Nestor Lorant

P Dayton Dragons

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#939ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	8	96	1.68	1.99	29.7%	6.5%	—	K 22.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 2.73
2025	23	A+CIN	24	23	98	5.79	3.90	19.7%	8.4%	—	K 15.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.50
2026	24	MIX2 levels	14	11	63	2.71	3.23	33.6%	10.0%	—	K 26.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	25	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.90	4.90	19.8%	11.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCIN	5	5	31	4.95	4.94	20.2%	10.9%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCIN	7	7	41	4.93	4.94	20.4%	10.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsCarlos Sano (age 25) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%19.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	4	20	88	20	6	1	67%	3.4	15.5%	8.5%	6.9%	1.6%	4.43	3.75	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	6	4	20	88	20	6	1	67%	3.4	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	1.1%	4.43	2.66	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	9	9	33	132	45	12	1	100%	3.7	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	1.0%	2.70	3.11	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	9	9	33	132	45	12	1	100%	3.7	34.1%	9.1%	25.0%	0.8%	2.70	1.87	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	2	33	142	47	15	2	18%	3.0	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	2.0%	4.05	3.99	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	2	33	142	47	15	2	18%	3.0	33.1%	10.6%	22.5%	1.4%	4.05	2.41	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	43%	2.7	18.7%	18.2%	0.4%	3.1%	5.02	5.53	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	43%	2.7	26.1%	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	5.02	4.19	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	22.3%	7.2%	15.1%	1.1%	1.68	2.73	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	22.3%	7.2%	15.1%	1.1%	1.68	2.73	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	32%	3.9	29.7%	6.5%	23.2%	0.8%	1.68	1.99	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	15.2%	9.7%	5.5%	2.6%	5.79	4.50	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	15.2%	9.7%	5.5%	2.6%	5.79	4.50	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	96%	4.1	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	2.4%	5.79	3.90	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.8%	2.71	4.42	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	26.3%	11.4%	14.9%	3.8%	2.71	4.42	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	63	259	87	26	8	79%	4.5	33.6%	10.0%	23.6%	3.1%	2.71	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	73	307	62	33	9	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.81	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	278	57	30	9	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.7%	9.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.81	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	260	53	28	8	100%	6.2	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	3.2%	4.83	4.86	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	57	239	48	26	8	100%	6.3	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	3.3%	4.91	4.98	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	56	237	52	25	8	100%	6.2	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.5%	4.90	4.89	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	31	131	27	14	4	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.9%	9.4%	3.3%	4.95	4.94	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	41	173	35	19	6	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.93	4.94	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	39	21	7	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	3.4%	4.97	5.00	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	39	21	7	100%	5.8	20.1%	10.9%	9.2%	3.6%	5.06	5.13	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	48	203	44	21	8	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.8%	5.05	5.04	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	213	900	185	96	31	100%	6.1	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.5%	5.00	4.64	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	90	29	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	3.5%	5.00	4.64	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		103	63	382	1615	327	172	37	61%	3.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.99	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	33	200	846	171	90	19	61%	3.7	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.99	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 41 IPFIP 3.70 → 5.06 (+1.36)K% 33.5% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.53%	—	×0.770	25.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.150	13.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.41%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 22 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.21 (+0.87)K% 33.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.71%	—	×0.810	27.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.74%	—	×1.100	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 98 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.50 (+0.69)K% 19.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.70%	—	×0.770	15.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.44%	—	×1.150	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.124	×1.250	2.65%

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 88 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.73 (+0.91)K% 30.2% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.18%	—	×0.740	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.10%	—	×1.180	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.078	×1.300	1.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 9 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.93 (+0.69)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.770	19.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.150	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.285	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 21 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.64 (+1.36)K% 29.2% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.21%	—	×0.740	21.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.10%	—	×1.180	22.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.060	×1.300	2.75%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 17 IPFIP 3.99 → 5.39 (+1.40)K% 22.4% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.37%	—	×0.680	15.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.250	13.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.059	×1.400	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.99 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Reds · 33 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.99 (+1.57)K% 33.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.10%	—	×0.680	22.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.56%	—	×1.250	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷0.970	×1.400	2.03%

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Lorant (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	19.8%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.83	20.3%	9.5%	200	-0.07	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	88
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	83
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	82
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	81
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	80
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	80
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	80
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	79
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	79
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	64	20.4%	10.8%	1.23	4.86
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*