Enrique Segura — OGILVIE

Enrique Segura P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%17.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3045

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.2	$6M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$10M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$33M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	8	43	179	39	22	1	62%	3.3	14.8%	15.4%	-0.5%	0.7%	2.32	4.16	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	8	43	179	39	22	1	62%	3.3	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	0.6%	2.32	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	11	10	37	170	33	29	4	91%	3.3	13.2%	21.3%	-8.1%	3.2%	6.87	6.44	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	11	10	37	170	33	29	4	91%	3.3	13.2%	21.3%	-8.1%	3.2%	6.87	6.44	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	11	10	37	170	33	29	4	91%	3.3	19.4%	17.1%	2.4%	2.4%	6.87	5.09	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	15.7%	13.8%	2.0%	3.4%	5.76	5.37	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	15.7%	13.8%	2.0%	3.4%	5.76	5.37	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	22.0%	11.4%	10.5%	2.7%	5.76	4.23	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	2.1%	4.61	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	2.1%	4.61	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	24.2%	8.1%	16.0%	1.5%	4.61	2.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	20	75	341	73	55	17	91%	3.4	16.5%	18.5%	-2.1%	6.2%	6.57	7.48	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	20	75	341	73	55	17	91%	3.4	16.5%	18.5%	-2.1%	6.2%	6.57	7.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	TEX	22	20	75	341	73	55	17	91%	3.4	21.4%	16.1%	5.3%	5.0%	6.57	6.07	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	8	32	6	4	1	100%	7.6	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	2.9%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	83	373	79	59	18	—	—	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	4.8%	6.44	7.26	-2.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	26	26	130	551	110	60	16	100%	5.0	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.73	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	32	32	169	715	154	72	20	100%	5.3	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.61	4.48	+0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	31	31	175	739	166	71	21	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.33	+1.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	30	30	177	748	172	70	21	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.25	+1.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	30	30	177	748	174	70	21	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.8%	4.27	4.23	+1.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	29	29	174	737	171	69	21	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.26	+1.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	28	28	169	715	165	68	21	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.35	+1.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	27	27	162	683	156	67	21	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.48	+0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	25	25	152	642	144	65	21	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.3%	4.56	4.66	+0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	TEX	24	24	142	598	132	62	21	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.5%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	131	554	120	60	21	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	3.8%	4.95	5.09	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	64	270	54	29	8	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.97	4.85	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	23	23	124	524	113	53	16	100%	5.4	21.5%	10.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.60	+0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	145	612	137	59	18	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.44	+1.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	157	663	152	62	20	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.36	+1.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	162	684	159	64	20	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	3.0%	4.38	4.34	+1.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	27	27	162	684	159	64	21	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.39	4.38	+1.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	158	667	154	64	21	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.5%	13.5%	3.2%	4.44	4.47	+1.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	26	26	154	650	149	64	22	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+0.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	24	24	144	608	137	61	21	100%	6.0	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.5%	4.70	4.80	+0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	TEX	22	22	135	570	126	59	21	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.8%	4.88	5.00	+0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	125	528	114	57	21	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	4.0%	5.10	5.24	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		262	262	1529	6456	1452	635	210	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.3%	4.61	4.23	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	83	27	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.3%	4.61	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		84	71	321	1415	224	213	47	85%	3.8	15.8%	15.0%	0.8%	3.3%	5.29	5.50	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	44	200	881	139	132	29	85%	3.8	15.8%	15.0%	0.8%	3.3%	5.29	5.50	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Enrique Segura (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	17.6%	12.1%	2.9%	—	4.49	21.4%	11.3%	475	-0.62	—	—	—
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	91
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	86
Max Gamboa R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.00	3.99	162	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	85
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	85
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	84
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	83
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	83
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	83
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Luis Ortiz R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP	4.48	16.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.254	5.07	15.5%	7.7%	166	+0.59	2.63	575	83
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.2	154	22.2%	10.0%	1.16	4.53
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01