Daviel Hurtado

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 166 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#405ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKNYM	8	8	16	6.32	2.08	33.8%	14.7%	—	K 23.0% · BB 18.4% · FIP 3.49
2025	20	MIX2 levels	18	12	66	2.06	2.51	27.6%	8.8%	—	K 19.9% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.68
2026	21	MIX2 levels	21	18	86	2.93	2.73	25.9%	7.8%	—	K 18.7% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	22	MLBNYM	—	—	0	4.67	4.67	19.0%	10.5%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBNYM	4	4	23	4.54	4.47	20.3%	9.8%	0.2
2029PROJ54% MLB	24	MLBNYM	6	6	36	4.42	4.35	21.0%	9.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 79%

CompsRylan Kaufman (age 22) · Jordan Woods (age 20) · Nate Peterson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%19.0%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
Totals		$8M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	8	8	16	68	23	10	0	100%	2.0	23.0%	18.4%	4.6%	0.0%	6.32	3.49	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	8	8	16	68	23	10	0	100%	2.0	23.0%	18.4%	4.6%	0.0%	6.32	3.49	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	8	8	16	68	23	10	0	100%	2.0	33.8%	14.7%	19.1%	0.0%	6.32	2.08	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	66	272	75	24	3	67%	3.6	19.9%	10.5%	9.3%	1.7%	2.06	3.68	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	66	272	75	24	3	67%	3.6	19.9%	10.5%	9.3%	1.7%	2.06	3.68	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	66	272	75	24	3	67%	3.6	27.6%	8.8%	18.8%	1.1%	2.06	2.51	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	86	344	89	27	5	86%	4.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	1.6%	2.93	3.66	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	86	344	89	27	5	86%	4.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	1.6%	2.93	3.66	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	86	344	89	27	5	86%	4.1	25.9%	7.8%	18.0%	1.5%	2.93	2.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	2.7%	4.67	4.67	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	66	278	56	27	7	100%	5.5	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.7%	4.54	4.47	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	66	278	58	26	7	100%	5.5	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.42	4.35	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	60	253	54	23	7	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.2%	12.3%	2.7%	4.34	4.29	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	60	253	55	23	7	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.30	4.27	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	58	246	53	23	7	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.7%	4.30	4.31	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	61	258	61	22	7	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.12	+0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	57	239	56	21	7	100%	6.3	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	3.0%	4.23	4.25	+0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	51	215	49	19	7	100%	6.4	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	3.2%	4.35	4.43	+0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	45	190	43	18	6	100%	5.6	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.4%	4.52	4.63	+0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	39	166	37	16	6	100%	5.6	22.0%	9.8%	12.3%	3.6%	4.72	4.86	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	23	97	20	10	3	100%	5.8	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.7%	4.54	4.47	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	36	152	32	14	4	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.35	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	40	169	36	15	4	100%	5.7	21.4%	9.2%	12.3%	2.7%	4.34	4.29	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	46	194	42	18	5	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.30	4.27	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	47	198	43	18	5	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.7%	4.30	4.31	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	52	220	52	19	6	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.12	+0.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	49	207	48	18	6	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	3.0%	4.23	4.25	+0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	45	190	43	17	6	100%	5.6	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	3.2%	4.35	4.43	+0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	41	173	39	16	6	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.4%	4.52	4.63	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	36	152	34	15	6	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.8%	12.3%	3.6%	4.72	4.86	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	416	1756	389	160	51	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.36	3.99	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	77	25	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.36	3.99	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		47	38	167	684	134	75	10	81%	3.6	19.6%	10.9%	8.6%	1.5%	2.90	3.65	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	45	200	818	160	90	12	81%	3.6	19.6%	10.9%	8.6%	1.5%	2.90	3.65	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 77 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.66 (+0.81)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.26%	—	×0.770	18.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.52%	—	×1.150	9.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.64%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 9 IPFIP 1.58 → 2.91 (+1.33)K% 38.5% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.740	28.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.56%	—	×1.180	3.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 47 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.19 (+1.18)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.63%	—	×0.740	18.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×1.180	11.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷0.855	×1.300	2.25%

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Mets · 19 IPFIP 0.96 → 2.17 (+1.21)K% 36.2% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.23%	—	×0.680	24.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.250	9.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.927	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 0.96 → 2.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Mets · 16 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.49 (+1.38)K% 33.8% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.82%	—	×0.680	23.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.250	18.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.974	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daviel Hurtado (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.37	20.9%	11.4%	192	-0.30	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	88
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	84
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	84
Brad Halsey L 2004 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.3%	9.2%	2.6%	.336	4.43	11.9%	5.4%	254	+0.12	4.31	286	83
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	83
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	83
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	83
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	83
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	82
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	82
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	81
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	81
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	80
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	80
Caleb Baragar L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	22	SP-	3.65	15.6%	9.2%	1.3%	.300	4.48	16.5%	8.1%	330	+0.83	3.65	557	80
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	80
Yadiel Batista L 2024 · 4.67 FIP	20	SP	4.67	15.5%	10.2%	2.9%	.318	4.41	14.2%	5.5%	140	-0.26	3.00	225	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	56	21.7%	9.3%	1.11	4.40
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*