Xavier Cruz — OGILVIE

Xavier Cruz P FCL Cardinals

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 153 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%20.9%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	10	0	15	66	10	4	1	0%	1.5	10.3%	7.6%	2.7%	1.6%	4.11	4.08	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	10	0	15	66	10	4	1	0%	1.5	10.3%	7.6%	2.7%	1.6%	4.11	4.08	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	10	0	15	66	10	4	1	0%	1.5	15.2%	6.1%	9.1%	1.5%	4.11	3.43	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	8	25	111	30	19	0	89%	2.8	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	0.0%	4.32	4.26	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	8	25	111	30	19	0	89%	2.8	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	0.0%	4.32	4.26	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	9	8	25	111	30	19	0	89%	2.8	27.0%	17.1%	9.9%	0.0%	4.32	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	7	2	21	89	38	14	5	29%	3.0	29.6%	16.1%	13.5%	9.0%	3.86	7.60	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	7	2	21	89	38	14	5	29%	3.0	29.6%	16.1%	13.5%	9.0%	3.86	7.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	STL	5	2	15	62	27	8	4	40%	3.1	43.5%	12.9%	30.6%	6.5%	3.52	4.60	—
2026	20	A RAW	STL	2	0	6	27	11	6	1	0%	2.9	40.7%	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	4.76	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	STL	22	0	24	100	21	14	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.9%	7.7%	2.8%	5.08	4.98	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	STL	11	0	12	51	11	7	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.9%	7.7%	2.8%	5.08	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	11	7	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.9%	7.7%	2.8%	5.08	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	121	17	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.9%	7.7%	2.8%	5.08	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		26	10	61	266	54	43	9	38%	2.4	20.1%	16.2%	3.9%	3.4%	4.11	5.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	33	200	867	175	141	30	38%	2.4	20.1%	16.2%	3.9%	3.4%	4.11	5.33	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	20.9%	16.0%	2.9%	—	4.98	21.5%	7.7%	24	-0.35	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	87
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	86
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	85
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	85
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	84
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	83
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	83
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	81
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	81
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	81
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	81
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	81
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	80
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	80
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	80
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	79
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	79