Junior Sanchez — OGILVIE

Junior Sanchez P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.2 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%14.2%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	82%	3.8	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	0.0%	2.76	3.36	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	82%	3.8	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	0.0%	2.76	3.36	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	82%	3.8	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	0.0%	2.76	2.46	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	17.1%	15.3%	1.8%	2.2%	3.78	4.79	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	17.1%	15.3%	1.8%	2.2%	3.78	4.79	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	25.2%	12.2%	12.9%	1.4%	3.78	3.28	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	1.5%	2.40	3.96	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	1.5%	2.40	3.96	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	1.4%	2.40	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	22	114	471	130	42	18	88%	4.5	21.9%	9.9%	12.0%	4.6%	4.28	5.05	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	22	114	471	130	42	18	88%	4.5	21.9%	9.9%	12.0%	4.6%	4.28	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	ARI	9	6	41	160	56	10	4	67%	4.6	35.0%	6.2%	28.7%	2.5%	2.61	2.31	—
2026	20	AA RAW	ARI	16	16	72	311	74	32	14	100%	4.5	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	4.5%	5.23	4.86	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	6	26	4	3	1	100%	6.2	14.2%	11.8%	2.3%	2.7%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	120	497	134	45	19	—	—	26.9%	9.1%	17.8%	3.8%	4.33	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	117	494	78	54	13	100%	5.6	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.6%	5.05	4.98	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	123	518	91	53	14	100%	5.6	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	2.6%	4.83	4.72	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	127	537	100	52	14	100%	5.5	18.5%	9.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.66	4.57	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	130	551	106	52	14	100%	5.7	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	2.6%	4.54	4.47	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	132	558	109	52	14	100%	5.7	19.6%	9.3%	10.2%	2.5%	4.46	4.41	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	132	558	110	52	14	100%	6.0	19.8%	9.3%	10.4%	2.5%	4.42	4.39	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	130	549	108	52	14	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.6%	4.42	4.43	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	126	533	105	51	14	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	2.7%	4.48	4.51	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	120	509	99	50	14	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	2.8%	4.58	4.64	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	113	478	91	48	15	100%	6.0	19.0%	10.1%	9.0%	3.0%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	446	83	47	15	100%	5.9	18.6%	10.4%	8.2%	3.3%	4.90	5.02	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	59	249	40	27	6	100%	5.4	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.5%	4.97	4.90	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	90	380	67	39	9	100%	5.6	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	2.5%	4.75	4.64	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	108	456	85	44	11	100%	5.4	18.5%	9.8%	8.8%	2.4%	4.58	4.49	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	116	490	94	46	12	100%	5.5	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	2.4%	4.46	4.39	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	121	511	100	48	12	100%	5.8	19.6%	9.3%	10.2%	2.4%	4.38	4.33	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	123	519	103	48	13	100%	6.2	19.8%	9.3%	10.4%	2.4%	4.34	4.31	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	124	524	103	49	13	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.5%	4.34	4.35	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	120	507	99	48	13	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.40	4.43	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	114	481	93	47	13	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	2.7%	4.49	4.55	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	108	456	87	46	13	100%	6.0	19.0%	10.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.73	+0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	100	422	79	44	13	100%	5.9	18.6%	10.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	203	1183	4996	949	488	128	100%	5.8	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.53	4.14	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	160	82	22	100%	5.8	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.53	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		71	51	294	1223	221	135	32	72%	4.1	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.6%	3.33	4.39	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	35	200	831	150	92	21	72%	4.1	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.6%	3.33	4.39	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	14.2%	11.8%	2.7%	—	4.75	17.4%	7.1%	367	-0.50	—	—	—
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	88
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	88
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	87
Osman Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	20	SP-	4.23	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.322	5.15	14.6%	1.7%	143	+0.92	4.23	189	86
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	85
Gerardo Salas R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	14.0%	10.5%	3.2%	.307	4.94	17.5%	8.9%	273	-0.06	3.44	397	85
Erik Manoah Jr. R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP-	5.67	12.9%	13.1%	3.7%	.269	5.64	14.5%	-0.3%	220	-0.03	3.47	322	85
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	85
Jose Romero R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP	4.54	13.9%	13.1%	1.8%	.302	8.19	13.0%	-11.0%	15	+3.65	4.47	117	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Winston Nicacio R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	20	SP-	4.62	11.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.325	4.31	14.4%	7.0%	64	-0.31	1.96	170	84
Ronald Bolaños R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	20	SP-	4.43	12.8%	13.6%	1.3%	.298	4.45	18.8%	7.9%	275	+0.02	4.05	508	84
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	84
Justin Dunn R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP-	4.39	13.3%	12.2%	1.6%	.313	4.17	21.9%	12.1%	313	-0.22	3.54	607	83
Jack Kochanowicz R 2021 · 5.45 FIP	20	SP	5.45	14.0%	10.7%	4.0%	.340	4.51	13.9%	7.4%	319	-0.94	3.96	597	83
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	83
Jasseel De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	13.1%	12.0%	1.5%	.275	4.36	17.0%	5.9%	202	+0.02	3.91	374	83
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	83
Orlando Noriega R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	19	SP	4.82	13.6%	12.5%	2.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	150	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	119	18.6%	9.9%	1.05	4.66
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88