Nestor Lorant — OGILVIE

Nestor Lorant P Dayton Dragons

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%15.1%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	4	20	88	20	6	1	67%	3.4	15.5%	8.5%	6.9%	1.6%	4.43	3.75	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	6	4	20	88	20	6	1	67%	3.4	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	1.1%	4.43	2.66	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	9	9	33	132	45	12	1	100%	3.7	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	1.0%	2.70	3.11	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	9	9	33	132	45	12	1	100%	3.7	34.1%	9.1%	25.0%	0.8%	2.70	1.87	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	2	33	142	47	15	2	18%	3.0	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	2.0%	4.05	3.99	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	2	33	142	47	15	2	18%	3.0	33.1%	10.6%	22.5%	1.4%	4.05	2.41	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	43%	2.7	18.7%	18.2%	0.4%	3.1%	5.02	5.53	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	43%	2.7	18.7%	18.2%	0.4%	3.1%	5.02	5.53	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	43%	2.7	26.1%	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	5.02	4.19	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	22.3%	7.2%	15.1%	1.1%	1.68	2.73	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	22.3%	7.2%	15.1%	1.1%	1.68	2.73	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	29.7%	6.5%	23.2%	0.8%	1.68	1.99	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	15.2%	9.7%	5.5%	2.6%	5.79	4.50	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	15.2%	9.7%	5.5%	2.6%	5.79	4.50	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	2.4%	5.79	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.8%	2.71	4.42	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.8%	2.71	4.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CIN	8	7	41	170	57	20	6	88%	5.1	33.5%	11.8%	21.8%	3.5%	3.10	3.70	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CIN	6	4	22	89	30	6	2	67%	3.7	33.7%	6.7%	27.0%	2.2%	2.01	2.34	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	6	26	4	3	1	100%	6.1	15.1%	10.5%	4.6%	2.8%	5.07	5.07	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	69	285	91	29	9	—	—	31.9%	10.1%	21.8%	3.1%	2.92	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	89	377	63	38	11	100%	6.0	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	2.8%	4.93	4.89	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	89	377	65	37	11	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.8%	7.5%	2.8%	4.83	4.80	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	88	372	65	36	11	100%	5.9	17.6%	9.8%	7.8%	2.9%	4.81	4.81	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	85	361	63	36	11	100%	6.1	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.85	4.88	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	82	345	60	35	11	100%	5.8	17.3%	10.1%	7.2%	3.1%	4.95	5.01	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	77	324	61	31	11	100%	5.9	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	3.3%	4.93	4.92	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	38	160	27	16	5	100%	6.3	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	3.0%	5.05	5.01	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	43	25	8	100%	5.9	17.4%	9.8%	7.5%	3.0%	4.95	4.92	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	68	287	51	28	9	100%	6.2	17.6%	9.8%	7.8%	3.1%	4.94	4.94	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	72	304	53	30	10	100%	6.0	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	3.2%	4.98	5.01	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	52	30	10	100%	5.9	17.3%	10.1%	7.2%	3.4%	5.09	5.15	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	55	28	10	100%	5.8	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	3.6%	5.08	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	378	1596	282	158	52	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.2%	5.01	4.64	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	84	28	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.2%	5.01	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		103	63	382	1615	327	172	37	61%	3.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	33	200	846	171	90	19	61%	3.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.99	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Lorant (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	15.1%	10.5%	2.8%	—	4.83	17.2%	7.3%	267	-0.24	—	—	—
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	88
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	83
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	83
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	82
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	82
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	82
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	81
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	81
Zach Lewis R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP-	4.14	14.9%	9.4%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	266	81
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	17.3%	10.0%	1.14	4.90
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32