Nestor Lorant — OGILVIE

Nestor Lorant P Dayton Dragons

+0.4 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.4%

IP89

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2028

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Reds	6	4	20	88	20	6	1	15.5%	8.5%	1.6%	4.43	3.75	+0.3
2021	19	ROK	DSL Reds	9	9	33	132	45	12	1	23.2%	11.4%	0.9%	2.70	3.09	+0.7
2022	20	ROK	ACL Reds	11	2	33	142	47	15	2	22.5%	13.2%	2.1%	4.05	4.00	+0.4
2023	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	14	6	38	165	43	25	4	18.7%	18.2%	3.0%	5.02	5.49	-0.2
2024	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	25	8	96	367	109	24	3	22.3%	7.2%	1.1%	1.68	2.74	+2.8
2025	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	24	23	98	462	91	39	11	15.2%	9.7%	2.6%	5.79	4.47	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A+	Dayton Dragons	2	2	9	41	12	2	2	—	—	—	6.00	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	CIN	16	16	89	375	74	35	10	19.7%	9.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.52	+0.7
2026 Total	24	MLB	CIN	—	—	98	416	86	37	12	20.7%	8.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.10	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	CIN	19	19	102	431	88	39	12	20.5%	8.9%	2.8%	4.44	4.41	+1.0
2028	26	MLB	CIN	20	20	109	460	96	41	13	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	4.39	4.37	+1.1
2029	27	MLB	CIN	20	20	112	474	99	42	13	21.0%	8.8%	2.8%	4.37	4.37	+1.2
2030	28	MLB	CIN	20	20	112	475	100	42	14	21.0%	8.8%	2.9%	4.38	4.39	+1.2
2031	29	MLB	CIN	20	20	110	464	97	41	13	20.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.41	4.44	+1.1
2032	30	MLB	CIN	19	19	107	451	93	40	13	20.6%	9.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.50	+1.0
2033	31	MLB	CIN	19	19	103	435	89	40	13	20.4%	9.1%	3.0%	4.53	4.57	+0.9
2034	32	MLB	CIN	18	18	99	418	84	39	13	20.1%	9.2%	3.1%	4.61	4.66	+0.7
2035	33	MLB	CIN	17	17	94	399	79	38	13	19.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.76	+0.5
2036	34	MLB	CIN	16	16	90	379	74	36	13	19.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.80	4.87	+0.3
2037	35	MLB	CIN	15	15	84	357	68	35	12	19.1%	9.8%	3.4%	4.91	4.99	+0.2
2038	36	MLB	CIN	14	14	79	334	69	31	12	20.6%	9.3%	3.5%	4.88	4.85	+0.2
2039	37	MLB	CIN	13	13	73	309	62	30	11	20.2%	9.6%	3.7%	4.95	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			91	54	328	1397	271	145	29	19.4%	10.3%	2.0%	3.92	3.90	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			55	33	200	852	165	88	18	19.4%	10.3%	2.0%	3.92	3.90	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Lorant (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	19.7%	9.4%	2.8%	—	4.38	20.8%	12.0%	323	-0.14	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	96
Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	93
Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	16.3%	8.9%	2.8%	.277	3.52	21.8%	12.7%	44	-0.88	3.52	128	93
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	93
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	93
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	93
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	93
Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	92
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	92
Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	91
Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP-	4.03	19.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.256	3.80	18.2%	4.1%	73	-0.23	3.80	154	90
Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	3.86	20.2%	11.2%	203	-0.22	3.77	295	90
Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP-	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.05	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.27	3.05	176	90
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	90
Corey Baker R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	5.02	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.25	3.08	267	89
Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP	25	SP-	5.09	15.2%	10.8%	3.5%	.274	4.93	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.16	4.10	218	89
Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP-	4.80	15.0%	8.6%	3.4%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.80	106	88
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	24	SP-	4.52	18.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.271	5.93	20.6%	7.6%	119	+1.41	4.52	358	88
Tim Atherton R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	88
Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$4M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$3M	+$1M
Totals		$7M		$41M	+$34M