Brendan Collins — OGILVIE

Brendan Collins P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%21.5%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	43	13	6	0	0%	1.2	30.2%	14.0%	16.3%	0.0%	6.23	2.31	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	43	13	6	0	0%	1.2	30.2%	14.0%	16.3%	0.0%	6.23	2.18	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	30	8	68	299	88	26	5	27%	2.3	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.0%	3.69	3.67	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	30	8	68	299	88	26	5	27%	2.3	29.4%	8.7%	20.7%	1.7%	3.69	2.62	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.94	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.94	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.10	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	40	0	54	244	64	32	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	15.1%	5.1%	1.0%	3.50	3.86	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	40	0	54	244	64	32	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	15.1%	5.1%	1.0%	3.50	3.86	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	40	0	54	244	64	32	2	0%	1.4	26.2%	13.1%	13.1%	0.8%	3.50	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.8%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	46	0	48	202	44	26	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.1%	8.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.89	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	44	0	46	196	43	25	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.9%	8.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.93	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	42	0	44	187	40	24	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	17	0	18	76	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.1%	8.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.89	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26	0	27	114	25	15	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.93	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	31	131	28	17	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	0	76	322	70	42	10	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.0%	8.6%	3.0%	4.91	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	110	26	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.0%	8.6%	3.0%	4.91	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		78	8	132	591	128	74	9	10%	1.7	21.7%	12.6%	9.1%	1.4%	3.82	3.65	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	12	200	895	195	113	13	10%	1.7	21.7%	12.6%	9.1%	1.4%	3.82	3.65	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Collins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.5%	13.4%	2.8%	—	4.95	21.6%	8.6%	139	+0.04	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	90
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	85
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	44	21.6%	13.1%	1.15	4.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22