Lucas Dunn2B
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 27
R/R
5'11" / 205 lbs
A+
HR +13%BB +8%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
wRC+†49
AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .261 / .275
PA250
HR4
SB5
K%34
BB%8
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
35→35
SPD
49→49
EYE
48→48
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.6peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-8M | $-21M | -$13M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | 2 teams | 178 | 157 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 72 | 5 | 1 | 6 | .191 | .278 | .312 | .591 | .121 | .333 | 40 | 8 | .252 | 51 | -10 | -2 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 543 | 472 | 87 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 192 | 11 | 19 | 5 | .184 | .284 | .284 | .568 | .100 | .291 | 35 | 10 | .257 | 55 | -28 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +15 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | 2 teams | 499 | 441 | 81 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 160 | 13 | 19 | 7 | .184 | .271 | .268 | .539 | .084 | .266 | 32 | 8 | .244 | 45 | -31 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | 3 teams | 252 | 225 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 99 | 3 | 8 | 2 | .151 | .227 | .227 | .453 | .076 | .246 | 39 | 8 | .201 | 12 | -25 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SD | 250 | 224 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 85 | 4 | 5 | 2 | .183 | .262 | .277 | .539 | .094 | .275 | 34 | 8 | .249 | 49 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB 8% | SD | 293 | 263 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 5 | 2 | .190 | .268 | .289 | .557 | .099 | .277 | 33 | 8 | .255 | 54 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB 18% | SD | 321 | 287 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 104 | 5 | 5 | 2 | .192 | .270 | .286 | .556 | .094 | .278 | 32 | 8 | .258 | 56 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB 28% | SD | 340 | 304 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 110 | 5 | 5 | 2 | .194 | .273 | .296 | .569 | .102 | .277 | 32 | 8 | .259 | 56 | -17 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +10 | -0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB 39% | SD | 334 | 299 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 109 | 5 | 4 | 1 | .187 | .266 | .278 | .543 | .090 | .276 | 33 | 8 | .256 | 54 | -17 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +9 | -0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB 49% | SD | 320 | 287 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 106 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .188 | .265 | .282 | .547 | .094 | .274 | 33 | 8 | .252 | 51 | -18 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +9 | -1.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB 63% | SD | 294 | 264 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 99 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .186 | .264 | .273 | .536 | .087 | .273 | 34 | 8 | .247 | 47 | -18 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +8 | -1.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB 80% | SD | 253 | 228 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 88 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .175 | .251 | .254 | .505 | .079 | .271 | 35 | 8 | .241 | 42 | -16 | +0 | -5 | +1 | +7 | -1.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3877 | 3451 | 636 | 115 | 20 | 55 | 323 | 1321 | 66 | 78 | 30 | .184 | .267 | .277 | .544 | .093 | .277 | 34 | 8 | .249 | 49 | -226 | +4 | -20 | +14 | +110 | -12.