Rafael Morel — OGILVIE

Rafael MorelSS South Bend Cubs

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†29

AVG/OBP/SLG.161 / .243 / .228

PA320

HR3

SB10

K%35

BB%8

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	240	48	11	3	3	16	55	9	23	9	200	275	308	584	108	243	21	6	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	230	65	16	5	4	26	38	9	23	9	283	377	448	825	165	319	14	10	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	139	124	17	3	1	2	8	56	3	6	1	137	207	226	433	89	217	40	6	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	139	118	24	4	1	3	14	38	3	6	1	203	304	331	634	127	263	27	10	284	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	145	132	25	5	1	0	7	61	4	4	2	189	252	242	494	53	342	42	5	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	145	126	35	7	2	0	13	41	4	4	2	278	364	365	729	87	402	28	9	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	350	71	8	0	6	34	131	6	16	9	203	285	277	562	74	304	34	9	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	334	88	10	0	7	50	94	6	16	9	263	369	356	726	93	346	24	13	335	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	328	296	51	5	1	7	20	124	9	6	5	172	246	267	513	95	265	38	6	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	328	287	65	7	1	8	29	93	9	6	5	226	317	341	658	115	305	28	9	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	399	353	45	11	0	2	36	156	6	24	2	127	220	176	396	48	216	39	9	187	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	399	335	56	14	0	3	54	127	6	24	2	167	294	236	529	69	254	32	14	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	CHC	—	320	286	47	9	1	3	27	112	4	10	2	164	246	234	480	70	251	35	8	223	29	-26	+1	+0	+3	+9	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	CHC	30%	368	329	57	11	1	5	31	124	5	11	2	173	255	258	513	85	257	34	8	239	41	-25	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.9
2028	26	MLB	CHC	44%	406	363	66	13	1	7	35	133	5	12	2	182	263	281	544	99	260	33	9	248	48	-24	+2	+0	+4	+12	-0.7
2029	27	MLB	CHC	49%	419	375	68	13	1	7	36	135	5	13	2	181	262	277	539	96	262	32	9	252	51	-23	+2	+0	+4	+12	-0.5
2030	28	MLB	CHC	52%	424	379	70	14	1	7	37	137	5	12	2	185	266	282	548	98	262	32	9	253	52	-23	+2	-1	+5	+12	-0.6
2027	25	MLB	CHC	30%	112	100	17	3	0	2	10	38	1	3	1	170	252	260	512	90	258	34	9	230	34	-8	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.4
2028	26	MLB	CHC	44%	180	161	29	6	0	3	15	59	2	5	1	180	258	273	532	93	261	33	8	239	41	-12	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.4
2029	27	MLB	CHC	49%	205	182	34	7	0	4	18	66	3	6	1	187	271	291	562	104	263	32	9	244	45	-13	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
2030	28	MLB	CHC	52%	218	194	37	7	1	4	19	70	3	6	1	191	273	299	572	108	263	32	9	245	45	-13	+1	-0	+2	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	715	637	117	23	1	13	62	233	9	20	4	184	266	284	550	100	263	33	9	241	42	-47	+2	-0	+8	+20	-1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	107	21	1	12	56	212	8	18	4	185	266	287	553	102	265	33	9	241	42	-42	+2	-0	+7	+18	-1.6
Career	—			—	3607	3227	565	103	11	49	287	1224	61	137	38	175	255	259	515	84	261	34	8	235	38	-252	+12	-1	+39	+102	-10.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	102	19	2	9	52	221	11	25	7	175	256	261	517	86	261	34	8	235	38	-45	+2	-0	+7	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	—	268	230	65	16	5	4	26	38	9	23	9	283	377	448	825	165	319	14	10	365	138	+11	+1	—	—	+8	2.0
2021	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	139	118	24	4	1	3	14	38	3	6	1	203	304	331	634	127	263	27	10	284	75	-4	+1	—	—	+4	0.1
2022	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	145	126	35	7	2	0	13	41	4	4	2	278	364	365	729	87	402	28	9	329	110	+2	+0	—	—	+4	0.6
2023	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	391	334	88	10	0	7	50	94	6	16	9	263	369	356	726	93	346	24	13	335	114	+6	-0	—	—	+11	1.7
2024	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	328	287	65	7	1	8	29	93	9	6	5	226	317	341	658	115	305	28	9	300	88	-4	-1	—	—	+9	0.4
