Lucas Dunn — OGILVIE

Lucas Dunn2B Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs A+ HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.168 / .245 / .249

PA22

HR0

K%36

BB%8

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	148	127	30	6	4	2	17	44	2	1	4	236	336	394	729	157	341	30	11	324	105	+1	-1	—	—	+3	0.3
2021	22	ROK	ACL Padres	—	30	22	8	1	1	0	5	5	3	0	2	364	533	500	1.033	136	471	17	17	467	202	+4	-1	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	23	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	355	298	64	13	3	4	49	97	6	8	1	215	337	319	656	104	302	27	14	305	93	-3	+1	—	—	+8	0.6
2022	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	188	150	44	13	5	3	30	49	5	11	4	293	427	507	934	213	410	26	16	407	161	+14	+1	—	—	+4	1.9
2023	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	20	19	1	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	53	100	211	311	158		25	5	139	-20	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2023	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	479	405	92	17	3	7	56	122	13	19	7	227	340	336	675	109	304	25	12	310	96	-2	+1	—	—	+10	0.9
2024	25	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	86	75	15	3	2	0	9	30	1	0	0	200	294	293	587	93	333	35	10	269	68	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	25	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	115	98	17	3	0	3	12	28	2	2	2	173	277	296	573	122	203	24	10	260	62	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	25	ROK	ACL Padres	—	51	43	12	2	0	0	7	16	0	6	0	279	380	326	706	47	429	31	14	324	105	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	148	132	23	4	3	2	12	64	2	1	4	174	253	295	549	121	296	43	8	232	43	-10	-1	—	—	+3	-0.8
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	30	24	7	1	1	0	3	7	3	0	2	292	433	417	850	125	374	23	10	342	118	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.0
2022	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	355	313	51	10	2	3	34	132	6	8	1	163	258	236	494	73	264	37	10	230	42	-25	+1	—	—	+8	-1.6
2022	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	188	159	34	9	3	3	21	68	5	11	4	214	324	365	689	151	326	36	11	300	89	-2	+1	—	—	+4	0.2
2023	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	20	19	1	0	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	53	100	211	311	158		35	5	93	-51	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2023	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	479	421	78	12	2	6	40	162	13	19	7	185	276	266	542	81	274	34	8	247	53	-27	+1	—	—	+10	-1.6
2024	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	86	78	11	2	1	0	6	37	1	0	0	141	212	192	404	51	287	43	7	202	23	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2024	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	115	102	14	2	0	3	8	39	2	2	2	137	214	245	459	108	176	34	7	204	24	-10	-0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2024	25	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	51	46	8	1	0	0	4	23	0	6	0	174	240	196	436	22	336	45	8	213	30	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2021	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	178	156	30	5	4	2	15	71	5	1	6	192	284	314	598	122	333	40	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	178	149	38	7	5	2	22	49	5	1	6	255	369	409	779	154	364	28	12	348	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	543	472	85	19	5	6	55	200	11	19	5	180	281	280	560	100	293	37	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	543	448	108	26	8	7	79	146	11	19	5	241	368	382	750	141	338	27	15	340	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	499	441	79	12	2	7	40	169	13	19	7	179	267	263	530	84	268	34	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	499	424	93	17	3	8	57	127	13	19	7	219	330	330	660	111	290	25	11	304	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	252	225	34	6	1	3	19	99	3	8	2	151	227	227	453	76	246	39	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	252	216	44	8	2	3	28	74	3	8	2	204	304	301	605	97	289	29	11	276	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	178	156	30	5	4	2	15	71	5	1	6	192	284	314	598	122	309	40	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	543	472	85	19	5	6	55	200	11	19	5	180	281	280	560	100	285	37	10	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	499	443	79	12	2	7	40	169	13	19	7	178	267	262	529	84	263	34	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	252	228	34	6	1	3	19	99	3	8	2	149	227	224	450	75	246	39	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	499	443	79	12	2	7	40	169	13	19	7	178	267	262	529	84	263	34	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	252	228	34	6	1	3	19	99	3	8	2	149	227	224	450	75	246	39	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	SD	0%	22	20	3	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	150	227	200	427	50	260	36	9	231	43	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	26%	293	264	46	9	1	4	23	101	4	6	2	174	251	261	512	87	264	34	8	240	48	-18	+0	-1	+1	+6	-1.