Alex Amalfi
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%21.9%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 6 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 11.1% | 17.8% | -6.7% | 4.4% | 11.25 | 6.85 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 6 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 11.1% | 17.8% | -6.7% | 4.4% | 11.25 | 8.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 22 | 5 | 50 | 230 | 62 | 36 | 2 | 23% | 2.3 | 19.9% | 18.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 3.75 | 4.15 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 22 | 5 | 50 | 230 | 62 | 36 | 2 | 23% | 2.3 | 27.0% | 15.7% | 11.3% | 0.9% | 3.75 | 3.30 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 36 | 0 | 69 | 285 | 87 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 0.4% | 3.28 | 2.66 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 36 | 0 | 69 | 285 | 87 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 30.5% | 9.1% | 21.4% | 0.4% | 3.28 | 1.89 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 34 | 11 | 88 | 376 | 100 | 47 | 4 | 32% | 2.6 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 4.41 | 3.93 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 34 | 11 | 88 | 376 | 100 | 47 | 4 | 32% | 2.6 | 26.6% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 1.1% | 4.41 | 3.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 16 | 5 | 57 | 244 | 65 | 22 | 10 | 31% | 3.6 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 6.47 | 5.23 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 127 | 540 | 130 | 63 | 17 | — | — | 24.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 5.50 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.9% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 66 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 65 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 29 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 72 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.27 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 113 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 21 | 272 | 1180 | 252 | 156 | 23 | 18% | 2.4 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.64 | 4.05 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 15 | 200 | 869 | 185 | 115 | 17 | 18% | 2.4 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.64 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Amalfi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.65 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 139 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 86 |
| Layne Somsen R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 85 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 84 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 84 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 82 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.10 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 4.0% | .284 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.69 | 3.41 | 368 | 81 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.63 | 18.5% | 12.8% | 0.9% | .313 | 4.12 | 14.1% | 1.7% | 50 | +0.49 | 3.63 | 104 | 80 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 80 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .295 | 4.83 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.15 | 2.94 | 267 | 79 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 79 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 79 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 79 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .275 | 8.37 | 16.9% | -3.1% | 25 | +4.34 | 4.03 | 161 | 78 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.81 | 20.4% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .315 | 3.53 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 99 | -0.28 | 3.06 | 222 | 78 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.26 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .321 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 60 | -2.04 | 2.63 | 213 | 78 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 78 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 78 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 78 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 77 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 0.95 | 4.67 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |