Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 10 | 9 | 39 | 152 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 90% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 1.6% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 3.96 | 3.08 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 10 | 9 | 39 | 152 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 90% | 3.9 | 24.3% | 1.3% | 23.0% | 1.3% | 3.96 | 2.01 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 11 | 10 | 46 | 197 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 91% | 4.2 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 4.72 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 11 | 10 | 46 | 197 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 91% | 4.2 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 3.88 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 5 | 75 | 315 | 63 | 22 | 6 | 26% | 3.9 | 14.0% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 4.22 | 4.22 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 5 | 75 | 315 | 63 | 22 | 6 | 26% | 3.9 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 1 | 41 | 176 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 5% | 2.0 | 14.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | STL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 30 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.14 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | STL | — | — | 94 | 398 | 64 | 32 | 10 | — | — | 16.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | STL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 36 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | STL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | STL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | STL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 46 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.40 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 140 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 25 | 201 | 840 | 125 | 62 | 21 | 42% | 3.3 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 25 | 200 | 837 | 125 | 62 | 21 | 42% | 3.3 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yadiel Batista (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 13.5% | 9.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.80 | 16.5% | 7.5% | 110 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .322 | 4.80 | 14.7% | 0.1% | 130 | +0.11 | 4.62 | 195 | 89 |
| Scott Squier L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.89 | 12.2% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 4.13 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 234 | -0.76 | 3.30 | 276 | 86 |
| Steven Moyers L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.06 | 10.7% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .312 | 4.03 | 14.8% | 9.8% | 297 | -0.03 | 3.67 | 464 | 86 |
| Jack Patterson L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.08 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 80 | -1.64 | 3.08 | 127 | 82 |
| Connor Oliver L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 81 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.07 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .259 | 2.95 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 151 | -2.12 | 2.22 | 486 | 80 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2027 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.93 | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.20 | 13.7% | 4.9% | 122 | -1.73 | 4.20 | 218 | 80 |
| Riley Cooper L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .287 | 4.35 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 44 | +0.08 | 4.27 | 132 | 80 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.98 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .326 | 4.74 | 17.8% | 6.8% | 81 | +0.76 | 3.98 | 153 | 79 |
| Cameron Roegner L 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.16 | 11.1% | 12.1% | 0.9% | .273 | 3.90 | 15.1% | 6.5% | 278 | -0.26 | 3.65 | 319 | 78 |
| Matt Walker L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .324 | 4.69 | 15.5% | 4.0% | 94 | +0.42 | 4.27 | 156 | 78 |
| Kohl Drake L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 16.3% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .391 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 262 | -0.58 | 3.28 | 297 | 78 |
| Matt Crouse L 2029 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .276 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 268 | +0.35 | 3.97 | 342 | 78 |
| Luis De Paula L 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 14.8% | 14.2% | 1.4% | .285 | 5.36 | 16.4% | 0.2% | 47 | +0.92 | 4.44 | 125 | 78 |
| Luciano De La Cruz L 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.57 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 120 | 77 |
| Hayden Howard L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .307 | 3.80 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 123 | -0.51 | 3.77 | 200 | 77 |
| Steve Ascher L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.07 | 13.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 151 | 77 |
| Alex Winkelman L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.37 | 15.8% | 14.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.74 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 181 | -0.63 | 3.37 | 246 | 77 |
| Cameron Ming L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .308 | 5.28 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 49 | +1.25 | 4.03 | 111 | 77 |
| Tom Windle L 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.6% | .304 | 4.24 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.37 | 3.79 | 330 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 15.5% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.96 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |