Jeremy Reyes — OGILVIE

Jeremy Reyes P Rome Emperors

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%17.4%

BB%19.8%

K-BB%-2.3%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	5	4	8	40	7	6	0	80%	1.7	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	0.0%	5.40	3.52	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	5	4	8	40	7	6	0	80%	1.7	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	0.0%	5.40	3.52	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	5	4	8	40	7	6	0	80%	1.7	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	0.0%	5.40	3.58	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	37	155	32	25	0	89%	4.1	14.4%	19.6%	-5.2%	0.0%	1.96	4.37	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	37	155	32	25	0	89%	4.1	14.4%	19.6%	-5.2%	0.0%	1.96	4.37	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	37	155	32	25	0	89%	4.1	20.6%	16.1%	4.5%	0.0%	1.96	3.40	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	18	18	76	328	84	49	2	100%	4.2	19.0%	17.6%	1.3%	0.6%	2.71	4.07	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	18	18	76	328	84	49	2	100%	4.2	19.0%	17.6%	1.3%	0.6%	2.71	4.07	—
2025	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	18	18	76	328	84	49	2	100%	4.2	25.6%	14.9%	10.7%	0.6%	2.71	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	15	15	63	290	49	48	8	100%	4.2	12.7%	20.0%	-7.2%	2.6%	6.57	5.97	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	15	15	63	290	49	48	8	100%	4.2	12.7%	20.0%	-7.2%	2.6%	6.57	5.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	ATL	3	3	10	48	9	6	3	100%	3.3	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	9.00	6.53	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	ATL	12	12	53	242	40	42	5	100%	4.4	16.5%	17.4%	-0.8%	2.1%	6.11	5.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	72	304	56	52	8	100%	4.8	18.4%	17.1%	1.4%	2.5%	5.59	5.48	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	76	320	63	48	8	100%	5.0	19.7%	15.1%	4.7%	2.5%	5.26	5.10	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	78	331	68	46	8	100%	5.2	20.6%	13.7%	6.9%	2.5%	5.00	4.85	+0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	80	340	72	44	8	100%	5.8	21.2%	12.9%	8.4%	2.5%	4.80	4.68	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	82	344	74	43	8	100%	5.8	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	2.5%	4.66	4.57	+0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	82	344	75	42	8	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	2.5%	4.59	4.55	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	80	339	74	42	9	100%	6.2	21.8%	12.4%	9.4%	2.5%	4.59	4.59	+0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	78	329	78	39	9	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	2.6%	4.48	4.40	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	74	314	74	38	9	100%	6.2	23.4%	12.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.53	+0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	70	295	68	36	9	100%	5.8	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.71	+0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	65	275	62	35	9	100%	5.9	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.91	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	36	152	28	26	4	100%	5.1	18.4%	17.1%	1.4%	2.5%	5.59	5.48	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	55	232	46	35	6	100%	5.0	19.7%	15.1%	4.7%	2.5%	5.26	5.10	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	66	279	57	38	7	100%	5.5	20.6%	13.7%	6.9%	2.5%	5.00	4.85	+0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	72	304	65	39	8	100%	5.5	21.2%	12.9%	8.4%	2.5%	4.80	4.68	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	75	317	68	39	8	100%	5.8	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	2.5%	4.66	4.57	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	76	321	70	40	8	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	2.5%	4.59	4.55	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	76	321	70	40	8	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.4%	9.4%	2.5%	4.59	4.59	+0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	74	312	74	37	8	100%	6.2	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	2.6%	4.48	4.40	+0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	71	300	70	36	8	100%	5.9	23.4%	12.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.53	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	66	279	64	34	8	100%	6.0	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.71	+0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	62	262	59	33	8	100%	6.2	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	127	729	3078	672	397	81	100%	5.7	21.8%	12.9%	9.0%	2.6%	4.76	4.33	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	184	109	22	100%	5.7	21.8%	12.9%	9.0%	2.6%	4.76	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		47	45	184	813	128	152	10	96%	3.9	15.8%	18.7%	-2.9%	1.2%	4.00	4.78	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	49	200	882	139	165	10	96%	3.9	15.8%	18.7%	-2.9%	1.2%	4.00	4.78	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeremy Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	17.4%	19.8%	2.6%	—	5.13	19.6%	4.4%	226	-0.78	—	—	—
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	87
Juan De La Cruz R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP	5.20	14.6%	17.7%	2.0%	.331	5.01	19.1%	-0.6%	136	-0.19	3.37	220	86
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	85
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	84
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	83
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	83
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	83
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	82
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	82
Wilmer Ortega R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP	4.95	14.7%	18.1%	1.5%	.292	4.85	17.2%	6.3%	64	-0.10	3.62	158	81
Maxwel Hernandez R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	20	SP	4.72	14.1%	14.2%	1.8%	.248	4.68	11.7%	-2.4%	71	-0.04	3.36	167	81
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	81
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	81
Wellington Aracena R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	18	SP	5.11	17.2%	15.8%	2.7%	.273	4.20	19.8%	3.0%	236	-0.91	3.20	304	81
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	80
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	80
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	80
Jol Concepcion R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP	4.86	14.5%	17.9%	1.3%	.219	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	154	80
Raudy Rivera R 2023 · 5.92 FIP	18	SP	5.92	19.2%	31.6%	0.8%	.321	5.34	22.7%	-0.8%	75	-0.58	3.65	111	80
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	73	21.4%	13.4%	1.01	4.86
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77