Jeremy Reyes — OGILVIE

Jeremy Reyes P Rome Emperors

+0.0 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2032

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.3%

IP63

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2032

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Braves	5	4	8	40	7	6	0	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
2024	18	A	Augusta GreenJackets	9	8	37	155	32	25	0	14.4%	19.6%	0.0%	1.96	4.37	+0.2
2025	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	18	18	76	328	84	49	2	19.0%	17.6%	0.6%	2.71	4.06	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Rome Emperors	2	2	9	42	9	5	1	—	—	—	8.00	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	ATL	11	11	63	266	58	33	7	21.6%	12.3%	2.6%	4.62	4.62	+0.3
2026 Total	20	MLB	ATL	—	—	72	308	67	38	8	21.6%	12.3%	2.5%	5.04	4.04	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	ATL	12	12	66	280	62	31	7	22.2%	11.2%	2.5%	4.48	4.41	+0.4
2028	22	MLB	ATL	13	13	70	294	68	30	7	23.2%	10.2%	2.5%	4.30	4.19	+0.7
2029	23	MLB	ATL	13	13	72	305	73	29	8	23.9%	9.5%	2.5%	4.14	4.03	+0.8
2030	24	MLB	ATL	13	13	74	312	76	28	8	24.5%	9.1%	2.5%	4.02	3.93	+1.0
2031	25	MLB	ATL	14	14	75	316	79	28	8	24.8%	8.9%	2.5%	3.92	3.86	+1.0
2032	26	MLB	ATL	14	14	75	316	79	28	8	25.0%	8.8%	2.5%	3.87	3.83	+1.1
2033	27	MLB	ATL	14	14	74	314	79	28	8	25.1%	8.9%	2.5%	3.85	3.84	+1.0
2034	28	MLB	ATL	13	13	73	309	77	28	8	25.0%	8.9%	2.5%	3.86	3.87	+1.0
2035	29	MLB	ATL	13	13	72	302	75	27	8	24.9%	9.0%	2.5%	3.89	3.92	+0.9
2036	30	MLB	ATL	13	13	70	293	72	27	8	24.7%	9.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.98	+0.8
2037	31	MLB	ATL	12	12	67	283	69	26	8	24.4%	9.2%	2.7%	4.01	4.05	+0.7
2038	32	MLB	ATL	12	12	64	272	66	25	8	24.2%	9.4%	2.8%	4.09	4.14	+0.6
2039	33	MLB	ATL	11	11	62	260	62	25	7	23.9%	9.5%	2.9%	4.18	4.24	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			34	32	130	565	100	99	3	17.8%	17.6%	0.5%	3.04	4.11	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			52	49	200	867	153	152	5	17.8%	17.6%	0.5%	3.04	4.11	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeremy Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.6%	12.3%	2.6%	—	4.20	23.1%	12.9%	208	-0.42	—	—	—
Jeffrey Rosa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	20	SW	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	91
Tanner McDougal R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	20	SW	4.94	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.82	22.1%	8.5%	221	-0.12	3.82	290	91
Luis Garcia R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.59	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.72	3.45	535	90
Jake Lyons R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	88
Noble Meyer R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	20	SW	4.30	18.7%	14.8%	1.7%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	139	88
Beck Way R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.77	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.24	2.40	395	88
Blake Rivera R 2027 · 3.84 FIP	21	SW	3.84	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.89	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.05	3.71	179	88
Jeisson Cabrera R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	194	88
Danny Watson R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	18.5%	15.6%	1.5%	.263	4.06	20.6%	12.7%	157	-0.25	3.56	215	88
Jared Lyons R 2028 · 4.46 FIP	22	SW	4.46	20.1%	15.3%	2.0%	.345	3.71	19.8%	9.0%	115	-0.75	3.28	169	88
Aaron Hernandez R 2028 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.77	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.05	4.61	194	87
Kohl Franklin R 2028 · 5.27 FIP	22	SW	5.27	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.64	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.37	5.27	174	87
Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	21	SW	4.85	16.0%	13.4%	2.6%	.305	5.51	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.66	4.85	108	86
Nick Garcia R 2028 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	86
Frank German R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	86
Gerson Moreno R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	20	SU	4.48	18.6%	14.8%	2.0%	.278	4.13	23.0%	9.1%	67	-0.35	3.66	349	86
Matt Keating R 2028 · 4.37 FIP	22	SW	4.37	23.3%	14.8%	2.5%	.346	4.44	22.2%	8.8%	118	+0.07	3.38	184	86
John Klein R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	17.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.287	3.72	19.4%	10.1%	207	-0.81	3.22	260	86
Jhonny Polanco R 2029 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	86
William Kempner R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.0	$9M	+$8M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$10M		$53M	+$44M