Chad Dallas — OGILVIE

Chad Dallas P Buffalo Bisons

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 206 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%18.1%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	21	21	88	405	86	51	13	100%	4.2	16.4%	14.5%	1.9%	4.2%	4.60	5.87	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	21	21	88	405	86	51	13	100%	4.2	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.80	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	516	144	49	16	100%	5.4	22.3%	10.6%	11.8%	3.7%	3.65	4.57	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	516	144	49	16	100%	5.4	22.3%	10.6%	11.8%	3.7%	3.65	4.57	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	123	516	144	49	16	100%	5.4	27.9%	9.5%	18.4%	3.1%	3.65	3.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	67	301	60	24	11	100%	4.2	14.8%	7.7%	7.1%	4.0%	6.21	5.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	67	301	60	24	11	100%	4.2	14.8%	7.7%	7.1%	4.0%	6.21	5.00	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	67	301	60	24	11	100%	4.2	19.9%	8.0%	12.0%	3.7%	6.21	4.53	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	10	47	10	6	1	0%	2.6	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.1%	6.10	4.16	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	29	12	78	341	80	32	6	41%	2.7	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	1.9%	3.56	3.47	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	29	12	78	341	80	32	6	41%	2.7	19.8%	8.0%	11.8%	1.9%	3.56	3.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	TOR	25	12	68	294	70	26	5	48%	2.7	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	1.7%	3.18	3.14	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	TOR	4	0	10	47	10	6	1	0%	2.6	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.1%	6.10	4.09	+0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TOR	4	0	10	47	10	6	1	0%	2.6	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.1%	6.10	4.09	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TOR	4	0	5	19	3	2	1	0%	1.1	18.1%	8.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	8.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	83	360	83	34	7	—	—	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	1.8%	3.61	3.52	+1.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	15	63	83	34	7	—	—	133.1%	53.7%	79.4%	10.5%	20.14	4.45	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	319	60	30	10	100%	5.8	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.84	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	73	309	59	29	10	100%	6.1	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.85	4.89	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	70	295	56	29	10	100%	5.8	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	3.4%	4.92	4.99	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	66	277	52	28	10	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.05	5.15	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	72	304	57	29	10	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.84	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	56	28	10	100%	5.8	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.85	4.89	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	53	27	10	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	3.4%	4.92	4.99	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	62	262	49	26	9	100%	6.2	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.05	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	45	285	1206	228	118	40	85%	5.4	18.9%	9.8%	9.2%	3.3%	4.94	4.56	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	32	200	847	160	83	28	84%	5.3	18.9%	9.8%	9.2%	3.3%	4.94	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		89	72	356	1563	293	163	54	81%	4.0	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	3.5%	4.34	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	877	165	92	31	81%	4.0	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	3.5%	4.34	4.75	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chad Dallas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	17.7%	8.8%	3.3%	—	4.90	18.9%	9.3%	219	+0.01	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	81
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	78
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	77
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	77
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	77
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	77
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	77
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	76
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	76
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	76
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	18.7%	9.5%	1.30	4.91
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78