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 579 | 106 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 54 | 221 | 11 | 13 | 5 | .183 | .266 | .273 | .538 | .090 | .275 | 34 | 8 | .249 | 49 | -38 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +18 | -2.0 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 148 | 127 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 4 | .236 | .336 | .394 | .729 | .157 | .341 | 30 | 11 | .324 | 106 | +1 | -1 | — | — | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Padres | 30 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .364 | .533 | .500 | 1.033 | .136 | .471 | 17 | 17 | .467 | 216 | +4 | -1 | — | — | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 355 | 298 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 97 | 6 | 8 | 1 | .215 | .337 | .319 | .656 | .104 | .302 | 27 | 14 | .305 | 92 | -3 | +1 | — | — | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 188 | 150 | 44 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 49 | 5 | 11 | 4 | .293 | .427 | .507 | .934 | .213 | .410 | 26 | 16 | .407 | 169 | +15 | +1 | — | — | +5 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 20 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .053 | .100 | .211 | .311 | .158 | .000 | 25 | 5 | .139 | -35 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 479 | 405 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 56 | 122 | 13 | 19 | 7 | .227 | .340 | .336 | .675 | .109 | .304 | 25 | 12 | .310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | — | — | +14 | 1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 86 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .294 | .293 | .587 | .093 | .333 | 35 | 10 | .269 | 64 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 115 | 98 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .173 | .277 | .296 | .573 | .122 | .203 | 24 | 10 | .260 | 57 | -6 | -0 | — | — | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Padres | 51 | 43 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 0 | .279 | .380 | .326 | .706 | .047 | .429 | 31 | 14 | .324 | 106 | +0 | +1 | — | — | +1 | 0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Lucas Dunn (OGILVIE) | 27 | 20 | 35 | 49 | 48 | .184/.261/.275 | .091 | .275 | 4 | 5 | 34% | 8% | 49 | -0.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA |
27 | 36 | 44→45 | 46→45 | 43 | .181/.257/.295 | .114 | .275 | 12 | 9 | 37% | 9% | 52 | -1.6 | .181/.267/.319 | .138 | .277 | 18 | 6 | 38% | 10% | 63 | -0.9 | .145/.237/.274 | .129 | .209 | 19 | 3 | 39% | 10% | 37 | -0.8 |
|
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA |
26 | 37 | 39→45 | 50→55 | 40 | .183/.248/.270 | .087 | .268 | 6 | 14 | 32% | 6% | 40 | -2.4 | .194/.274/.324 | .130 | .304 | 14 | 16 | 38% | 9% | 67 | -0.5 | .179/.266/.318 | .140 | .290 | 17 | 19 | 41% | 9% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
✕Cody Bohanek 2022 · AAA |
27 | 37→36 | 43→40 | 48→50 | 40 | .177/.276/.289 | .112 | .295 | 10 | 15 | 40% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .186/.277/.284 | .098 | .306 | 8 | 15 | 38% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .151/.251/.216 | .064 | .271 | 3 | 16 | 40% | 8% | 27 | -1.6 |
|
✕Angelo Castellano 2022 · AAA |
27 | 38→42 | 43→45 | 49→50 | 40 | .196/.249/.299 | .103 | .256 | 12 | 13 | 28% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .207/.271/.322 | .115 | .258 | 13 | 13 | 24% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .204/.274/.324 | .120 | .246 | 14 | 14 | 23% | 8% | 62 | -0.4 |
|
✕Chris Rabago 2021 · AAA |
28 | 39 | 41→40 | 50→55 | 43 | .192/.252/.291 | .099 | .264 | 9 | 14 | 30% | 7% | 47 | -1.9 | .193/.261/.280 | .087 | .291 | 8 | 11 | 34% | 7% | 49 | -1.8 | .161/.236/.224 | .063 | .253 | 6 | 8 | 36% | 7% | 21 | -1.1 |
|
✕Jason Delay 2023 · MLB |
28 | 41 | 39→45 | 42→40 | 39 | .202/.249/.290 | .088 | .280 | 7 | 5 | 30% | 5% | 45 | -2.1 | .221/.277/.307 | .086 | .290 | 5 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .215/.272/.281 | .066 | .278 | 3 | 2 | 22% | 6% | 49 | -0.6 |
|
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB |
27 | 38→48 | 38→40 | 45→50 | 38 | .187/.238/.257 | .071 | .270 | 6 | 7 | 32% | 6% | 32 | -3.0 | .216/.254/.318 | .102 | .312 | 12 | 16 | 33% | 5% | 55 | -1.4 | .224/.248/.329 | .106 | .322 | 14 | 23 | 35% | 3% | 50 | -1.1 |
