Enrique Segura — OGILVIE

Enrique Segura P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133123vR 114

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%17.6%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3045

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	13	8	43	179	39	22	1	62%	3.3	14.8%	15.4%	-0.5%	0.6%	2.32	4.11	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	13	8	43	179	39	22	1	62%	3.3	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	0.6%	2.32	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	11	10	37	170	33	29	4	91%	3.3	13.2%	21.3%	-8.1%	3.1%	6.87	6.40	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	11	10	37	170	33	29	4	91%	3.3	19.4%	17.1%	2.4%	2.4%	6.87	5.09	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	15.7%	13.8%	2.0%	3.2%	5.76	5.29	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	22.0%	11.4%	10.5%	2.7%	5.76	4.23	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	2.0%	4.61	4.08	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	24.2%	8.1%	16.0%	1.5%	4.61	2.93	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	14	14	51	228	45	37	12	100%	3.6	15.2%	18.7%	-3.5%	6.6%	7.41	7.79	-1.9
ROS	21	MLB	TEX	12	12	65	274	48	32	8	100%	5.4	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	2.9%	5.04	5.04	-0.3
ROS	21	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	2.9%	5.06	5.06	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	TEX	—	—	116	502	93	69	20	—	—	18.6%	13.7%	4.9%	4.0%	6.08	6.25	-1.2
2026 FULL	21	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	2.9%	5.06	4.68	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TEX	26	26	130	551	110	58	16	100%	5.0	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	2.8%	4.78	4.67	+1.1
2028	23	MLB	TEX	32	32	169	715	154	70	20	100%	5.3	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.56	4.43	+1.9
2029	24	MLB	TEX	31	31	175	739	166	69	20	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.4%	13.1%	2.8%	4.40	4.29	+2.3
2030	25	MLB	TEX	30	30	177	748	172	69	21	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.22	+2.4
2031	26	MLB	TEX	30	30	177	748	174	68	21	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.8%	4.23	4.19	+2.5
2032	27	MLB	TEX	29	29	174	737	171	68	21	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.8%	4.23	4.23	+2.4
2033	28	MLB	TEX	28	28	169	715	165	67	21	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.32	+2.1
2034	29	MLB	TEX	27	27	162	683	156	65	21	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.1%	4.38	4.45	+1.8
2035	30	MLB	TEX	25	25	152	642	144	63	21	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.9%	12.6%	3.3%	4.53	4.63	+1.4
2036	31	MLB	TEX	24	24	142	598	132	61	21	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.5%	4.71	4.83	+0.9
2037	32	MLB	TEX	22	22	131	554	120	59	21	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.7%	4.92	5.05	+0.5
2038	33	MLB	TEX	20	20	120	508	107	56	20	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.1%	10.1%	4.0%	5.15	5.30	+0.1
2039	34	MLB	TEX	18	18	110	462	95	54	20	100%	6.1	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	4.3%	5.41	5.58	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	TEX	13	13	64	270	54	28	8	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.80	4.69	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	TEX	23	23	124	524	113	51	15	100%	5.4	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.45	+1.4
2029	24	MLB	TEX	26	26	145	612	137	57	17	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.4%	13.1%	2.8%	4.42	4.31	+1.9
2030	25	MLB	TEX	27	27	157	663	152	61	19	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.24	+2.1
2031	26	MLB	TEX	27	27	162	684	159	63	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.21	+2.3
2032	27	MLB	TEX	27	27	162	684	159	63	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.25	+2.2
2033	28	MLB	TEX	26	26	158	667	154	62	20	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.34	+2.0
2034	29	MLB	TEX	26	26	154	650	149	62	20	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.1%	4.40	4.47	+1.7
2035	30	MLB	TEX	24	24	144	608	137	60	20	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.9%	12.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.65	+1.3
2036	31	MLB	TEX	22	22	135	570	126	58	20	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	+0.9
2037	32	MLB	TEX	21	21	125	528	114	56	20	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.8%	4.95	5.08	+0.5
2038	33	MLB	TEX	19	19	114	481	102	53	20	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.1%	10.1%	4.1%	5.18	5.33	+0.1
2039	34	MLB	TEX	16	16	99	418	86	48	18	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	4.4%	5.44	5.61	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			297	297	1743	7358	1640	724	235	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.8%	12.4%	3.2%	4.57	4.22	+24.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	188	83	27	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.8%	12.4%	3.2%	4.57	4.22	+2.8
Career	—			76	65	297	1302	202	192	40	86%	3.9	15.5%	14.8%	0.8%	3.1%	5.33	5.34	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—			51	44	200	877	136	129	27	86%	3.9	15.5%	14.8%	0.8%	3.1%	5.33	5.34	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Enrique Segura (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	17.6%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.44	21.4%	11.6%	475	-0.60	—	—	—
Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	15.8%	11.6%	2.9%	.275	5.18	16.0%	4.7%	191	+0.39	4.01	287	91
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	90
Miguel Almonte R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP-	3.94	18.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.300	4.40	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.46	3.02	247	88
Jeremy Lee R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	16.8%	11.5%	1.7%	.318	5.28	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.22	4.06	125	88
Will Sanders R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	88
Tommy Mace R 2028 · 5.24 FIP	23	SP	5.24	16.0%	12.1%	3.6%	.261	5.13	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.11	4.93	501	86
Brett Wichrowski R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	17.0%	11.2%	1.7%	.267	4.96	15.7%	4.7%	161	+0.96	3.95	250	86
Khristian Curtis R 2027 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	86
Michael Ross R 2028 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP-	5.05	16.3%	9.9%	3.8%	.275	5.83	12.5%	3.6%	64	+0.78	5.05	146	86
Dinelson Lamet R 2028 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	86
Max Gamboa R 2027 · 3.92 FIP	22	SP-	3.92	17.3%	9.5%	2.0%	.334	4.02	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.10	3.92	162	85
Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	85
Drew McDaniel R 2027 · 5.03 FIP	22	SP	5.03	14.1%	9.1%	3.6%	.323	5.65	18.6%	8.5%	122	+0.62	4.72	200	85
TJ Nichols R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.310	5.17	21.9%	14.5%	174	+1.21	3.96	245	85
Luke Gabrysh R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	13.8%	11.8%	2.1%	.271	5.55	21.8%	8.1%	59	+0.96	4.59	138	85
Cameron Wagoner R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	14.8%	9.6%	1.8%	.326	3.24	29.8%	23.6%	27	-0.83	3.24	127	85
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	85
Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP-	4.35	19.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.335	3.97	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.38	3.53	357	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP-	4.22	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	.293	5.23	15.4%	6.7%	157	+1.01	3.46	246	85
Will Rudy R 2027 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	15.2%	9.2%	3.0%	.299	5.34	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.69	4.65	194	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	149	22.0%	9.9%	1.21	4.58
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20