Junior Sanchez

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#349ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKARI	13	0	33	3.78	3.28	25.2%	12.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.79
2025	19	MIX2 levels	22	20	105	2.40	3.25	20.5%	8.9%	—	K 15.3% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.96
2026	20	MIX2 levels	25	22	114	4.28	3.98	27.6%	8.9%	—	K 21.9% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	21	MLBARI	1	1	2	5.24	5.24	18.2%	11.0%	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	22	MLBARI	8	8	43	4.93	4.86	19.5%	10.2%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBARI	11	11	63	4.76	4.68	20.4%	9.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 74%

CompsJohnathan Harmon (age 22) · Nick Sinacola (age 22) · Bryce Conley (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%18.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M
Totals		$8M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	82%	3.8	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	0.0%	2.76	3.36	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	82%	3.8	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	0.0%	2.76	2.46	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	17.1%	15.3%	1.8%	2.2%	3.78	4.79	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	17.1%	15.3%	1.8%	2.2%	3.78	4.79	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	0%	2.6	25.2%	12.2%	12.9%	1.4%	3.78	3.28	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	1.5%	2.40	3.96	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	1.5%	2.40	3.96	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	91%	4.8	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	1.4%	2.40	3.25	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	114	471	130	42	18	88%	4.5	21.9%	9.9%	12.0%	4.6%	4.28	5.05	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	114	471	130	42	18	88%	4.5	21.9%	9.9%	12.0%	4.6%	4.28	5.05	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	114	471	130	42	18	88%	4.5	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	3.8%	4.28	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	ARI	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.2%	11.0%	7.2%	3.5%	5.24	5.24	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	85	360	70	37	12	100%	5.7	19.5%	10.2%	9.4%	3.4%	5.03	4.96	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	85	360	74	35	12	100%	5.7	20.4%	9.7%	10.8%	3.3%	4.86	4.78	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	85	360	76	34	12	100%	5.7	21.1%	9.3%	11.7%	3.2%	4.73	4.66	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	77	325	70	30	10	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.2%	4.65	4.60	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	77	326	71	30	10	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.1%	12.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.57	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	75	318	69	29	10	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.3%	4.61	4.61	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	72	303	65	28	10	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.4%	12.2%	3.4%	4.66	4.70	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	67	282	60	27	10	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.5%	4.76	4.83	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	61	256	54	25	10	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	3.7%	4.91	5.01	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	43	182	35	18	6	100%	5.4	19.5%	10.2%	9.4%	3.2%	4.93	4.86	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	63	266	54	26	8	100%	5.7	20.4%	9.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.68	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	71	300	63	28	9	100%	5.5	21.1%	9.3%	11.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.56	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	68	287	62	26	9	100%	5.7	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.0%	4.55	4.50	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	70	296	64	27	9	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.50	4.47	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	70	296	64	27	9	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.1%	4.51	4.51	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	67	283	61	26	9	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.4%	12.2%	3.2%	4.56	4.60	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	63	266	57	26	9	100%	6.3	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	3.3%	4.65	4.72	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	58	245	51	24	9	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	3.5%	4.80	4.90	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	573	2419	511	229	76	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.5%	11.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.25	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	80	27	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.5%	11.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		71	51	294	1223	221	135	32	72%	4.1	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.6%	3.33	4.39	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	35	200	831	150	92	21	72%	4.1	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.6%	3.33	4.39	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 72 IPFIP 4.86 → 5.87 (+1.01)K% 23.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.79%	—	×0.810	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.100	11.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.50%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.40%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.86 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 41 IPFIP 2.31 → 3.45 (+1.14)K% 35.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.770	26.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.150	7.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.31 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 74 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.65 (+0.65)K% 21.2% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.19%	—	×0.740	15.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×1.180	8.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.283	×1.300	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 31 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.71 (+0.84)K% 18.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.90%	—	×0.770	14.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.81%	—	×1.150	13.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷0.968	×1.250	2.03%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 33 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.79 (+1.52)K% 25.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.17%	—	×0.680	17.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.250	15.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷0.875	×1.400	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Arizona Black · 42 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.36 (+0.90)K% 22.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.16%	—	×0.680	15.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.66%	—	×1.250	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	18.2%	11.0%	3.5%	—	4.80	20.3%	10.6%	256	-0.44	—	—	—
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	90
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	88
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	88
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	88
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	87
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	87
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	87
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	87
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	86
Sean Sullivan R 2022 · 5.28 FIP	21	SP-	5.28	19.9%	9.6%	4.8%	.298	4.44	16.9%	8.3%	243	-0.84	4.36	318	86
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	85
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	85
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	85
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	85
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	85
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.82	16.7%	4.6%	295	-0.22	4.72	389	85
Kyle Davies R 2005 · 4.27 FIP	21	SP-	4.27	15.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.311	4.79	15.5%	5.6%	312	+0.52	3.58	921	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	76	20.7%	9.7%	1.30	4.81
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Esteban Yan ('06)	3.5	77	17.9%	8.7%	1.36	5.14
Joe Boever ('85-'96, 4 WAR*)	3.8	84	20.9%*	10.0%*	1.14*	4.15*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*