Alex Amalfi
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
+0.6
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%10.8%
IP78
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 6 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 8 | 2 | — | — | — | 11.25 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 22 | 5 | 50 | 230 | 62 | 36 | 2 | 19.9% | 18.5% | 0.9% | 3.75 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 36 | 0 | 69 | 285 | 87 | 26 | 1 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 0.4% | 3.28 | 2.67 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 34 | 11 | 88 | 376 | 100 | 47 | 4 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.4% | 4.41 | 3.80 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 2 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 74 | 39 | 8 | 22.5% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 86 | 359 | 84 | 40 | 8 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 4.15 | 3.94 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 75 | 38 | 8 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 75 | 37 | 8 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 74 | 36 | 8 | 22.8% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 72 | 35 | 8 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 69 | 35 | 8 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 66 | 34 | 8 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 62 | 33 | 8 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 59 | 32 | 8 | 21.7% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 55 | 31 | 8 | 21.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 51 | 30 | 7 | 20.9% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 16 | 222 | 965 | 209 | 133 | 11 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 1.1% | 4.09 | 3.63 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 14 | 200 | 868 | 188 | 120 | 10 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 1.1% | 4.09 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Amalfi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.5% | 11.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.32 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 232 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 90 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 90 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .284 | 2.58 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.59 | 1.53 | 433 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 89 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 88 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 88 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 87 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.4% | .255 | 4.70 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 47 | +1.20 | 3.50 | 106 | 87 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.35 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 129 | +0.12 | 3.93 | 258 | 87 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.44 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 0.9% | .269 | 3.46 | 23.1% | 13.0% | 181 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 307 | 87 |
| Antonio Menendez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.66 | 23.6% | 14.2% | 1.4% | .292 | 3.76 | 18.5% | 6.2% | 44 | +0.10 | 2.93 | 188 | 87 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.15 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.62 | 11.8% | -2.3% | 55 | +0.47 | 4.15 | 172 | 87 |
| Layne Somsen R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.00 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.26 | 3.66 | 154 | 86 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.48 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.17 | 4.31 | 107 | 86 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 86 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.84 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.91 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 61 | +0.07 | 2.52 | 179 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.34 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.2% | .251 | 4.14 | 21.4% | 12.3% | 109 | +0.80 | 3.34 | 187 | 86 |
| Kyle Grana R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 1.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 109 | 86 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.05 | 3.49 | 237 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$8M | ||