Chad Dallas
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 206 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%11.3%
IP77
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 21 | 21 | 88 | 405 | 86 | 51 | 13 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 4.2% | 4.60 | 5.89 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 23 | 23 | 123 | 516 | 144 | 49 | 16 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 3.65 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 16 | 16 | 67 | 301 | 60 | 24 | 11 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 6.21 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 3 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.87 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 66 | 30 | 11 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 87 | 362 | 75 | 32 | 11 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.15 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 67 | 30 | 10 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.68 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 66 | 30 | 10 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 65 | 29 | 10 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.70 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 63 | 28 | 10 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 60 | 28 | 10 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 57 | 27 | 10 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 53 | 26 | 9 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 50 | 26 | 9 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 46 | 25 | 9 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 42 | 24 | 9 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.30 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 63 | 288 | 1261 | 238 | 142 | 48 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 4.43 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 44 | 200 | 875 | 165 | 98 | 33 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 4.43 | 5.03 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Dallas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.69 | 20.9% | 11.6% | 224 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 90 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 90 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 89 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 89 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 88 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 88 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 88 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 88 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 87 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 199 | 86 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.46 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.67 | 3.75 | 154 | 86 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 86 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 86 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.