Chad Dallas
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 206 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
K%20.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 21 | 21 | 88 | 405 | 86 | 51 | 13 | 100% | 4.2 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 4.60 | 5.99 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 21 | 21 | 88 | 405 | 86 | 51 | 13 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 123 | 516 | 144 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 3.65 | 4.55 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 123 | 516 | 144 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.9% | 9.5% | 18.4% | 3.1% | 3.65 | 3.64 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 67 | 301 | 60 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 6.21 | 5.11 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 67 | 301 | 60 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 6.21 | 4.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 16 | 10 | 54 | 232 | 51 | 20 | 3 | 62% | 3.4 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 3.31 | 3.40 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 31 | 132 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 86 | 364 | 78 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 21.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 2.0% | 3.82 | 3.88 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 36 | 152 | 78 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 51.4% | 21.2% | 30.2% | 4.8% | 9.10 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 53 | 223 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 51 | 216 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 22 | 135 | 568 | 117 | 54 | 18 | 92% | 5.6 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.31 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 843 | 174 | 80 | 27 | 92% | 5.6 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 76 | 70 | 332 | 1454 | 275 | 161 | 52 | 92% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.88 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 42 | 200 | 875 | 165 | 97 | 32 | 92% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Dallas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.74 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 104 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 82 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 79 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 79 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .362 | 5.50 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 113 | +1.94 | 2.78 | 181 | 78 |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 77 |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 75 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.95 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 287 | 75 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 74 |
| Griffin Canning R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 74 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 74 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 74 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 73 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 73 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .264 | 3.82 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.30 | 3.12 | 187 | 73 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 73 |
| Jackson Finley R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 132 | 72 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .275 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 123 | -0.00 | 3.11 | 159 | 72 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 254 | 72 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 1.28 | 4.71 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |