Junior Sanchez — OGILVIE

Junior Sanchez P Hillsboro Hops

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137127vR 118

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%14.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP71

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.3	$7M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$13M		$37M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	82%	3.8	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	0.0%	2.76	3.36	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	82%	3.8	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	0.0%	2.76	2.46	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	17.1%	15.3%	1.8%	2.5%	3.78	4.99	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	25.2%	12.2%	12.9%	1.4%	3.78	3.28	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	1.4%	2.40	3.88	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	1.4%	2.40	3.25	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	15	12	65	268	77	24	10	80%	4.4	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	4.6%	3.72	4.98	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	ARI	13	13	71	298	42	35	8	100%	5.4	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	2.6%	5.22	5.22	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	2.7%	5.25	5.25	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	ARI	—	—	136	566	119	59	18	—	—	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.50	5.10	+0.5
2026 FULL	20	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	2.7%	5.25	4.87	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	ARI	14	14	77	326	52	36	9	100%	5.5	16.0%	11.0%	5.1%	2.6%	5.03	4.96	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	ARI	14	14	81	342	61	35	9	100%	5.8	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	2.6%	4.82	4.71	+0.3
2029	23	MLB	ARI	15	15	84	355	66	35	9	100%	5.6	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	2.6%	4.65	4.56	+0.5
2030	24	MLB	ARI	15	15	86	364	70	35	9	100%	5.7	19.3%	9.6%	9.8%	2.5%	4.53	4.46	+0.7
2031	25	MLB	ARI	15	15	87	369	73	35	9	100%	5.8	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	2.5%	4.45	4.40	+0.7
2032	26	MLB	ARI	15	15	87	369	73	35	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.5%	4.41	4.38	+0.8
2033	27	MLB	ARI	14	14	86	363	72	34	9	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.4%	10.4%	2.6%	4.41	4.42	+0.7
2034	28	MLB	ARI	14	14	83	352	70	34	9	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.50	+0.5
2035	29	MLB	ARI	13	13	80	336	72	30	10	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+0.6
2036	30	MLB	ARI	12	12	75	316	67	29	10	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.48	4.54	+0.3
2037	31	MLB	ARI	12	12	70	295	61	28	10	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.74	+0.0
2038	32	MLB	ARI	11	11	65	273	55	27	10	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.5%	4.84	4.97	-0.2
2039	33	MLB	ARI	10	10	59	250	50	26	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.8%	5.07	5.22	-0.5
2027	21	MLB	ARI	7	7	38	160	26	18	4	100%	5.4	16.0%	11.0%	5.1%	2.7%	5.06	4.99	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	ARI	10	10	59	249	44	26	7	100%	5.9	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	2.7%	4.85	4.74	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	ARI	12	12	71	300	56	29	8	100%	5.9	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	2.6%	4.68	4.59	+0.2
2030	24	MLB	ARI	13	13	77	325	63	31	8	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.6%	9.8%	2.6%	4.56	4.49	+0.4
2031	25	MLB	ARI	14	14	80	338	66	32	9	100%	5.7	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.48	4.43	+0.5
2032	26	MLB	ARI	14	14	81	342	68	32	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.6%	4.44	4.41	+0.6
2033	27	MLB	ARI	14	14	82	346	69	33	9	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.4%	10.4%	2.6%	4.44	4.45	+0.5
2034	28	MLB	ARI	13	13	79	334	66	32	9	100%	6.1	19.7%	9.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.49	4.53	+0.4
2035	29	MLB	ARI	13	13	76	321	69	29	9	100%	5.8	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.39	+0.4
2036	30	MLB	ARI	12	12	71	300	63	28	9	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.58	+0.2
2037	31	MLB	ARI	11	11	66	279	58	27	9	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.78	-0.1
2038	32	MLB	ARI	10	10	61	258	52	26	9	100%	6.1	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.6%	4.88	5.01	-0.3
2039	33	MLB	ARI	9	9	56	236	47	25	9	100%	6.2	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.9%	5.12	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			152	152	899	3794	748	368	110	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.25	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	166	82	24	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.25	+2.7
Career	—			61	41	246	1020	178	115	22	67%	4.0	17.4%	11.3%	6.1%	2.1%	3.00	4.24	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			50	33	200	829	144	94	18	67%	4.0	17.4%	11.3%	6.1%	2.1%	3.00	4.24	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	14.2%	11.7%	2.6%	—	4.74	17.5%	7.2%	242	-0.48	—	—	—
Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	89
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	88
Christian Fernandez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	86
Chris McElvain R 2028 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	15.8%	11.6%	2.9%	.275	5.18	16.0%	4.7%	191	+0.39	4.01	287	86
Osman Gutierrez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	20	SP-	4.23	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.322	5.29	14.6%	1.7%	143	+1.06	4.23	189	85
Sal Biasi R 2027 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.55	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.87	4.68	188	85
Erik Manoah Jr. R 2025 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP-	5.67	12.9%	13.1%	3.7%	.269	5.62	14.5%	-0.3%	220	-0.05	3.44	322	85
Jason Savacool R 2028 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	5.02	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.23	4.43	225	85
Jeremiah Burke R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.83	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.05	3.83	137	85
Luis Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	85
Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	16.0%	13.4%	2.4%	.305	5.43	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.68	4.75	108	84
Jeremy Lee R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	16.8%	11.5%	1.7%	.318	5.28	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.22	4.06	125	84
Ronald Bolaños R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	20	SP-	4.40	12.8%	13.6%	1.2%	.298	4.65	18.8%	7.9%	275	+0.25	4.03	508	84
Winston Nicacio R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	20	SP-	4.62	11.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.325	4.33	14.4%	7.0%	64	-0.29	1.96	170	84
Gerardo Salas R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	14.0%	10.5%	3.2%	.307	5.19	17.3%	8.5%	253	+0.19	3.41	377	84
Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP	4.86	16.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.311	6.15	21.4%	4.1%	64	+1.29	4.16	109	84
Sam Stuhr R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	15.5%	12.6%	2.4%	.347	5.74	18.4%	13.3%	39	+1.03	4.71	135	84
Brooks Auger R 2029 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	11.8%	11.8%	2.5%	.299	3.81	26.3%	14.4%	46	-1.19	3.81	138	84
Luke Gabrysh R 2028 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	13.8%	11.8%	2.1%	.271	5.55	21.8%	8.1%	59	+0.96	4.59	138	83
Enrique Segura R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	20	SP-	4.08	16.9%	10.2%	2.0%	.259	7.79	15.2%	-3.5%	51	+3.71	4.08	289	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	78	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.65
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Moore ('24)	8	98	20.5%	9.3%	1.33	4.82
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Daniel Norris ('22)	8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43