Caleb Baragar

P St. Paul Saints

Age 33 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	AAACLE	23	0	32	6.54	5.53	27.9%	18.4%	—	K 24.0% · BB 16.5% · FIP 5.54
2024	30	AAAMIN	16	4	26	5.96	4.89	22.4%	9.5%	—	K 19.3% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIN	5	0	5	4.61	4.74	20.1%	9.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBMIN	2	0	2	4.83	5.00	19.5%	10.3%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	35	MLBMIN	—	—	0	5.08	5.28	18.9%	10.7%	—

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

xwOBA vs45

FB Velo26

K%10

CompsBrandon Mann (age 33) · Alejandro Soto (age 33) · Colt Hynes (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.61

FIP4.74

K%20.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	61	242	53	21	2	73%	4.1	15.6%	9.2%	6.4%	1.3%	2.51	3.65	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	11	61	242	53	21	2	73%	4.1	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	0.8%	2.51	2.82	—
2017	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	22	115	497	81	35	8	100%	5.2	12.1%	8.3%	3.8%	2.6%	4.63	4.54	—
2017	23	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	22	22	115	497	81	35	8	100%	5.2	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	1.6%	4.63	3.51	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	12	82	337	85	18	10	46%	3.2	19.6%	6.5%	13.1%	3.4%	4.06	4.15	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	12	82	337	85	18	10	46%	3.2	25.2%	5.3%	19.9%	3.0%	4.06	3.27	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	141	582	135	51	15	93%	5.0	18.5%	9.7%	8.8%	3.4%	3.57	4.61	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	26	141	582	135	51	15	93%	5.0	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	2.6%	3.57	3.65	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	24	1	22	88	19	5	3	4%	0.9	21.6%	5.7%	15.9%	3.7%	4.03	4.02	+0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	24	1	22	88	19	5	3	4%	0.9	21.6%	5.7%	15.9%	3.4%	4.03	3.82	+0.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	45	217	41	31	8	2%	1.0	17.5%	14.8%	2.7%	4.1%	4.96	5.72	-0.6
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	45	217	41	31	8	2%	1.0	18.9%	14.3%	4.6%	3.7%	4.96	5.64	-0.6
2022	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	43	3	47	210	50	28	15	7%	1.1	21.0%	14.0%	7.0%	8.1%	5.51	7.57	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	43	3	47	210	50	28	15	7%	1.1	23.8%	13.3%	10.5%	7.1%	5.51	6.88	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	23	0	32	147	41	27	6	0%	1.4	24.0%	16.5%	7.5%	4.3%	6.54	5.54	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	23	0	32	147	41	27	6	0%	1.4	27.9%	18.4%	9.5%	4.1%	6.54	5.53	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	16	4	26	116	26	11	5	25%	1.6	19.3%	8.5%	10.7%	4.6%	5.96	5.06	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	16	4	26	116	26	11	5	25%	1.6	19.3%	8.5%	10.7%	4.6%	5.96	5.06	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	16	4	26	116	26	11	5	25%	1.6	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	4.3%	5.96	4.89	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	1	45	186	35	15	4	2%	0.9	18.8%	8.1%	10.8%	2.2%	2.78	3.70	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIN	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.1%	4.61	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIN	37	0	38	162	32	17	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.3%	9.3%	3.4%	4.83	5.00	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIN	28	0	29	124	23	13	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.7%	8.1%	3.7%	5.08	5.28	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIN	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.3%	9.3%	3.4%	4.83	5.00	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	10.7%	8.1%	3.7%	5.08	5.28	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	1	48	196	37	16	4	2%	0.9	18.8%	8.2%	10.7%	2.2%	2.88	3.76	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		215	4	200	822	155	67	17	2%	0.9	18.8%	8.2%	10.7%	2.2%	2.88	3.76	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		244	80	571	2436	430	242	88	33%	2.3	17.6%	10.0%	7.7%	3.6%	4.30	4.85	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	28	200	853	151	85	31	33%	2.3	17.6%	10.0%	7.7%	3.6%	4.30	4.85	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 26 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.06 (+0.28)K% 22.4% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.860	19.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×0.900	8.53%
HR / BF /BF	4.31%	÷1.039	×1.100	4.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 32 IPFIP 5.31 → 5.54 (+0.23)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.89%	—	×0.860	23.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.37%	—	×0.900	16.53%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.037	×1.100	4.33%

Result: FIP 5.31 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 47 IPFIP 6.70 → 7.57 (+0.88)K% 23.8% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.880	20.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.050	14.00%
HR / BF /BF	7.14%	÷0.965	×1.100	8.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 6.70 → 7.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 22 IPFIP 6.79 → 7.46 (+0.67)K% 21.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.01%	—	×0.880	18.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.65%	—	×1.050	18.53%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷0.995	×1.100	6.50%

Result: FIP 6.79 → 7.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 120 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.59 (+0.93)K% 21.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.810	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.38%	—	×1.100	9.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷0.890	×1.200	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+San Jose Giants · 17 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.74 (+1.29)K% 30.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.770	23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.947	×1.250	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 4 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.04 (+0.54)K% 28.6% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.880	25.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.050	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.027	×1.100	5.10%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAugusta GreenJackets · 67 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.34 (+1.13)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.34%	—	×0.740	20.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.49%	—	×1.180	5.30%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷1.057	×1.300	4.15%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Baragar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	20.1%	9.8%	3.1%	—	5.12	19.2%	8.8%	68	+0.38	—	—	—
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	71
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	69
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	69
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	69
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	63
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	63
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	63
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	63
Micah Bowie L 2007 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	16.9%	10.9%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	140	62
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.00	625	62
Doug Creek L 2002 · 4.99 FIP	33	SU	4.99	21.4%	12.6%	3.8%	.288	5.79	17.1%	7.9%	36	+0.80	4.48	277	61
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	61
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	61
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	61
Ryan Sherriff L 2023 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	21.9%	11.0%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	245	60
Kelly Wunsch L 2005 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	21.0%	11.4%	1.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	175	59
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	59
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	58
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	58
Grant Dayton L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	.325	3.80	23.2%	13.5%	49	-0.20	1.63	277	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	33	19.4%	9.9%	1.17	4.25
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*