Enrique Segura

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#663ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	16	15	75	5.76	4.23	22.0%	11.4%	—	K 15.7% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.37
2025	20	MIX2 levels	22	18	92	4.61	2.93	24.2%	8.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.12
2026	21	A+TEX	22	20	75	6.57	6.29	21.4%	16.1%	—	K 16.5% · BB 18.5% · FIP 7.48
2027PROJ	22	MLBTEX	—	—	0	5.96	5.96	17.4%	15.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTEX	9	9	48	5.72	5.59	19.7%	13.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBTEX	13	13	75	5.41	5.26	21.1%	12.1%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsMichael YaSenka (age 23) · Khristian Curtis (age 22) · J.P. Massey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%17.4%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	13	8	43	179	39	22	1	62%	3.3	14.8%	15.4%	-0.5%	0.7%	2.32	4.16	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	13	8	43	179	39	22	1	62%	3.3	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	0.6%	2.32	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	11	10	37	170	33	29	4	91%	3.3	13.2%	21.3%	-8.1%	3.2%	6.87	6.44	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	11	10	37	170	33	29	4	91%	3.3	19.4%	17.1%	2.4%	2.4%	6.87	5.09	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	15.7%	13.8%	2.0%	3.4%	5.76	5.37	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	15.7%	13.8%	2.0%	3.4%	5.76	5.37	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	75	332	73	38	9	94%	4.7	22.0%	11.4%	10.5%	2.7%	5.76	4.23	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	2.1%	4.61	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	2.1%	4.61	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	92	393	95	32	6	82%	4.2	24.2%	8.1%	16.0%	1.5%	4.61	2.93	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	20	75	341	73	55	17	91%	3.4	16.5%	18.5%	-2.1%	6.2%	6.57	7.48	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	20	75	341	73	55	17	91%	3.4	16.5%	18.5%	-2.1%	6.2%	6.57	7.48	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	20	75	341	73	55	17	91%	3.4	21.4%	16.1%	5.3%	5.0%	6.57	6.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	15.5%	1.9%	3.6%	5.96	5.96	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	97	408	80	55	14	100%	5.4	19.7%	13.4%	6.2%	3.5%	5.58	5.45	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	107	452	95	55	16	100%	5.6	21.1%	12.1%	8.9%	3.4%	5.27	5.12	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	115	486	106	55	17	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.3%	10.6%	3.4%	5.05	4.93	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	115	484	108	54	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.93	4.87	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	111	470	105	53	16	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.4%	4.91	4.90	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	106	448	100	51	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.5%	4.96	4.99	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	99	418	92	49	15	100%	6.2	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	3.7%	5.06	5.12	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	90	381	82	45	15	100%	6.0	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	3.9%	5.20	5.30	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	48	203	40	27	8	100%	5.3	19.7%	13.4%	6.2%	3.8%	5.72	5.59	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	75	317	67	38	12	100%	5.8	21.1%	12.1%	8.9%	3.7%	5.41	5.26	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	93	393	86	44	14	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.3%	10.6%	3.7%	5.19	5.07	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	100	422	94	47	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.6%	5.07	5.01	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	101	426	95	48	16	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	3.7%	5.05	5.04	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	98	414	92	47	16	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.8%	5.11	5.14	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	92	388	85	45	15	100%	6.1	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	4.0%	5.21	5.27	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	84	355	77	42	15	100%	6.0	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	4.2%	5.36	5.46	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	117	691	2918	636	339	111	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	3.8%	5.23	4.82	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	98	32	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.6%	10.2%	3.8%	5.23	4.82	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		84	71	321	1415	224	213	47	85%	3.8	15.8%	15.0%	0.8%	3.3%	5.29	5.50	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	44	200	881	139	132	29	85%	3.8	15.8%	15.0%	0.8%	3.3%	5.29	5.50	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 75 IPFIP 6.07 → 7.48 (+1.41)K% 21.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.41%	—	×0.770	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.13%	—	×1.150	18.55%
HR / BF /BF	4.99%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.07 → 7.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 83 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.12 (+0.93)K% 22.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.740	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.66%	—	×1.180	10.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.037	×1.300	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 8 IPFIP 0.33 → 1.42 (+1.09)K% 37.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.14%	—	×0.680	25.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.86%	—	×1.250	3.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.302	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 0.33 → 1.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 43 IPFIP 4.95 → 6.06 (+1.11)K% 21.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.65%	—	×0.740	16.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.40%	—	×1.180	15.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.61%	÷1.115	×1.300	4.21%

Result: FIP 4.95 → 6.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 32 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.39 (+1.29)K% 22.5% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.46%	—	×0.680	15.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.250	10.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷0.924	×1.400	2.20%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Phillies · 37 IPFIP 4.91 → 6.44 (+1.53)K% 19.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.41%	—	×0.680	13.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.06%	—	×1.250	21.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.028	×1.400	3.20%

Result: FIP 4.91 → 6.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Phillies Red · 43 IPFIP 3.12 → 4.16 (+1.03)K% 21.8% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.79%	—	×0.680	14.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.29%	—	×1.250	15.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.187	×1.400	0.66%

Result: FIP 3.12 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Enrique Segura (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.15	20.9%	8.7%	319	-0.81	—	—	—
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	90
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	88
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	86
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	85
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.70	20.0%	10.3%	184	-1.17	3.53	358	85
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	85
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	85
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	84
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	84
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	84
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	84
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	83
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	83
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	103	21.3%	12.1%	1.37	5.19
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37