Raudy Rivera — OGILVIE

Raudy Rivera P ACL Guardians

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%23.0%

BB%20.8%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	11	10	37	170	48	43	1	91%	3.3	19.2%	31.6%	-12.4%	0.8%	4.42	5.92	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	11	10	37	170	48	43	1	91%	3.3	19.2%	31.6%	-12.4%	0.8%	4.42	5.92	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Blue	11	10	37	170	48	43	1	91%	3.3	28.2%	25.3%	2.9%	0.6%	4.42	4.35	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	0	17	96	26	20	2	0%	1.6	18.4%	26.0%	-7.6%	3.0%	8.31	6.47	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	0	17	96	26	20	2	0%	1.6	18.4%	26.0%	-7.6%	3.0%	8.31	6.47	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	11	0	17	96	26	20	2	0%	1.6	27.1%	20.8%	6.2%	2.1%	8.31	5.06	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	43	184	65	31	0	0%	1.5	24.6%	20.7%	3.9%	0.0%	2.72	3.65	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	43	184	65	31	0	0%	1.5	24.6%	20.7%	3.9%	0.0%	2.72	3.65	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	43	184	65	31	0	0%	1.5	35.3%	16.8%	18.5%	0.0%	2.72	2.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	0	14	74	24	17	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	28.7%	-6.7%	7.6%	8.79	9.03	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	0	14	74	24	17	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	28.7%	-6.7%	7.6%	8.79	9.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	CLE	13	0	14	74	24	17	4	0%	1.1	32.4%	23.0%	9.5%	5.4%	8.79	6.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	39	0	41	171	41	30	5	0%	1.0	23.9%	17.2%	6.7%	2.8%	5.32	5.15	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	19	0	20	84	20	15	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	17.2%	6.7%	2.8%	5.32	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	84	20	15	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	17.2%	6.7%	2.8%	5.32	4.77	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	150	20	0%	1.1	23.9%	17.2%	6.7%	2.8%	5.32	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		64	10	111	524	112	138	10	16%	1.7	21.3%	26.4%	-5.0%	1.9%	4.93	5.66	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	18	200	941	201	248	18	16%	1.7	21.3%	26.4%	-5.0%	1.9%	4.93	5.66	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raudy Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	23.0%	20.8%	2.8%	—	5.15	23.9%	6.7%	41	-0.55	—	—	—
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	91
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	85
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	85
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	85
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	85
Jonathan Teaney R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	22.5%	19.8%	1.9%	.328	5.65	16.4%	0.7%	55	+0.88	4.77	108	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	84
Adonis Villavicencio R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SU	4.65	21.5%	21.9%	1.1%	.316	3.93	18.0%	3.9%	90	-0.72	3.21	115	84
Samuel Valerio R 2023 · 5.07 FIP	21	SU	5.07	24.7%	22.3%	2.2%	.315	6.73	20.7%	-7.8%	18	+1.66	4.00	117	84
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	84
Yoel Espinal R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	22	SU	4.63	21.0%	21.4%	1.1%	.284	4.52	22.9%	5.6%	157	-0.11	3.86	231	83
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	83
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	83
Elison Joseph R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	21	SU	4.91	19.6%	20.3%	1.6%	.310	4.33	24.8%	6.9%	138	-0.58	3.32	217	83
Natanael Garabitos R 2022 · 5.08 FIP	21	SU	5.08	21.3%	20.1%	2.2%	.278	5.44	16.6%	-2.8%	116	+0.36	4.25	221	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.54	22.4%	7.7%	110	-0.08	4.45	161	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	23.6%	18.4%	1.07	5.45
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15