Juan De La Cruz — OGILVIE

Juan De La Cruz P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%20.4%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	11	10	41	179	28	18	3	91%	3.7	10.6%	12.6%	-1.9%	2.3%	4.17	5.06	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	11	10	41	179	28	18	3	91%	3.7	15.6%	10.1%	5.6%	1.7%	4.17	4.00	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	250	50	38	3	93%	3.7	14.6%	17.7%	-3.1%	2.0%	4.13	5.20	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	250	50	38	3	93%	3.7	14.6%	17.7%	-3.1%	2.0%	4.13	5.20	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	52	250	50	38	3	93%	3.7	20.0%	15.2%	4.8%	1.2%	4.13	4.11	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	62	264	58	34	3	88%	3.6	15.3%	15.8%	-0.5%	1.7%	2.61	4.74	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	62	264	58	34	3	88%	3.6	15.3%	15.8%	-0.5%	1.7%	2.61	4.74	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	62	264	58	34	3	88%	3.6	22.0%	12.9%	9.1%	1.1%	2.61	3.50	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	30	136	43	30	1	54%	2.3	27.1%	20.2%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.37	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	30	136	43	30	1	54%	2.3	27.1%	20.2%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.37	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	30	136	43	30	1	54%	2.3	31.6%	22.1%	9.6%	0.7%	5.40	3.67	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	38	0	50	260	69	54	6	0%	1.3	20.0%	24.2%	-4.2%	2.9%	9.48	6.09	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	38	0	50	260	69	54	6	0%	1.3	20.0%	24.2%	-4.2%	2.9%	9.48	6.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	MIA	19	0	25	134	38	28	3	0%	1.3	28.4%	20.9%	7.5%	2.2%	8.76	4.58	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	MIA	19	0	26	126	31	26	3	0%	1.4	24.6%	20.6%	4.0%	2.4%	10.17	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	56	0	59	247	54	34	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.9%	7.7%	2.8%	5.10	4.97	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	58	0	61	257	58	32	7	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.3%	10.2%	2.8%	4.82	4.68	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	59	0	62	263	61	30	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.48	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	266	63	28	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.6%	12.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.36	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	266	63	28	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.34	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	26	17	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.9%	7.7%	2.8%	5.10	4.97	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	42	0	44	186	42	23	5	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.3%	10.2%	2.8%	4.82	4.68	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	51	25	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.48	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	53	0	56	236	55	25	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.6%	12.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.36	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	55	0	58	245	58	26	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		227	0	238	1006	232	116	28	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.62	4.13	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	97	23	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.62	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		93	45	236	1089	185	199	21	48%	2.5	16.9%	18.3%	-1.3%	1.9%	5.04	5.05	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	38	200	924	157	169	18	48%	2.5	16.9%	18.3%	-1.3%	1.9%	5.04	5.05	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan De La Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	20.4%	16.3%	2.9%	—	4.70	22.4%	9.9%	182	-0.70	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	87
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	86
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	82
Cre Finfrock R 2018 · 4.27 FIP	22	SW	4.27	17.9%	16.5%	1.1%	.286	4.63	23.0%	11.3%	38	+0.36	4.27	103	82
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	81
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	81
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	81
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	80
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	80
Jose Romero R 2022 · 4.29 FIP	21	SW	4.29	22.7%	17.2%	1.7%	.200	4.34	21.6%	3.9%	100	+0.05	3.71	163	80
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	80
Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	19.9%	18.5%	0.9%	.300	4.43	22.7%	10.8%	249	+0.19	2.67	299	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	79
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	79
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	78
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	78
Matthew Swain R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	21	SW	4.37	15.9%	13.9%	1.6%	.362	5.19	20.6%	7.5%	115	+0.82	4.37	175	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	55	22.7%	12.0%	1.08	4.72
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10