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	37	33	4	1	0	0	4	15	0	1	0	121	216	152	368	30	222	41	11	184	-1	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	362	302	52	13	0	3	50	112	6	23	2	172	302	245	547	73	257	31	14	262	59	-17	+4	—	—	+10	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	717	12	21	182	261	278	+8	+6	-1.1	-0.5
	/162	664	11	20	182	261	278	+7.1	+5.6	-1.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Morel (OGILVIE)	24	20	25	60	55	161/243/228	66	251	3	10	35%	8%	29	-1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	42	35→30	53→50	40	195/250/250	55	290	2	14	32%	6%	35	-2.8	219/281/290	71	320	3	12	30%	7%	59	-1.1	227/294/286	60	334	2	11	30%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Auston Bousfield 2017 · AAA	24	37→44	38→40	51→50	44	183/253/255	72	257	6	13	30%	8%	39	-2.5	192/261/276	84	254	6	13	25%	7%	47	-1.9	187/258/267	80	238	6	13	23%	8%	42	-1.4
✕Jordyn Adams 2023 · AA	23	40	38→45	58→60	36	190/243/268	78	298	5	24	36%	6%	37	-2.6	197/256/307	110	301	11	29	36%	7%	53	-1.5	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Trey Martin 2017 · AA	24	37→39	36→40	53→55	34	182/220/242	60	276	4	19	35%	4%	20	-3.8	195/237/286	91	306	8	14	37%	5%	40	-2.4	188/231/286	97	298	10	14	39%	4%	36	-1.7
✕Rob Henry 2019 · A	24	41	37→30	54→55	49	193/289/269	76	284	4	18	30%	10%	59	-1.1	181/267/257	76	330	6	12	43%	9%	46	-2.0	143/238/200	56	291	6	12	48%	8%	17	-2.6
✕Kevin Vicuña 2022 · AAA	24	42→39	36→40	50	38	200/253/266	66	278	4	15	29%	4%	41	-2.3	217/269/305	88	288	5	12	25%	5%	58	-1.2	219/269/308	89	288	4	10	24%	4%	55	-0.5
✕Ethan Murray 2023 · AA	23	35→45	41→40	51→50	42	177/250/275	97	266	9	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	197/270/288	91	301	7	12	34%	8%	55	-1.4	193/271/278	85	293	6	13	33%	8%	49	-1.1
✕Ashton Creal 2023 · A	24	38	41→40	54→55	39	182/261/280	98	290	8	22	38%	7%	50	-1.8	189/265/279	90	345	8	15	44%	7%	51	-1.7	121/213/165	44	300	7	12	56%	7%	-2	-1.2
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→28	42→45	48→50	40	187/248/281	94	262	11	15	32%	6%	43	-2.2	194/265/312	118	265	14	14	31%	8%	59	-1.1	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Cody Bohanek 2019 · AAA	24	39→36	38→40	47→50	41	189/267/262	73	276	7	10	32%	7%	48	-1.9	173/266/261	88	295	8	12	40%	8%	48	-1.9	147/253/237	90	268	8	16	43%	8%	36	-1.6
✕Jawuan Harris 2021 · A	24	36→24	39→40	54→55	40	166/257/253	87	306	7	18	44%	9%	42	-2.3	177/257/259	82	368	6	20	48%	9%	43	-2.2	92/195/135	43	236	2	38	55%	10%	-16	-1.7
✕Stephen Wrenn 2019 · AA	24	41→43	40→45	56→60	38	200/251/291	91	288	8	24	32%	6%	46	-2.0	202/260/314	112	305	9	24	35%	6%	56	-1.3	193/255/314	121	298	11	27	37%	6%	53	-1.0
✕Jayson Hernandez 2013 · AA	24	39	39→30	49→30	36	190/233/274	83	280	6	8	33%	5%	34	-2.8	215/261/287	72	286	5	5	25%	4%	50	-1.8	229/273/258	30	292	2	0	21%	3%	43	-0.8
✕Alfredo Reyes 2017 · A	23	36	36→30	57→55	35	178/218/236	57	272	4	20	35%	5%	17	-4.0	197/250/262	65	326	4	24	38%	6%	38	-2.6	193/254/252	59	326	4	28	39%	7%	34	-1.5
✕Gift Ngoepe 2014 · AA	24	39→40	38→45	51→50	37	180/245/262	82	309	5	17	41%	7%	37	-2.6	203/256/312	109	315	10	11	36%	6%	55	-1.4	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Casio Grider 2012 · A	24	41→40	38→40	57→55	37	195/253/281	86	296	4	20	34%	5%	45	-2.1	200/257/285	85	302	5	22	33%	5%	48	-1.9	189/247/269	80	290	5	27	34%	5%	36	-1.2
✕J.T. Arruda 2022 · A	24	39→41	38→40	54→55	42	186/251/269	83	279	5	13	33%	8%	41	-2.3	201/275/292	91	299	6	20	32%	9%	58	-1.2	205/267/297	93	281	9	23	29%	7%	52	-0.8
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	46	-2.0	217/272/277	60	282	3	17	23%	6%	51	-1.7	231/276/282	51	286	2	23	19%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Oliver Marmol 2010 · A	24	37	37→40	51→55	38	177/252/249	72	262	4	15	32%	5%	38	-2.6	200/280/300	100	309	7	12	35%	6%	63	-0.8	168/266/287	118	282	8	12	39%	7%	54	-0.3