Lucas Dunn — OGILVIE

Lucas Dunn2B Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs A+ HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†34

AVG/OBP/SLG.165 / .242 / .249

PA250

HR4

SB5

K%38

BB%8

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	2 teams	—	178	157	27	4	3	2	14	76	5	1	6	172	261	274	535	102	312	43	8	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	2 teams	—	178	149	38	7	5	2	22	49	5	1	6	255	369	409	779	154	364	28	12	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	2 teams	—	543	472	84	19	5	6	55	203	11	19	5	178	279	278	556	100	292	37	10	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	2 teams	—	543	448	108	26	8	7	79	146	11	19	5	241	368	382	750	141	338	27	15	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	2 teams	—	499	440	83	11	2	9	41	167	13	19	7	189	277	284	561	95	276	33	8	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	2 teams	—	499	424	93	17	3	8	57	127	13	19	7	219	330	330	660	111	290	25	11	304	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+	3 teams	—	252	225	34	6	1	3	19	102	3	8	2	151	227	227	453	76	252	40	8	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+	3 teams	—	252	216	44	8	2	3	28	74	3	8	2	204	304	301	605	97	289	29	11	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	SD	—	250	224	38	7	1	4	20	94	4	5	2	170	250	263	513	94	262	38	8	230	34	-19	+0	+0	+1	+7	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	SD	26%	293	264	46	8	1	5	23	106	4	6	2	174	251	269	520	95	265	36	8	238	41	-20	+0	-1	+1	+8	-1.1
2027	28	MLB	SD	26%	76	69	11	2	0	1	6	28	1	1	0	159	237	232	469	72	262	37	8	225	31	-6	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	76	69	11	2	0	1	6	28	1	1	0	159	237	232	469	72	250	37	8	225	31	-6	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	94	17	0	9	51	239	9	9	0	159	237	234	471	75	249	37	8	225	31	-51	+2	-2	+2	+18	-3.1
Career	—			—	2015	1782	312	55	13	29	172	748	40	58	24	175	263	269	532	94	278	37	9	240	42	-132	+2	-1	+7	+57	-6.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	100	18	4	9	55	241	13	19	8	174	261	266	527	92	276	37	8	240	42	-43	+1	-0	+2	+18	-2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	148	127	30	6	4	2	17	44	2	1	4	236	336	394	729	157	341	30	11	324	106	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	22	ROK	ACL Padres	—	30	22	8	1	1	0	5	5	3	0	2	364	533	500	1.033	136	471	17	17	467	216	+4	-1	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	23	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	355	298	64	13	3	4	49	97	6	8	1	215	337	319	656	104	302	27	14	305	92	-3	+1	—	—	+10	0.8
2022	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	188	150	44	13	5	3	30	49	5	11	4	293	427	507	934	213	410	26	16	407	169	+15	+1	—	—	+5	2.1
2023	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	20	19	1	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	53	100	211	311	158		25	5	139	-35	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	479	405	92	17	3	7	56	122	13	19	7	227	340	336	675	109	304	25	12	310	96	-2	+1	—	—	+14	1.3
2024	25	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	86	75	15	3	2	0	9	30	1	0	0	200	294	293	587	93	333	35	10	269	64	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	25	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	115	98	17	3	0	3	12	28	2	2	2	173	277	296	573	122	203	24	10	260	57	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2024	25	ROK	ACL Padres	—	51	43	12	2	0	0	7	16	0	6	0	279	380	326	706	47	429	31	14	324	106	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Dunn (OGILVIE)	27	20	35	49	47	165/242/249	84	262	4	5	38%	8%	34	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Madison Stokes 2023 · AAA	27	37→35	42→40	49→40	34	180/237/285	105	304	10	9	42%	6%	40	-2.4	191/271/298	107	304	9	9	37%	9%	58	-1.2	169/265/267	98	265	8	6	36%	11%	45	-1.5