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	26%	76	69	11	2	0	1	6	26	1	1	0	159	237	232	469	72	261	34	8	228	48	-5	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	76	69	11	2	0	1	6	26	1	1	0	159	237	232	469	72	238	34	8	228	49	-5	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	94	17	0	9	51	222	9	9	0	159	237	234	471	75	237	34	8	228	49	-40	+2	-2	+2	+14	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1787	1578	277	52	13	22	154	648	36	53	22	176	264	267	531	91	277	36	9	241	49	-20	+0	-1	+1	+7	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	101	19	5	8	56	236	13	19	8	176	264	268	533	92	278	36	9	241	49	-40	+1	-1	+2	+14	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Dunn (OGILVIE)	27	20	35	49	48	168/245/249	81	260	3	5	36%	8%	43	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/260/291	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/263/303	126	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Madison Stokes 2023 · AAA	27	38→36	42→45	49→40	36	185/242/292	107	298	10	9	40%	6%	50	-2.3	195/273/300	105	301	9	9	35%	9%	64	-1.3	175/268/272	96	267	7	6	34%	10%	54	-1.5
✕Cody Bohanek 2022 · AAA	27	37→36	44→40	49→50	41	179/279/296	117	290	11	16	39%	8%	67	-1.1	188/278/283	95	308	7	15	38%	8%	63	-1.4	151/250/213	62	271	3	16	40%	8%	35	-1.6
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA	27	40→38	40	42→50	41	200/256/286	87	277	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	188/252/288	100	262	11	11	31%	7%	53	-2.1	153/225/238	85	211	12	11	32%	7%	30	-1.3
✕Christian Kelley 2021 · AAA	27	38	42→40	48→30	40	191/248/295	104	256	10	5	29%	6%	53	-2.1	228/293/328	100	322	8	8	29%	8%	77	-0.3	245/316/306	61	355	3	0	29%	9%	80	-0.0
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB	27	39→49	38→40	46→50	40	190/245/264	74	274	6	8	32%	6%	45	-2.7	220/258/323	103	315	12	17	33%	5%	63	-1.4	224/249/331	107	323	14	23	34%	3%	57	-1.1
✕Ryan Metzler 2019 · AAA	26	40	40	50	38	196/250/283	87	289	8	15	33%	6%	51	-2.3	205/260/298	93	305	8	12	33%	6%	57	-1.8	147/203/184	38	244	3	8	39%	6%	9	-1.0
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37→38	37→40	43→45	44	179/255/251	73	251	5	8	29%	7%	47	-2.6	194/257/270	76	290	5	7	32%	7%	51	-2.3	168/234/218	51	258	3	3	33%	7%	28	-2.1
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	38	39→45	50→55	41	183/248/269	86	262	6	14	31%	6%	47	-2.5	191/270/312	121	306	13	16	39%	8%	66	-1.1	174/262/298	124	289	15	19	41%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Joe Hudson 2018 · AA	27	36	38→45	46→40	45	178/242/259	81	242	5	3	28%	8%	42	-2.9	201/257/311	110	284	11	4	32%	7%	60	-1.6	175/280/306	130	256	18	8	36%	11%	67	-0.3
✕Chris Rabago 2021 · AAA	28	40	41→40	49→55	44	196/256/294	98	264	8	14	28%	7%	55	-1.9	194/262/280	86	289	7	11	33%	7%	55	-2.0	164/237/224	60	253	5	8	35%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	35→32	46→45	51→45	43	183/260/311	127	264	14	9	35%	8%	62	-1.4	186/255/300	114	261	13	10	32%	8%	57	-1.8	133/209/225	92	172	14	8	32%	7%	22	-1.9
✕Ali Solis 2015 · AAA	27	40	39→45	45→30	33	198/228/280	82	275	6	5	30%	3%	40	-3.0	180/213/255	75	251	6	4	30%	3%	29	-3.8	194/230/312	118	254	15	2	30%	4%	47	-0.9
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	36→25	44→50	49→50	35	186/241/304	118	277	12	9	36%	5%	53	-2.1	214/275/326	112	297	10	10	30%	5%	70	-0.8	213/284/304	91	290	6	9	26%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	42→45	45→50	39	185/255/296	111	276	9	10	35%	7%	57	-1.8	191/270/296	105	294	8	13	35%	8%	62	-1.4	163/254/261	99	255	6	16	35%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Chandler Seagle 2023 · AA	27	41	39→40	44→45	38	199/254/282	84	287	6	5	32%	5%	52	-2.2	181/227/257	76	296	6	7	39%	5%	36	-3.4	148/189/203	55	257	3	4	42%	3%	7	-1.6
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	39	43→45	51→50	40	191/266/297	106	296	11	14	37%	8%	61	-1.5	204/277/306	102	299	9	14	32%	8%	67	-1.1	198/298/294	96	261	9	24	25%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Jason Martinson 2016 · AAA	27	38→41	43→45	52→50	38	192/252/297	105	289	11	13	36%	7%	55	-1.9	180/237/288	108	304	11	9	42%	6%	47	-2.5	158/211/261	103	279	10	8	45%	5%	28	-2.3
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Hamlet Marte 2021 · AA	27	40	42→45	44→45	39	197/254/295	99	296	10	6	35%	7%	55	-1.9	198/255/294	96	327	9	8	39%	7%	55	-1.9	157/217/238	81	251	10	4	40%	6%	26	-0.8