Samuel Valerio — OGILVIE

Samuel Valerio P ACL Brewers

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs ROK

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%23.2%

BB%19.5%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	11	4	25	116	31	13	1	36%	2.3	18.2%	14.0%	4.2%	1.2%	4.62	4.00	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	11	4	25	116	31	13	1	36%	2.3	26.7%	11.2%	15.5%	0.9%	4.62	2.71	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Blue	4	0	11	51	6	5	1	0%	2.7	8.0%	12.3%	-4.3%	2.7%	5.06	5.48	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals Blue	4	0	11	51	6	5	1	0%	2.7	11.8%	9.8%	2.0%	2.0%	5.06	4.60	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	35	186	46	38	5	11%	1.8	16.6%	24.9%	-8.3%	2.3%	10.90	6.13	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	2	35	186	46	38	5	11%	1.8	24.7%	20.4%	4.3%	2.7%	10.90	5.61	—
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	27	3	35	159	53	30	3	11%	1.3	24.7%	22.3%	2.4%	2.3%	5.35	5.07	—
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	27	3	35	159	53	30	3	11%	1.3	24.7%	22.3%	2.4%	2.3%	5.35	5.07	—
2023	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	27	3	35	159	53	30	3	11%	1.3	33.3%	18.9%	14.5%	1.9%	5.35	3.75	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	18	0	18	92	28	21	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	28.5%	-7.8%	3.2%	7.85	6.73	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	18	0	18	92	28	21	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	28.5%	-7.8%	3.2%	7.85	6.73	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	18	0	18	92	28	21	2	0%	1.0	30.4%	22.8%	7.6%	2.2%	7.85	4.90	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	MIL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	23.2%	19.5%	3.8%	3.0%	5.63	5.63	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	20	14	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	3.0%	5.33	5.21	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	0	9	38	9	6	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	3.0%	5.33	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	6	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	3.0%	5.33	4.83	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	140	23	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	3.0%	5.33	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		79	9	124	604	114	130	14	11%	1.6	18.9%	21.6%	-2.7%	2.3%	7.09	5.48	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	14	200	972	184	210	22	11%	1.6	18.9%	21.6%	-2.7%	2.3%	7.09	5.48	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Valerio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	23.2%	19.5%	3.0%	—	5.21	23.6%	7.1%	20	-0.42	—	—	—
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	83
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	82
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	81
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	81
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	80
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	80
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	80
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	80
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	80
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	79
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	79
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	79
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	78
Eduardo Herrera R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.9%	16.8%	2.5%	.397	4.26	21.8%	3.6%	75	-0.40	4.13	127	78
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	78
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	78
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	78
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	78
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	78