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	35	44→45	47→45	44	179/260/291	112	277	12	9	38%	10%	52	-1.6	180/266/322	142	275	19	6	39%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Ryan Metzler 2019 · AAA	26	39	40	50	38	192/244/277	85	285	8	15	34%	6%	40	-2.4	202/255/293	91	305	9	12	34%	6%	49	-1.8	138/193/172	34	236	3	8	41%	6%	-10	-1.1
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB	27	37→47	38→45	46→50	39	184/239/256	72	270	6	8	33%	6%	33	-2.9	217/255/317	100	318	11	17	34%	4%	54	-1.4	222/246/322	99	331	13	23	36%	3%	49	-1.1
✕Jason Martinson 2016 · AAA	27	37→39	44→45	52→50	38	189/250/296	107	286	12	13	37%	7%	48	-1.9	178/233/289	111	303	12	9	43%	5%	39	-2.5	153/204/262	109	276	11	8	47%	4%	16	-2.4
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA	26	38→36	38→40	44→50	38	172/263/245	73	309	5	11	42%	8%	42	-2.3	183/278/292	109	301	9	15	39%	8%	61	-1.0	161/264/270	110	265	10	18	39%	8%	48	-1.0
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA	27	40→36	41→40	42→50	40	201/255/292	91	279	10	9	31%	6%	49	-1.8	189/252/290	101	263	12	11	31%	6%	47	-1.9	154/225/240	86	212	12	11	33%	7%	22	-1.3
✕Chris Rabago 2021 · AAA	28	39	41→40	49→55	43	192/252/288	96	264	8	14	30%	7%	46	-2.0	189/256/275	86	286	8	11	34%	7%	45	-2.1	154/227/217	62	241	6	8	36%	7%	15	-1.2
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	35→31	47→45	51→45	43	182/258/317	135	266	15	9	36%	8%	58	-1.2	187/257/316	129	263	16	10	34%	8%	57	-1.2	134/210/250	116	164	19	8	33%	8%	18	-1.7
✕Hamlet Marte 2021 · AA	27	39	42→45	44→45	38	192/249/290	98	298	10	6	38%	7%	46	-2.0	199/256/301	102	333	10	8	40%	7%	52	-1.6	160/221/250	90	259	11	4	40%	6%	21	-0.8
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Chandler Seagle 2023 · AA	27	41	40	44→45	37	199/255/289	91	295	8	5	34%	6%	49	-1.8	179/226/256	77	302	6	7	41%	5%	27	-3.3	143/184/197	54	257	3	4	44%	3%	-9	-1.7
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	38	43→45	51→50	38	183/255/286	103	300	11	14	40%	7%	49	-1.8	201/273/302	101	301	9	14	34%	8%	59	-1.1	198/297/294	96	260	8	24	25%	10%	65	-0.1
✕Mike Salvatore 2023 · A	26	31	41→40	49→45	40	165/225/253	88	235	9	5	33%	7%	26	-3.4	191/259/280	89	260	8	8	28%	8%	48	-1.9	174/253/251	76	228	6	7	25%	9%	34	-1.1
✕Joe Hudson 2018 · AA	27	36	38→45	46→40	43	176/238/256	80	243	5	3	29%	7%	33	-2.9	198/252/310	112	281	12	4	32%	6%	53	-1.5	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Ali Solis 2015 · AAA	27	40	40→45	46→30	33	200/229/288	88	275	7	5	30%	3%	35	-2.8	182/214/260	78	254	7	4	30%	3%	21	-3.7	193/228/318	126	252	17	2	31%	4%	41	-0.8
✕Errol Robinson 2022 · AAA	27	41→47	38→40	47→55	43	194/261/270	76	292	6	13	34%	8%	46	-2.0	208/279/278	70	327	5	20	34%	8%	56	-1.3	204/277/255	51	317	3	26	33%	8%	45	-0.7
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	36	39→50	50→55	40	177/243/264	88	262	6	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	198/276/337	139	318	16	16	40%	8%	71	-0.3	186/272/335	149	306	19	19	42%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Christian Kelley 2021 · AAA	27	38	45→40	47→30	40	194/250/312	118	257	13	5	29%	6%	53	-1.5	231/295/334	103	322	9	8	29%	8%	76	+0.1	254/328/320	66	364	4	0	28%	9%	87	+0.2