Rafael Morel
SS South Bend Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ACHC | 391 | .263/.369/.356 | 7 | 16 | 61 | — | .207/.292/.273 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+CHC | 328 | .226/.317/.341 | 8 | 6 | 42 | — | .179/.252/.274 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/A+CHC | 399 | .167/.294/.236 | 3 | 24 | 15 | — | .131/.225/.179 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBCHC | 1 | .169/.251/.239 | 0 | 0 | 41 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBCHC | 73 | .174/.256/.254 | 1 | 2 | 46 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBCHC | 113 | .177/.258/.260 | 1 | 3 | 48 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 268 | 230 | 65 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 38 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 283 | 377 | 448 | 825 | 165 | 319 | 14 | 10 | 365 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 139 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 304 | 331 | 634 | 127 | 263 | 27 | 10 | 284 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 145 | 126 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 278 | 364 | 365 | 729 | 87 | 402 | 28 | 9 | 329 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 391 | 334 | 88 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 50 | 94 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 263 | 369 | 356 | 726 | 93 | 346 | 24 | 13 | 335 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 328 | 287 | 65 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 93 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 226 | 317 | 341 | 658 | 115 | 305 | 28 | 9 | 300 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 37 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 216 | 152 | 368 | 30 | 222 | 41 | 11 | 184 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 362 | 302 | 52 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 50 | 112 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 172 | 302 | 245 | 547 | 73 | 257 | 31 | 14 | 262 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 268 | 238 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 46 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 172 | 257 | 261 | 517 | 88 | 197 | 17 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 139 | 124 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 137 | 207 | 226 | 433 | 89 | 197 | 40 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 145 | 132 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 174 | 238 | 220 | 457 | 45 | 313 | 41 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 391 | 348 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 207 | 292 | 273 | 565 | 66 | 305 | 32 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 328 | 296 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 117 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 179 | 252 | 274 | 526 | 95 | 259 | 36 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 37 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 189 | 147 | 336 | 29 | 218 | 49 | 8 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 362 | 318 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 135 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 132 | 229 | 182 | 411 | 50 | 211 | 37 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 268 | 238 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 46 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 172 | 257 | 261 | 517 | 88 | 202 | 17 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 268 | 230 | 65 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 38 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 283 | 377 | 448 | 825 | 165 | 319 | 14 | 10 | 365 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 139 | 124 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 137 | 207 | 226 | 433 | 89 | 214 | 40 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 139 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 304 | 331 | 634 | 127 | 263 | 27 | 10 | 284 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 145 | 132 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 174 | 238 | 220 | 457 | 45 | 311 | 41 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 145 | 126 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 278 | 364 | 365 | 729 | 87 | 402 | 28 | 9 | 329 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 391 | 348 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 207 | 292 | 273 | 565 | 66 | 307 | 32 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 391 | 334 | 88 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 50 | 94 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 263 | 369 | 356 | 726 | 93 | 346 | 24 | 13 | 335 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 328 | 296 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 117 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 179 | 252 | 274 | 526 | 95 | 266 | 36 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 328 | 287 | 65 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 93 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 226 | 317 | 341 | 658 | 115 | 305 | 28 | 9 | 300 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 399 | 352 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 154 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 131 | 225 | 179 | 404 | 48 | 220 | 39 | 9 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 399 | 335 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 54 | 127 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 167 | 294 | 236 | 529 | 69 | 254 | 32 | 14 | 255 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 268 | 239 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 46 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 172 | 257 | 259 | 516 | 88 | 197 | 17 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 139 | 127 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 134 | 207 | 220 | 428 | 87 | 197 | 40 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 145 | 133 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 173 | 238 | 218 | 456 | 45 | 313 | 41 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 391 | 346 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 208 | 292 | 275 | 567 | 66 | 305 | 32 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 328 | 296 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 117 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 179 | 252 | 274 | 526 | 95 | 259 | 36 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 399 | 353 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 154 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 130 | 225 | 178 | 404 | 48 | 212 | 39 | 9 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 328 | 296 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 117 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 179 | 252 | 274 | 526 | 95 | 259 | 36 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 399 | 353 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 154 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 130 | 225 | 178 | 404 | 48 | 212 | 39 | 9 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 380 | 340 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 128 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 167 | 250 | 237 | 487 | 70 | 252 | 34 | 8 | 228 | 41 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 251 | 239 | 490 | 71 | 255 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 41 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 241 | 216 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 173 | 255 | 253 | 508 | 80 | 255 | 33 | 8 | 236 | 46 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 42% | 272 | 243 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 89 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 175 | 257 | 258 | 515 | 83 | 256 | 33 | 8 | 239 | 48 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 73 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 256 | 254 | 510 | 80 | 257 | 33 | 8 | 237 | 46 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 42% | 113 | 100 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 177 | 258 | 260 | 518 | 83 | 259 | 33 | 9 | 240 | 48 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 186 | 166 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 175 | 259 | 247 | 506 | 72 | 260 | 33 | 9 | 239 | 39 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 101 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 56 | 213 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 174 | 258 | 247 | 505 | 72 | 259 | 33 | 9 | 239 | 39 | -41 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2393 | 2136 | 363 | 61 | 8 | 27 | 187 | 798 | 47 | 99 | 31 | 170 | 252 | 244 | 496 | 74 | 253 | 33 | 8 | 226 | 39 | -47 | +3 | +0 | +8 | +16 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 217 | 13 | 27 | 8 | 171 | 253 | 243 | 497 | 72 | 255 | 33 | 8 | 226 | 39 | -42 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 362 PAwOBA .259 → .195 (−64)K% 30.9% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.94% | ÷1.051 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.81% | ÷1.042 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.95% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 16.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.58% | ÷1.106 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.13% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .259 → .195; ISO .073 → .054; BABIP .257 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 37 PAwOBA .180 → .144 (−36)K% 40.5% → 49.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.54% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 49.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 17.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.125 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .180 → .144; ISO .030 → .023; BABIP .222 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 328 PAwOBA .293 → .230 (−64)K% 28.4% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.35% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.84% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.74% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.26% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 21.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 2.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.62% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .293 → .230; ISO .115 → .092; BABIP .305 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 391 PAwOBA .328 → .259 (−69)K% 24.0% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.04% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.79% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.58% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | — | 26.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | — | 3.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.92% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .328 → .259; ISO .093 → .073; BABIP .346 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Cubs · 145 PAwOBA .326 → .214 (−111)K% 28.3% → 41.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.28% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 41.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.083 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.59% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 24.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 5.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.054 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 111, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .326 → .214; ISO .087 → .054; BABIP .402 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Cubs · 139 PAwOBA .283 → .189 (−94)K% 27.3% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.34% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.07% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 15.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 3.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.87% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 89, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .283 → .189; ISO .127 → .087; BABIP .263 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Cubs 1 · 268 PAwOBA .359 → .230 (−129)K% 14.2% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.36% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 13.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 4.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.99% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .359 → .230; ISO .165 → .092; BABIP .319 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).