|
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2006 · AAA |
27 | 42 | 41→45 | 49→30 | 40 | .201/.263/.297 | .096 | .303 | 9 | 9 | 35% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .204/.258/.316 | .112 | .265 | 12 | 5 | 27% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .200/.252/.315 | .114 | .251 | 13 | 1 | 25% | 6% | 52 | -0.7 |
|
✕Ryan Metzler 2019 · AAA |
26 | 40 | 40 | 50 | 38 | .193/.248/.281 | .088 | .293 | 8 | 15 | 36% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .204/.258/.297 | .093 | .310 | 9 | 12 | 35% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .145/.202/.182 | .037 | .248 | 4 | 8 | 41% | 6% | -4 | -1.0 |
|
✕Willie Argo 2017 · AA |
27 | 42→36 | 39→40 | 52→55 | 47 | .200/.282/.280 | .080 | .283 | 7 | 19 | 30% | 9% | 58 | -1.2 | .197/.253/.328 | .131 | .305 | 14 | 15 | 38% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .160/.218/.290 | .130 | .244 | 15 | 17 | 40% | 6% | 33 | -1.5 |
|
✕Micah Gibbs 2015 · AA |
27 | 39 | 39→30 | 47→45 | 44 | .188/.264/.271 | .083 | .282 | 6 | 8 | 33% | 8% | 48 | -1.9 | .210/.266/.313 | .103 | .290 | 8 | 8 | 29% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .195/.246/.310 | .115 | .264 | 10 | 0 | 29% | 6% | 50 | -0.3 |
|
✕Erick Monzon 2009 · AA |
27 | 38→42 | 41→45 | 52→50 | 43 | .193/.246/.292 | .100 | .253 | 9 | 12 | 27% | 7% | 45 | -2.1 | .198/.248/.305 | .107 | .279 | 12 | 12 | 32% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .178/.219/.275 | .097 | .243 | 15 | 13 | 33% | 5% | 27 | -1.0 |
|
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA |
27 | 40→36 | 41→40 | 42→50 | 41 | .197/.255/.287 | .090 | .280 | 10 | 9 | 32% | 7% | 47 | -1.9 | .187/.250/.285 | .098 | .263 | 11 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .153/.225/.238 | .085 | .211 | 12 | 11 | 32% | 7% | 22 | -1.3 |
|
✕Carlos Garzon 2019 · AAA |
27 | 41 | 41→30 | 48→45 | 39 | .205/.253/.300 | .096 | .284 | 9 | 11 | 30% | 5% | 50 | -1.7 | .215/.273/.288 | .073 | .297 | 5 | 6 | 27% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .203/.265/.239 | .037 | .286 | 1 | 0 | 27% | 6% | 36 | -1.4 |
|
✕Logan Warmoth 2023 · AAA |
27 | 42→39 | 43→45 | 51→55 | 41 | .202/.279/.316 | .113 | .314 | 11 | 19 | 37% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .197/.275/.297 | .100 | .290 | 10 | 22 | 33% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .177/.264/.256 | .079 | .258 | 8 | 25 | 32% | 9% | 44 | -1.3 |
|
✕Madison Stokes 2023 · AAA |
27 | 38→36 | 43→45 | 49→40 | 35 | .186/.243/.299 | .112 | .305 | 11 | 9 | 41% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .192/.271/.300 | .108 | .306 | 9 | 9 | 37% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .176/.270/.275 | .099 | .273 | 8 | 6 | 35% | 10% | 49 | -1.3 |
|
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA |
26 | 38→39 | 45 | 45→50 | 39 | .191/.258/.315 | .124 | .278 | 12 | 11 | 34% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .189/.266/.294 | .105 | .293 | 8 | 13 | 36% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .164/.257/.268 | .103 | .258 | 7 | 16 | 36% | 9% | 46 | -1.0 |
|
✕Errol Robinson 2022 · AAA |
27 | 42→48 | 38→40 | 46→55 | 43 | .199/.264/.276 | .077 | .291 | 6 | 13 | 32% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .206/.279/.277 | .071 | .327 | 5 | 20 | 35% | 9% | 55 | -1.4 | .201/.275/.251 | .051 | .314 | 3 | 26 | 34% | 9% | 44 | -0.7 |
|
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2010 · AAA |
27 | 41 | 39→45 | 43→40 | 38 | .200/.251/.280 | .080 | .279 | 8 | 4 | 30% | 5% | 43 | -2.2 | .214/.274/.300 | .086 | .297 | 7 | 3 | 29% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .210/.275/.291 | .081 | .289 | 7 | 0 | 28% | 7% | 55 | -0.6 |
|
✕Donny Lucy 2010 · MLB |
27 | 42→45 | 40 | 48→50 | 38 | .207/.248/.294 | .088 | .281 | 8 | 10 | 29% | 5% | 46 | -2.0 | .199/.244/.294 | .095 | .265 | 9 | 8 | 27% | 5% | 44 | -2.1 | .178/.227/.267 | .089 | .231 | 8 | 5 | 26% | 4% | 27 | -1.1 |