Junior Sanchez — OGILVIE

Junior Sanchez P Hillsboro Hops

+0.6 WAR

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 3.0 · 2032

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.0%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.0%

IP105

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.0peak

2032

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	11	9	42	176	39	17	0	15.1%	12.1%	0.0%	2.76	3.36	+0.8
2024	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	13	0	33	147	37	18	2	17.1%	15.3%	2.3%	3.78	4.87	+0.0
2025	19	A+	Hillsboro Hops	22	20	105	429	88	38	6	15.3%	10.3%	1.5%	2.40	3.94	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	2	2	8	34	12	5	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	ARI	19	19	105	443	89	44	12	20.0%	10.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.52	+0.9
2026 Total	20	MLB	ARI	—	—	113	477	101	49	12	21.1%	10.4%	2.5%	4.19	4.19	+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	ARI	20	20	110	465	97	44	12	20.8%	9.4%	2.6%	4.41	4.36	+1.2
2028	22	MLB	ARI	25	25	138	581	127	51	15	21.8%	8.7%	2.6%	4.26	4.17	+1.8
2029	23	MLB	ARI	30	30	163	688	155	57	18	22.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.14	4.05	+2.3
2030	24	MLB	ARI	33	33	183	773	178	62	20	23.1%	8.1%	2.6%	4.03	3.96	+2.8
2031	25	MLB	ARI	34	34	185	782	183	62	20	23.4%	7.9%	2.5%	3.95	3.90	+2.9
2032	26	MLB	ARI	34	34	185	782	185	62	20	23.6%	7.9%	2.5%	3.91	3.88	+3.0
2033	27	MLB	ARI	33	33	184	776	184	62	20	23.7%	7.9%	2.6%	3.90	3.89	+2.9
2034	28	MLB	ARI	33	33	181	765	181	61	20	23.6%	8.0%	2.6%	3.91	3.92	+2.8
2035	29	MLB	ARI	32	32	177	747	176	60	20	23.5%	8.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.96	+2.7
2036	30	MLB	ARI	31	31	172	725	169	59	20	23.3%	8.2%	2.7%	3.99	4.02	+2.5
2037	31	MLB	ARI	30	30	166	700	161	58	19	23.1%	8.3%	2.8%	4.06	4.10	+2.3
2038	32	MLB	ARI	29	29	159	672	153	57	19	22.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.14	4.19	+2.0
2039	33	MLB	ARI	28	28	152	641	144	55	19	22.5%	8.6%	2.9%	4.23	4.28	+1.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			48	31	189	786	130	93	10	16.5%	11.8%	1.3%	2.62	3.90	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—			51	33	200	832	138	98	11	16.5%	11.8%	1.3%	2.62	3.90	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	20.0%	10.0%	2.7%	—	4.17	21.8%	13.1%	411	-0.35	—	—	—
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	93
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	92
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	91
Trevor Clifton R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	20	SP-	4.24	16.5%	12.0%	1.8%	.276	3.85	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.39	3.07	588	90
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	90
Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	89
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	89
Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP-	3.99	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.302	2.67	25.1%	16.6%	74	-1.32	2.67	174	89
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.17	16.8%	2.6%	91	+0.98	3.82	406	89
Sam Carlson R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	89
Ty Cummings R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	19.0%	10.5%	2.7%	.329	5.00	14.2%	5.9%	116	+0.70	4.30	233	89
Miguel Almonte R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.42	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.57	3.05	247	89
Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	88
Nick Davila R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.07	17.3%	11.0%	196	+0.18	3.46	341	88
Will Sanders R 2028 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	88
Max Gamboa R 2028 · 3.97 FIP	22	SP-	3.97	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.02	3.97	162	88
Isaiah Lowe R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	21	SP-	3.72	18.5%	12.0%	1.2%	.303	5.13	12.4%	-1.1%	92	+1.41	3.72	197	87
Braden Webb R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	87
Chris McElvain R 2028 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.8	$25M	+$24M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.9	$27M	+$26M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.0	$29M	+$28M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.9	$29M	+$24M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.8	$28M	+$21M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.7	$28M	+$17M
Totals		$26M		$166M	+$140M