Ethan Workinger
LF Columbus Clingstones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+2 orgs | 545 | .254/.338/.386 | 12 | 9 | 63 | — | .212/.266/.338 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAATL | 493 | .224/.299/.385 | 16 | 12 | 57 | — | .195/.251/.335 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAATL | 149 | .205/.306/.323 | 4 | 5 | 44 | — | .179/.252/.269 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBATL | 2 | .208/.266/.337 | 0 | 0 | 69 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBATL | 49 | .211/.269/.343 | 1 | 1 | 71 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 122 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 284 | 333 | 618 | 147 | 233 | 27 | 9 | 268 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 70 | 63 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 270 | 333 | 492 | 825 | 222 | 357 | 29 | 9 | 355 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 172 | 155 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 239 | 310 | 419 | 729 | 181 | 273 | 18 | 8 | 322 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 201 | 190 | 42 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 256 | 305 | 562 | 84 | 323 | 32 | 4 | 251 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 258 | 225 | 65 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 289 | 380 | 507 | 887 | 218 | 321 | 18 | 12 | 391 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 121 | 111 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 273 | 288 | 561 | 81 | 242 | 16 | 8 | 258 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Rome Emperors | — | 424 | 366 | 98 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 84 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 268 | 357 | 415 | 772 | 148 | 316 | 20 | 12 | 344 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 493 | 441 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 90 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 224 | 299 | 385 | 685 | 161 | 246 | 18 | 9 | 306 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 149 | 127 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 205 | 306 | 323 | 629 | 118 | 244 | 23 | 13 | 286 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 122 | 106 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 123 | 198 | 208 | 406 | 85 | 174 | 39 | 6 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 70 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 261 | 369 | 630 | 154 | 337 | 37 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 172 | 160 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 169 | 222 | 287 | 510 | 119 | 202 | 24 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 201 | 194 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 186 | 227 | 413 | 62 | 279 | 42 | 2 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 258 | 234 | 55 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 63 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 235 | 306 | 406 | 712 | 171 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 121 | 114 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 231 | 263 | 495 | 79 | 224 | 19 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rome Emperors | — | 424 | 390 | 86 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 112 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 221 | 276 | 359 | 635 | 138 | 268 | 26 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 493 | 457 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 108 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 195 | 251 | 335 | 585 | 140 | 220 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 149 | 134 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 179 | 252 | 269 | 520 | 90 | 220 | 29 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 122 | 106 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 123 | 198 | 208 | 406 | 85 | 188 | 39 | 6 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Braves | — | 122 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 284 | 333 | 618 | 147 | 233 | 27 | 9 | 268 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 225 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 68 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 182 | 233 | 311 | 544 | 129 | 239 | 28 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 218 | 54 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 248 | 317 | 440 | 757 | 193 | 294 | 21 | 8 | 332 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 428 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 148 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 201 | 252 | 315 | 567 | 114 | 282 | 32 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 459 | 415 | 107 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 110 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 258 | 326 | 414 | 740 | 157 | 322 | 24 | 9 | 329 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 505 | 108 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 134 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 214 | 266 | 339 | 605 | 125 | 262 | 25 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 545 | 477 | 121 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 59 | 103 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 254 | 338 | 386 | 724 | 132 | 298 | 19 | 11 | 325 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 493 | 457 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 108 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 195 | 251 | 335 | 585 | 140 | 223 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | Columbus Clingstones | — | 493 | 441 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 90 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 224 | 299 | 385 | 685 | 161 | 246 | 18 | 9 | 306 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 149 | 134 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 179 | 252 | 269 | 520 | 90 | 233 | 29 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | Columbus Clingstones | — | 149 | 127 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 205 | 306 | 323 | 629 | 118 | 244 | 23 | 13 | 286 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 122 | 111 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 117 | 198 | 198 | 396 | 81 | 174 | 39 | 6 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 225 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 68 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 182 | 233 | 311 | 544 | 129 | 241 | 28 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 459 | 427 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 148 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 201 | 252 | 316 | 568 | 115 | 282 | 32 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 504 | 108 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 134 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 214 | 266 | 339 | 605 | 125 | 258 | 25 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 493 | 456 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 108 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 195 | 251 | 336 | 586 | 140 | 220 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 149 | 135 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 178 | 252 | 267 | 518 | 89 | 220 | 29 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 