Juan De La Cruz
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
+0.1
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%11.6%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 11 | 10 | 41 | 179 | 28 | 18 | 3 | 10.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 14 | 13 | 52 | 250 | 50 | 38 | 3 | 14.6% | 17.7% | 1.9% | 4.13 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 17 | 15 | 62 | 264 | 58 | 34 | 3 | 15.3% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 2.61 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 13 | 7 | 30 | 136 | 43 | 30 | 1 | 27.1% | 20.2% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 3.37 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIA | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 33 | 138 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 23.1% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 24.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 45 | 187 | 834 | 135 | 138 | 14 | 16.1% | 16.5% | 1.7% | 3.81 | 4.74 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 48 | 200 | 894 | 145 | 148 | 15 | 16.1% | 16.5% | 1.7% | 3.81 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan De La Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.17 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 102 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 92 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 91 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 91 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 90 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 90 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 89 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 89 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.15 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.17 | 3.98 | 198 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 89 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 88 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 88 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 88 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 87 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 87 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 87 |
| Justin Meis R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.02 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.09 | 3.64 | 341 | 87 |
| Max Gieg R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.14 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .317 | 4.64 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.50 | 3.95 | 108 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$4M | ||