Matthew Swain — OGILVIE

Matthew Swain P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 225 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%21.4%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	11	2	19	90	21	10	1	18%	1.8	15.9%	13.9%	2.0%	1.6%	4.66	4.37	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	11	2	19	90	21	10	1	18%	1.8	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	1.1%	4.66	3.15	—
2021	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	35	1	61	262	70	31	9	3%	1.7	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	4.9%	4.60	5.90	—
2021	23	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	35	1	61	262	70	31	9	3%	1.7	26.7%	11.8%	14.9%	3.4%	4.60	4.25	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	55	229	65	24	5	0%	1.5	21.4%	12.1%	9.4%	2.9%	3.79	4.40	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	55	229	65	24	5	0%	1.5	28.4%	10.5%	17.9%	2.2%	3.79	3.23	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	30	0	41	175	36	21	7	0%	1.4	15.8%	13.8%	2.0%	4.4%	5.53	5.93	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	30	0	41	175	36	21	7	0%	1.4	15.8%	13.8%	2.0%	4.4%	5.53	5.93	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	30	0	41	175	36	21	7	0%	1.4	20.6%	12.0%	8.6%	4.0%	5.53	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIN	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	22	0	23	97	21	11	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.81	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	29	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	87	29	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		113	3	175	756	143	101	29	3%	1.6	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	3.8%	4.57	5.27	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	3	200	862	163	115	33	3%	1.6	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	3.8%	4.57	5.27	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Swain (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	21.4%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.81	21.4%	10.4%	23	+0.09	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	82
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	82
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	82
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	81
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	81
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	80
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	80
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	80
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Matt Carasiti R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	18.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.276	4.88	22.4%	10.9%	22	+0.87	2.80	312	79