259/.258	.082	.367	6	21	48%	9%	43	-2.2	.094/.199/.138	.045	.243	2	38	56%	10%	-13	-1.7
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→29	42→45	48→50	42	.191/.254/.286	.095	.257	11	14	30%	7%	47	-1.9	.192/.267/.310	.118	.259	14	15	30%	8%	59	-1.1	.186/.266/.299	.113	.246	14	14	29%	9%	54	-0.9
✕Gift Ngoepe 2014 · AA	24	41→42	39→45	51→50	41	.192/.261/.279	.086	.307	6	16	37%	8%	48	-1.9	.205/.263/.307	.102	.318	8	11	36%	7%	56	-1.3	.199/.256/.303	.104	.307	8	5	36%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	38	42→50	52→45	40	.189/.250/.291	.102	.286	10	11	36%	7%	46	-2.0	.204/.266/.313	.109	.307	11	9	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.164/.224/.258	.094	.235	10	0	33%	7%	25	-0.6
✕Jordyn Adams 2023 · AA	23	40→41	38→45	57→60	36	.188/.243/.264	.076	.303	6	23	38%	6%	36	-2.7	.199/.258/.305	.106	.306	10	30	36%	7%	53	-1.5	.194/.256/.310	.116	.294	12	32	36%	7%	52	-1.3
✕Ashton Creal 2023 · A	24	39	41→40	54→55	39	.186/.263/.286	.100	.298	8	21	38%	7%	52	-1.6	.189/.265/.279	.090	.337	8	16	43%	7%	51	-1.7	.129/.221/.176	.047	.295	7	12	53%	7%	4	-1.1
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2019 · AA	24	42→46	38→45	54→60	39	.197/.273/.275	.078	.297	5	21	33%	6%	53	-1.5	.187/.267/.270	.083	.297	6	23	36%	7%	50	-1.8	.195/.280/.308	.112	.279	12	28	32%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Logan Warmoth 2021 · AA	25	43→39	37→45	53→55	41	.199/.268/.274	.074	.312	3	13	35%	7%	50	-1.8	.197/.276/.301	.104	.314	9	19	37%	8%	61	-1.0	.188/.271/.293	.105	.291	11	24	36%	8%	55	-0.9
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	41	40→45	53→55	40	.196/.256/.291	.095	.278	6	15	30%	6%	50	-1.8	.190/.266/.302	.112	.286	11	16	35%	8%	57	-1.2	.176/.260/.302	.126	.275	14	16	39%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Stephen Wrenn 2019 · AA	24	41→43	40→45	56→60	39	.202/.253/.294	.093	.287	8	23	32%	6%	48	-1.9	.200/.260/.309	.109	.299	9	24	34%	6%	56	-1.3	.188/.254/.304	.116	.289	10	27	36%	6%	50	-1.1
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2019 · AA	24	40→42	38→50	54→55	34	.196/.235/.274	.078	.299	6	22	36%	4%	34	-2.8	.204/.249/.294	.090	.309	8	25	35%	5%	46	-2.0	.197/.239/.349	.152	.266	18	22	33%	4%	55	-0.8
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	.177/.239/.273	.095	.270	8	7	36%	7%	37	-2.6	.200/.266/.312	.112	.290	11	7	33%	7%	59	-1.1	.191/.265/.302	.110	.270	10	5	31%	8%	52	-0.8
✕Trey Martin 2017 · AA	24	38→39	36→40	53→55	35	.186/.223/.247	.061	.277	4	19	34%	4%	22	-3.7	.195/.236/.283	.088	.303	8	14	36%	5%	38	-2.6	.190/.232/.287	.097	.298	9	14	38%	4%	36	-1.7
✕Ryan Metzler 2018 · AA	25	38	37→40	50	35	.177/.235/.246	.069	.305	4	12	41%	6%	28	-3.2	.198/.252/.287	.089	.299	8	13	34%	6%	46	-2.0	.187/.242/.269	.082	.278	9	15	34%	6%	35	-1.1
✕J.T. Arruda 2022 · A	24	39→42	38→40	53→55	43	.189/.254/.273	.084	.278	5	13	32%	8%	43	-2.2	.202/.277/.294	.092	.298	7	19	31%	9%	59	-1.1	.200/.277/.286	.086	.288	6	21	30%	9%	55	-0.9
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	41	35→30	52→55	42	.188/.277/.248	.060	.302	3	12	35%	8%	49	-1.8	.222/.280/.282	.060	.288	3	17	22%	6%	56	-1.3	.244/.292/.297	.053	.299	2	23	18%	5%	62	-0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)