Enrique Segura
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
+0.5
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.5 · 2032
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%10.4%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.5peak
2032
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 13 | 8 | 43 | 179 | 39 | 22 | 1 | 14.8% | 15.4% | 0.6% | 2.32 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 11 | 10 | 37 | 170 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 13.2% | 21.3% | 3.1% | 6.87 | 6.41 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 16 | 15 | 75 | 332 | 73 | 38 | 9 | 15.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 5.76 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 18 | 92 | 393 | 95 | 32 | 6 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 4.61 | 4.11 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 2 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 73 | 36 | 10 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 89 | 375 | 79 | 39 | 12 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 110 | 462 | 100 | 43 | 13 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 127 | 49 | 16 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 148 | 55 | 18 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 30 | 167 | 704 | 164 | 58 | 20 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +2.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 32 | 32 | 174 | 734 | 173 | 61 | 20 | 23.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 32 | 32 | 176 | 745 | 176 | 62 | 21 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.07 | +2.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 32 | 32 | 174 | 734 | 173 | 61 | 21 | 23.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.10 | +2.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 31 | 31 | 170 | 718 | 168 | 60 | 21 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.15 | +2.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 30 | 165 | 696 | 161 | 59 | 20 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +2.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 29 | 29 | 159 | 672 | 154 | 58 | 20 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 146 | 57 | 20 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +1.6 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 27 | 27 | 146 | 616 | 138 | 55 | 20 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +1.4 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 138 | 585 | 129 | 54 | 19 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 53 | 252 | 1097 | 174 | 153 | 28 | 15.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.90 | 4.91 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 42 | 200 | 872 | 138 | 122 | 22 | 15.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.90 | 4.91 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Enrique Segura (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.24 | 22.5% | 13.7% | 396 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| David Perez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 93 |
| Mason Hickman R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 91 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.51 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .239 | 6.75 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.24 | 4.51 | 129 | 91 |
| Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 90 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.83 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .302 | 4.62 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.21 | 2.74 | 347 | 90 |
| Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | .297 | 4.22 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 139 | -0.68 | 4.01 | 231 | 90 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.81 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 69 | -0.48 | 3.51 | 157 | 90 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .335 | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.37 | 3.55 | 357 | 90 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .304 | 5.41 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.70 | 4.71 | 226 | 89 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 89 |
| Griffin Canning R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 89 |
| Ian Bedell R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 88 |
| Nick Davila R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.89 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.07 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | +0.18 | 3.46 | 341 | 88 |
| Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 88 |
| Austin Cates R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 88 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 88 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 88 |
| David Festa R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 17.0% | 302 | +0.08 | 3.66 | 405 | 88 |
| Micah Ottenbreit R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.31 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.04 | 14.7% | 10.3% | 24 | -1.27 | 3.04 | 118 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.3 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.4 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.5 | $24M | +$23M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +2.4 | $24M | +$19M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +2.2 | $22M | +$15M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +2.0 | $21M | +$10M |
| Totals | $25M | $134M | +$108M | ||