Daviel Hurtado — OGILVIE

Daviel Hurtado P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 166 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%18.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	8	8	16	68	23	10	0	100%	2.0	23.0%	18.4%	4.6%	0.0%	6.32	3.49	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	8	8	16	68	23	10	0	100%	2.0	23.0%	18.4%	4.6%	0.0%	6.32	3.49	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	8	8	16	68	23	10	0	100%	2.0	33.8%	14.7%	19.1%	0.0%	6.32	2.08	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	66	272	75	24	3	67%	3.6	19.9%	10.5%	9.3%	1.7%	2.06	3.68	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	66	272	75	24	3	67%	3.6	19.9%	10.5%	9.3%	1.7%	2.06	3.68	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	66	272	75	24	3	67%	3.6	27.6%	8.8%	18.8%	1.1%	2.06	2.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	21	18	86	344	89	27	5	86%	4.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	1.6%	2.93	3.66	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	21	18	86	344	89	27	5	86%	4.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	1.6%	2.93	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	NYM	4	3	9	39	15	1	1	75%	2.2	38.5%	2.6%	35.9%	2.6%	5.00	1.58	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	NYM	17	15	77	305	74	26	4	88%	4.5	24.3%	8.5%	15.7%	1.3%	2.69	2.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	88	373	74	40	10	100%	5.2	20.0%	10.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.79	4.70	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	92	387	81	39	11	100%	5.4	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.51	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	94	397	85	38	11	100%	5.5	21.4%	9.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.39	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	95	402	88	38	11	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	2.7%	4.39	4.33	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	95	402	89	37	11	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	2.7%	4.34	4.30	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	94	396	87	37	11	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	2.8%	4.34	4.34	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	91	384	84	37	11	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.43	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	87	367	79	36	11	100%	6.2	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.56	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	82	345	74	35	11	100%	5.8	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.74	+0.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	76	322	74	31	11	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.5%	4.66	4.67	+0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	70	298	67	30	11	100%	5.9	22.5%	10.0%	12.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.89	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	44	186	37	20	5	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.79	4.70	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	67	283	59	28	8	100%	5.2	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.51	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	78	329	71	32	9	100%	5.6	21.4%	9.6%	11.9%	2.7%	4.48	4.39	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	84	355	77	33	10	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	2.7%	4.39	4.33	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	87	367	81	34	10	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	2.7%	4.34	4.30	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	87	367	81	34	10	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	2.8%	4.34	4.34	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	85	359	79	34	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.43	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	83	350	76	34	11	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.56	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	78	329	70	33	11	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.74	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	72	304	70	29	11	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.5%	4.66	4.67	+0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	67	283	64	28	10	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.0%	12.4%	3.7%	4.79	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	831	3510	763	341	105	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.0%	4.51	4.13	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	82	25	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.0%	4.51	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		47	38	167	684	134	75	10	81%	3.6	19.6%	10.9%	8.6%	1.5%	2.90	3.65	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	45	200	818	160	90	12	81%	3.6	19.6%	10.9%	8.6%	1.5%	2.90	3.65	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daviel Hurtado (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	18.7%	12.1%	2.8%	—	4.53	20.8%	10.6%	274	-0.46	—	—	—
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	86
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	86
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	84
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	82
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	82
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	82
Luis Moncada L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.87	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.06	3.81	296	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	82
Frankeli Arias L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	15.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.318	5.53	16.1%	3.0%	196	+1.26	3.87	298	81
Ryan Lawlor L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	14.8%	13.0%	1.2%	.286	3.24	20.1%	8.1%	107	-0.93	2.24	201	81
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	80
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	79
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	79
Yeffersson Yannuzzi L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	21	SP-	4.56	18.4%	12.1%	2.7%	.295	6.73	12.6%	-24.4%	10	+2.17	4.56	137	79
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	79
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	78
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	84	21.5%	9.9%	1.15	4.55
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32