Brendan Collins

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+WSH	1	0	1	9.00	4.10	20.0%	20.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.94
2024	24	A+WSH	40	0	54	3.50	2.99	26.2%	13.1%	—	K 20.2% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.86
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.71	4.71	22.4%	11.9%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBWSH	10	0	11	4.72	4.76	22.3%	11.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Joe Colón J (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%22.4%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	43	13	6	0	0%	1.2	30.2%	14.0%	16.3%	0.0%	6.23	2.31	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	43	13	6	0	0%	1.2	30.2%	14.0%	16.3%	0.0%	6.23	2.18	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	30	8	68	299	88	26	5	27%	2.3	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.0%	3.69	3.67	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	30	8	68	299	88	26	5	27%	2.3	29.4%	8.7%	20.7%	1.7%	3.69	2.62	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.94	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.10	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	40	0	54	244	64	32	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	15.1%	5.1%	1.0%	3.50	3.86	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	40	0	54	244	64	32	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	15.1%	5.1%	1.0%	3.50	3.86	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	40	0	54	244	64	32	2	0%	1.4	26.2%	13.1%	13.1%	0.8%	3.50	2.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	11.9%	10.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	0	30	127	28	15	4	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.76	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	91	18	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		78	8	132	591	128	74	9	10%	1.7	21.7%	12.6%	9.1%	1.4%	3.82	3.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	12	200	895	195	113	13	10%	1.7	21.7%	12.6%	9.1%	1.4%	3.82	3.65	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 54 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.86 (+0.86)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.23%	—	×0.770	20.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.11%	—	×1.150	15.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.016	×1.250	1.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 68 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.67 (+1.04)K% 29.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.43%	—	×0.740	21.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.180	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.074	×1.300	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFredericksburg Nationals · 6 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.30 (+0.95)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.740	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.180	21.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.159	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Collins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	22.4%	11.9%	2.9%	—	4.76	22.3%	10.5%	30	+0.05	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	82
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	81
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	81
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	81
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	81
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	81
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	81
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	22.3%	11.9%	1.15	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44