Wyatt Hoffman
SS San Antonio Missions| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+/ASD | 346 | .219/.350/.329 | 4 | 17 | 35 | — | .155/.262/.228 |
| 2025 | 26 | AASD | 207 | .158/.255/.186 | 0 | 8 | 5 | — | .142/.215/.164 |
| 2026 | 27 | AA/A+/ROKSD | 156 | .179/.281/.254 | 1 | 2 | 14 | — | .145/.235/.210 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBSD | 2 | .152/.227/.203 | 0 | 0 | 26 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBSD | 28 | .155/.229/.207 | 0 | 0 | 28 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 29 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 172 | 143 | 315 | 200 | 28 | 3 | 149 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 139 | 117 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 188 | 312 | 291 | 602 | 103 | 288 | 32 | 12 | 282 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | INTL | Auckland Tuatara | — | 78 | 66 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 182 | 308 | 318 | 626 | 136 | 200 | 18 | 10 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 222 | 180 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 61 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 161 | 298 | 189 | 487 | 28 | 240 | 27 | 12 | 238 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 76 | 67 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 316 | 358 | 674 | 134 | 333 | 32 | 11 | 307 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 270 | 216 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 91 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 218 | 360 | 319 | 679 | 102 | 352 | 34 | 13 | 315 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 207 | 177 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 73 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 158 | 255 | 186 | 441 | 28 | 267 | 35 | 9 | 210 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 125 | 107 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 178 | 279 | 262 | 540 | 84 | 290 | 36 | 6 | 251 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 154 | 267 | 231 | 497 | 77 | 222 | 27 | 13 | 239 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 16 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 214 | 527 | 375 | 38 | 6 | 259 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 29 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 138 | 107 | 245 | 187 | 34 | 3 | 119 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 139 | 122 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 123 | 225 | 197 | 421 | 74 | 229 | 45 | 9 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 222 | 189 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 87 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 127 | 233 | 143 | 375 | 16 | 214 | 39 | 8 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 76 | 70 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 237 | 271 | 508 | 100 | 287 | 41 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 270 | 227 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 124 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 150 | 269 | 216 | 485 | 66 | 274 | 46 | 9 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 207 | 183 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 142 | 215 | 164 | 379 | 22 | 245 | 41 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 125 | 110 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 145 | 238 | 218 | 456 | 73 | 253 | 44 | 5 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 15 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 200 | 214 | 414 | 71 | 184 | 33 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 143 | 393 | 289 | 56 | 6 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 246 | 219 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 106 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 123 | 216 | 174 | 390 | 50 | 230 | 43 | 7 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 246 | 211 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 66 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 180 | 294 | 280 | 573 | 100 | 245 | 27 | 11 | 270 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 222 | 189 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 87 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 127 | 233 | 143 | 375 | 16 | 231 | 39 | 8 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 222 | 180 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 61 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 161 | 298 | 189 | 487 | 28 | 240 | 27 | 12 | 238 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 296 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 155 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 152 | 262 | 226 | 488 | 74 | 298 | 45 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 346 | 283 | 62 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 115 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 219 | 350 | 329 | 679 | 110 | 347 | 33 | 12 | 313 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 207 | 183 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 142 | 215 | 164 | 379 | 22 | 260 | 41 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 207 | 177 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 73 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 158 | 255 | 186 | 441 | 28 | 267 | 35 | 9 | 210 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 156 | 138 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 145 | 229 | 210 | 439 | 65 | 275 | 44 | 4 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 156 | 134 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 179 | 281 | 254 | 535 | 75 | 291 | 35 | 7 | 250 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 246 | 218 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 106 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 124 | 216 | 174 | 391 | 50 | 222 | 43 | 7 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 222 | 194 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 87 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 124 | 233 | 139 | 372 | 15 | 214 | 39 | 8 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 299 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 155 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 151 | 262 | 224 | 486 | 74 | 277 | 45 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 207 | 188 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 138 | 215 | 160 | 375 | 21 | 245 | 41 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 156 | 140 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 143 | 229 | 207 | 436 | 64 | 250 | 44 | 4 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 299 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 155 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 151 | 262 | 224 | 486 | 74 | 277 | 45 | 8 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 207 | 188 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 138 | 215 | 160 | 375 | 21 | 245 | 41 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 156 | 140 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 143 | 229 | 207 | 436 | 64 | 250 | 44 | 4 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 2% | 206 | 186 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 79 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 155 | 229 | 208 | 437 | 53 | 260 | 38 | 6 | 207 | 26 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 227 | 203 | 430 | 51 | 254 | 50 | 0 | 204 | 26 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 23% | 122 | 111 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 231 | 212 | 444 | 55 | 260 | 38 | 6 | 209 | 28 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 23% | 28 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 229 | 207 | 436 | 53 | 255 | 39 | 7 | 206 | 28 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 28 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 40 | 286 | 39 | 7 | 206 | 18 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 93 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 255 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 249 | 200 | 449 | 40 | 286 | 39 | 7 | 206 | 18 | -56 | +0 | -7 | +7 | +14 | -4.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1386 | 1216 | 172 | 35 | 3 | 6 | 97 | 580 | 48 | 64 | 20 | 141 | 233 | 190 | 423 | 49 | 260 | 42 | 7 | 194 | 18 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 272 | 23 | 30 | 9 | 140 | 232 | 188 | 420 | 47 | 258 | 42 | 7 | 194 | 18 | -56 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -4.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 125 PAwOBA .247 → .197 (−50)K% 36.0% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.60% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 4.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 18.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .247 → .197; ISO .084 → .066; BABIP .290 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Padres · 16 PAwOBA .253 → .153 (−101)K% 37.5% → 54.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 54.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 3.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 28.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .253 → .153; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .375 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 15 PAwOBA .234 → .173 (−61)K% 26.7% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 9.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 9.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 8.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .234 → .173; ISO .077 → .057; BABIP .222 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 207 PAwOBA .206 → .175 (−31)K% 35.3% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.27% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.93% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.12% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 20.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.81% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 4.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .206 → .175; ISO .028 → .025; BABIP .267 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 270 PAwOBA .311 → .219 (−92)K% 33.7% → 45.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.70% | ÷1.002 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.59% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 8.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.19% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 3.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.60% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.80% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.108 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.970 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.40% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 1.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 122, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .311 → .219; ISO .102 → .068; BABIP .352 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 76 PAwOBA .299 → .224 (−76)K% 31.6% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷0.982 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.60% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 16.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.95% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 11.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.99% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 116, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .299 → .224; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .333 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 222 PAwOBA .235 → .178 (−57)K% 27.5% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.48% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.16% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 2.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.17% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.980 | 18.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×0.980 | 3.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .235 → .178; ISO .028 → .019; BABIP .240 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 139 PAwOBA .278 → .191 (−86)K% 31.7% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.65% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.23% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.81% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 15.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .278 → .191; ISO .103 → .067; BABIP .288 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).