Alex Amalfi — OGILVIE

Alex Amalfi P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%21.9%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	8	45	5	8	2	0%	1.3	11.1%	17.8%	-6.7%	4.4%	11.25	6.85	—
2022	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	8	45	5	8	2	0%	1.3	11.1%	17.8%	-6.7%	4.4%	11.25	8.10	—
2023	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	5	50	230	62	36	2	23%	2.3	19.9%	18.5%	1.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.24	—
2023	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	5	50	230	62	36	2	23%	2.3	19.9%	18.5%	1.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.24	—
2023	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	5	50	230	62	36	2	23%	2.3	27.0%	15.7%	11.3%	0.9%	3.75	3.30	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	69	285	87	26	1	0%	1.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	0.4%	3.28	2.67	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	69	285	87	26	1	0%	1.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	0.4%	3.28	2.67	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	69	285	87	26	1	0%	1.9	30.5%	9.1%	21.4%	0.4%	3.28	1.89	—
2025	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	34	11	88	376	100	47	4	32%	2.6	21.5%	13.8%	7.8%	1.4%	4.41	3.81	—
2025	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	34	11	88	376	100	47	4	32%	2.6	21.5%	13.8%	7.8%	1.4%	4.41	3.81	—
2025	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	34	11	88	376	100	47	4	32%	2.6	26.6%	12.5%	14.1%	1.1%	4.41	3.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	31	6	92	417	120	42	24	19%	3.0	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	6.9%	6.82	6.33	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	31	6	92	417	120	42	24	19%	3.0	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	6.9%	6.82	6.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	TOR	31	6	92	417	120	42	24	19%	3.0	28.8%	10.1%	18.7%	5.8%	6.82	5.10	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.1%	7.8%	2.3%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	98	442	125	45	25	—	—	28.4%	10.3%	18.1%	5.6%	6.70	6.23	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	86	0	90	382	85	51	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.5%	8.7%	2.4%	4.63	4.62	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	85	0	89	376	83	49	9	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.1%	9.0%	2.5%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	82	0	86	364	80	47	9	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	2.6%	4.66	4.70	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	78	0	82	348	76	45	10	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.82	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	74	0	78	327	77	41	10	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.6%	10.8%	3.0%	4.73	4.72	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	38	0	40	169	37	23	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.5%	8.7%	2.4%	4.63	4.62	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	53	0	56	236	52	31	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.1%	9.0%	2.5%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	62	0	65	274	60	36	7	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	2.6%	4.66	4.70	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	64	0	67	283	62	37	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.82	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	64	0	67	283	66	36	8	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.6%	10.8%	3.0%	4.73	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		281	0	295	1246	278	162	33	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.0%	9.3%	2.7%	4.68	4.33	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	110	22	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.0%	9.3%	2.7%	4.68	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		129	22	307	1353	296	178	39	17%	2.4	21.9%	13.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.52	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	14	200	881	193	116	26	17%	2.4	21.9%	13.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.52	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Amalfi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.9%	14.1%	2.3%	—	4.65	22.1%	8.9%	266	-0.04	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	91
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	86
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	86
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	85
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Irving Jimenez R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	25	SW	3.63	18.5%	12.8%	0.9%	.313	4.04	14.1%	1.7%	50	+0.41	3.63	104	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	79
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	79
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	79
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	79
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	79
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	78
James Acuna R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	24	SU	4.33	19.4%	14.8%	1.8%	.217	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	107	78
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.69	23.2%	9.9%	100	-2.06	3.37	261	78
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	78
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	78
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	83	22.2%	13.2%	1.00	4.68
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39