Samuel Valerio
P
ACL Brewers
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
ROK
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.63
FIP5.63
K%23.2%
BB%19.5%
K-BB%3.8%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 11 | 4 | 25 | 116 | 31 | 13 | 1 | 36% | 2.3 | 18.2% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 4.62 | 4.00 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 11 | 4 | 25 | 116 | 31 | 13 | 1 | 36% | 2.3 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 15.5% | 0.9% | 4.62 | 2.71 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Royals Blue | 4 | 0 | 11 | 51 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 2.7 | 8.0% | 12.3% | -4.3% | 2.7% | 5.06 | 5.48 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Royals Blue | 4 | 0 | 11 | 51 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 2.7 | 11.8% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 5.06 | 4.60 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 2 | 35 | 186 | 46 | 38 | 5 | 11% | 1.8 | 16.6% | 24.9% | -8.3% | 2.1% | 10.90 | 5.99 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 2 | 35 | 186 | 46 | 38 | 5 | 11% | 1.8 | 24.7% | 20.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 10.90 | 5.61 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 3 | 35 | 159 | 53 | 30 | 3 | 11% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 22.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 5.35 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 3 | 35 | 159 | 53 | 30 | 3 | 11% | 1.3 | 33.3% | 18.9% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 5.35 | 3.75 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 18 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 28 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 28.5% | -7.8% | 3.4% | 7.85 | 6.83 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 18 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 28 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 22.8% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 7.85 | 4.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 19.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.63 | 5.63 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 16.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 16.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 16.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 4.83 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 140 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 16.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 4.83 | -0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 9 | 124 | 604 | 114 | 130 | 13 | 11% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 21.6% | -2.7% | 2.2% | 7.09 | 5.43 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 14 | 200 | 972 | 184 | 210 | 21 | 11% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 21.6% | -2.7% | 2.2% | 7.09 | 5.43 | -1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Valerio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.63 | 23.2% | 19.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.21 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 20 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 82 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 82 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.57 | 21.4% | 15.3% | 4.2% | .247 | 4.99 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 115 | -0.58 | 4.95 | 183 | 82 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 81 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 81 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 80 |
| Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.08 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.37 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.71 | 4.10 | 148 | 80 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 80 |
| Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.91 | 24.7% | 25.1% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.39 | 26.1% | 13.2% | 142 | -2.52 | 2.92 | 237 | 80 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 79 |
| Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.34 | 21.4% | 23.1% | 2.0% | .255 | 4.16 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 99 | -1.18 | 3.88 | 231 | 79 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 184 | -0.36 | 3.34 | 339 | 79 |
| Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.24 | 21.3% | 14.7% | 3.8% | .302 | 3.84 | 22.2% | 5.5% | 65 | -1.40 | 2.53 | 114 | 79 |
| Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 78 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.03 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 103 | -0.52 | 2.09 | 150 | 78 |
| Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 78 |
| Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 127 | 78 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2023 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.56 | 22.9% | 16.8% | 2.3% | .397 | 4.37 | 21.8% | 3.6% | 75 | -0.19 | 4.32 | 127 | 78 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.67 | 19.0% | 15.4% | 4.0% | .343 | 10.98 | 17.5% | 0.6% | 14 | +5.31 | 5.32 | 117 | 78 |
| Indigo Diaz R 2023 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.04 | 23.7% | 16.2% | 3.4% | .355 | 4.98 | 16.6% | 3.8% | 76 | -0.06 | 1.78 | 202 | 78 |