Hunter Stratton

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX4 levels	42	45	3.02	2.72	21.7%	4.3%	1.0	K 20.9% · BB 4.4% · FIP 3.02
2025	28	MIX3 levels	47	56	3.70	3.39	22.2%	7.9%	0.8	K 19.6% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.59
2026	29	MIX2 levels	45	55	2.96	3.32	21.8%	10.7%	0.8	K 18.8% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.64
2027PROJ	30	MLBPIT	55	58	4.18	4.18	20.8%	8.3%	0.3
2028PROJ86% MLB	31	MLBPIT	45	47	4.33	4.43	20.3%	8.8%	0.1
2029PROJ89% MLB	32	MLBPIT	38	40	4.53	4.67	19.7%	9.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo71

K%21

xwOBA vs10

CompsMark Serrano (age 30) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%20.8%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p1720.6%

p2118.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	12	11	43	197	38	32	3	92%	3.6	13.1%	20.3%	-7.2%	2.1%	4.81	5.73	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	12	11	43	197	38	32	3	92%	3.6	19.3%	16.2%	3.0%	1.5%	4.81	4.47	—
2018	21	A MLE	West Virginia Power	22	20	102	441	82	52	8	91%	4.6	13.8%	13.9%	-0.2%	2.0%	4.16	4.80	—
2018	21	A RAW	West Virginia Power	22	20	102	441	82	52	8	91%	4.6	18.6%	11.8%	6.8%	1.8%	4.16	4.04	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	33	3	72	315	64	42	4	9%	2.2	15.6%	15.3%	0.3%	1.5%	4.25	4.54	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Bradenton Marauders	33	3	72	315	64	42	4	9%	2.2	20.3%	13.3%	7.0%	1.3%	4.25	3.79	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	49	205	70	25	3	0%	1.3	28.5%	13.1%	15.4%	1.6%	2.39	3.23	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	49	205	70	25	3	0%	1.3	34.1%	12.2%	22.0%	1.5%	2.39	2.57	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	47	1	63	282	82	39	8	2%	1.3	25.6%	14.5%	11.1%	3.1%	5.71	4.47	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	47	1	63	282	82	39	8	2%	1.3	29.1%	13.8%	15.2%	2.8%	5.71	4.00	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	2	68	289	84	34	9	4%	1.2	26.3%	11.5%	14.8%	2.9%	3.69	3.93	+0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	2	68	289	84	34	9	4%	1.2	29.1%	11.8%	17.3%	3.1%	3.69	3.85	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	0	45	184	40	8	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	4.4%	16.5%	2.1%	3.02	3.02	+0.8
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	42	0	45	184	40	8	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	4.4%	16.5%	2.1%	3.02	3.02	+0.8
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	42	0	45	184	40	8	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	4.3%	17.4%	1.6%	3.02	2.72	+1.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	56	239	53	19	5	0%	1.2	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	2.3%	3.70	3.59	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	56	239	53	19	5	0%	1.2	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	2.3%	3.70	3.59	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	56	239	53	19	5	0%	1.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.2%	2.1%	3.70	3.39	+0.8
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	234	51	25	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	10.3%	8.6%	1.5%	2.96	3.64	+0.6
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	234	51	25	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	10.3%	8.6%	1.5%	2.96	3.64	+0.6
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	234	51	25	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	1.3%	2.96	3.32	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			62	0	72	309	62	17	8	0%	1.2	20.1%	5.5%	14.6%	2.6%	3.88	3.53	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PIT	55	0	58	245	51	20	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.3%	12.4%	2.5%	4.18	4.18	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PIT	52	0	55	231	47	20	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.43	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	PIT	42	0	45	188	37	17	6	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.53	4.67	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PIT	45	0	47	198	40	17	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.43	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	PIT	38	0	40	169	33	16	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.53	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	0	159	676	135	50	19	0%	1.1	20.0%	7.4%	12.7%	2.8%	4.17	3.87	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	0	200	851	170	63	24	0%	1.1	20.0%	7.4%	12.7%	2.8%	4.17	3.87	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		341	37	552	2386	472	300	51	11%	1.6	19.8%	12.6%	7.2%	2.1%	3.93	4.19	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	13	200	864	171	109	18	11%	1.6	19.8%	12.6%	7.2%	2.1%	3.93	4.19	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 51 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.64 (+0.19)K% 21.9% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.92%	—	×0.860	18.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.42%	—	×0.900	10.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 36 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.08 (+0.30)K% 24.0% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.97%	—	×0.860	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.53%	—	×0.900	6.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.57%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 56 IPFIP 3.73 → 3.93 (+0.21)K% 30.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.58%	—	×0.860	26.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.81%	—	×0.900	11.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.89%	÷1.095	×1.100	2.91%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 63 IPFIP 3.95 → 4.47 (+0.52)K% 29.1% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.08%	—	×0.880	25.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.83%	—	×1.050	14.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.013	×1.100	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.95 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 24 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.84 (+0.33)K% 25.2% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.24%	—	×0.880	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.65%	—	×1.050	12.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.096	×1.100	1.95%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAltoona Curve · 25 IPFIP 1.61 → 2.61 (+1.00)K% 43.1% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.14%	—	×0.810	34.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.75%	—	×1.100	14.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷0.947	×1.200	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.61 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Bradenton Marauders · 72 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.54 (+0.77)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.32%	—	×0.770	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.150	15.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.069	×1.250	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AWest Virginia Power · 102 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.80 (+0.78)K% 18.6% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.59%	—	×0.740	13.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×1.180	13.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.181	×1.300	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Stratton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	20.8%	8.3%	2.5%	—	4.54	20.0%	11.1%	99	+0.36	—	—	—
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	80
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	75
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	75
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	73
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	73
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	73
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	73
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	73
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	72
Scott Dohmann R 2008 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	3.0%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	173	72
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	72
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	72
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	72
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	61	20.2%	7.7%	1.05	4.19
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*