504 | 108 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 134 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 214 | 266 | 339 | 605 | 125 | 258 | 25 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 493 | 456 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 108 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 195 | 251 | 336 | 586 | 140 | 220 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 149 | 135 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 178 | 252 | 267 | 518 | 89 | 220 | 29 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | ATL | 2% | 200 | 184 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 266 | 337 | 603 | 129 | 259 | 26 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | ATL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 266 | 337 | 603 | 129 | 259 | 50 | 0 | 270 | 69 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | ATL | 31% | 157 | 144 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 269 | 343 | 612 | 133 | 261 | 26 | 7 | 274 | 71 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | ATL | 31% | 49 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 269 | 343 | 612 | 133 | 261 | 27 | 6 | 274 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 49 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 245 | 304 | 549 | 109 | 250 | 27 | 6 | 274 | 55 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 610 | 120 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 40 | 172 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 197 | 246 | 305 | 551 | 108 | 252 | 26 | 6 | 274 | 55 | -22 | +3 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2259 | 2084 | 408 | 72 | 16 | 50 | 138 | 613 | 18 | 39 | 22 | 196 | 252 | 318 | 569 | 122 | 249 | 27 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 118 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 40 | 176 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 197 | 253 | 318 | 571 | 122 | 251 | 27 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -23 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 149 PAwOBA .283 → .233 (−50)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 2.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.47% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .283 → .233; ISO .118 → .098; BABIP .244 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 493 PAwOBA .299 → .253 (−46)K% 18.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.26% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.72% | ÷1.036 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.66% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 15.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.951 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷1.108 | ×0.880 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.56% | ÷0.934 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 122, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .299 → .253; ISO .161 → .143; BABIP .246 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Rome Emperors · 424 PAwOBA .338 → .273 (−66)K% 19.8% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.81% | ÷0.982 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.56% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.47% | ÷0.993 | ×0.870 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 20.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.985 | ×0.780 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.831 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.12% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 66, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .338 → .273; ISO .148 → .143; BABIP .316 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMississippi Braves · 121 PAwOBA .251 → .219 (−33)K% 15.7% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.70% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.025 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.48% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.027 | 16.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.899 | ×0.910 | ×0.967 | ×1.027 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.997 | ×0.880 | ×0.967 | ×1.027 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.906 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 101, 2B 80, 3B 99, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .251 → .219; ISO .081 → .076; BABIP .242 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 258 PAwOBA .380 → .306 (−74)K% 17.8% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.83% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.02% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.91% | ÷0.961 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | — | 21.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.063 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | — | 4.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | — | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.04% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 92, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .380 → .306; ISO .218 → .172; BABIP .321 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Rome Braves · 201 PAwOBA .246 → .180 (−66)K% 31.8% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.84% | ÷0.985 | ×1.310 | — | — | 42.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.48% | ÷1.045 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 2.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.977 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 19.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.32% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 8.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.087 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.022 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.69% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 117, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .246 → .180; ISO .084 → .060; BABIP .323 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Braves · 172 PAwOBA .315 → .217 (−99)K% 18.0% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.02% | ÷1.050 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.56% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 13.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.120 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.42% | ÷1.013 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.985 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.32% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 124, 3B 103, K 110, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .315 → .217; ISO .181 → .119; BABIP .273 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 70 PAwOBA .351 → .286 (−65)K% 28.6% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.050 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.93% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 20.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷0.931 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 8.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 4.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.127 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 110, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .351 → .286; ISO .222 → .173; BABIP .357 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).