Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 12 | 11 | 43 | 197 | 38 | 32 | 3 | 92% | 3.6 | 13.1% | 20.3% | -7.2% | 2.1% | 4.81 | 5.73 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 12 | 11 | 43 | 197 | 38 | 32 | 3 | 92% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 4.81 | 4.47 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | West Virginia Power | 22 | 20 | 102 | 441 | 82 | 52 | 8 | 91% | 4.6 | 13.8% | 13.9% | -0.2% | 1.7% | 4.16 | 4.65 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | West Virginia Power | 22 | 20 | 102 | 441 | 82 | 52 | 8 | 91% | 4.6 | 18.6% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 4.04 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 33 | 3 | 72 | 315 | 64 | 42 | 4 | 9% | 2.2 | 15.6% | 15.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 4.25 | 4.49 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 33 | 3 | 72 | 315 | 64 | 42 | 4 | 9% | 2.2 | 20.3% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 4.25 | 3.79 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 70 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.5% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 1.6% | 2.39 | 3.21 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 70 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.1% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 1.5% | 2.39 | 2.57 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 47 | 1 | 63 | 282 | 82 | 39 | 8 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 5.71 | 4.45 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 47 | 1 | 63 | 282 | 82 | 39 | 8 | 2% | 1.3 | 29.1% | 13.8% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 4.00 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 2 | 68 | 289 | 84 | 34 | 9 | 4% | 1.2 | 26.9% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 3.69 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 2 | 68 | 289 | 84 | 34 | 9 | 4% | 1.2 | 29.1% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 3.1% | 3.69 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 42 | 0 | 45 | 184 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 4.4% | 16.5% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 2.95 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 42 | 0 | 45 | 184 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 4.3% | 17.4% | 1.6% | 3.02 | 2.72 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 47 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 53 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 3.70 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 47 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 53 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50 | 0 | 59 | 264 | 59 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.7% | 13.7% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 3.97 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | ATL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | ATL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 41 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 103 | 449 | 99 | 45 | 9 | — | — | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 4.02 | 4.10 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 48 | 203 | 99 | 45 | 9 | — | — | 48.9% | 22.3% | 26.6% | 4.4% | 8.59 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 60 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 55 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 57 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 52 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 46 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 275 | 0 | 295 | 1250 | 259 | 92 | 37 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.90 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 175 | 62 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 346 | 37 | 557 | 2416 | 482 | 319 | 49 | 11% | 1.6 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 4.21 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 13 | 200 | 868 | 173 | 115 | 18 | 11% | 1.6 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Stratton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.50 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 188 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 79 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 79 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.85 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.50 | 1.74 | 468 | 79 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 79 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 79 |
| Mark Serrano R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.41 | 3.03 | 120 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 78 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 77 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 77 |
| Chris Martin R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 77 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 77 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 77 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.39 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 2.4% | .376 | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 60 | +2.77 | 3.39 | 162 | 76 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 76 |
| Matt Albers R 2029 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 76 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 76 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 1.19 | 4.33 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |