Jostin Florentino

Jostin Florentino P South Bend Cubs

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.7 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%19.5%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—55

CMD3050

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.9M
Totals		$14M		$16M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	35	144	35	10	2	0%	2.7	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.8%	3.57	3.78	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	35	144	35	10	2	0%	2.7	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.8%	3.57	3.78	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	35	144	35	10	2	0%	2.7	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	1.4%	3.57	2.70	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	0.0%	2.06	2.58	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	0.0%	2.06	2.58	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	29.4%	7.4%	22.1%	0.0%	2.06	1.67	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	1.4%	2.43	3.15	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	1.4%	2.43	3.15	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	29.7%	7.4%	22.4%	0.9%	2.43	2.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	18	18	66	290	78	34	12	100%	3.7	21.6%	13.9%	7.8%	5.5%	4.61	6.03	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	18	18	66	290	78	34	12	100%	3.7	21.6%	13.9%	7.8%	5.5%	4.61	6.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	CHC	1	1	3	16	1	1	0	100%	3.3	6.2%	6.2%	0.0%	0.0%	2.70	3.36	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	CHC	17	17	63	274	77	33	12	100%	3.7	28.1%	12.0%	16.1%	4.4%	4.71	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	77	325	68	27	9	100%	5.1	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	2.6%	4.28	4.22	+0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	80	337	73	27	9	100%	5.3	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	2.6%	4.17	4.10	+0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	82	345	77	27	9	100%	5.5	22.4%	7.8%	14.5%	2.6%	4.08	4.02	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	83	350	79	27	9	100%	5.9	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	2.6%	4.01	3.97	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	83	350	80	27	9	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.7%	15.3%	2.6%	3.97	3.95	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	82	345	79	27	9	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.8%	15.2%	2.7%	3.98	3.98	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	79	334	83	24	9	100%	6.1	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	2.8%	3.87	3.80	+1.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	319	78	23	9	100%	5.8	24.6%	7.3%	17.2%	2.9%	3.91	3.93	+0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	71	300	73	23	9	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.6%	16.6%	3.1%	4.03	4.11	+0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	66	280	67	22	9	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.0%	15.8%	3.3%	4.20	4.31	+0.5
2037	32	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	61	259	60	22	9	100%	6.1	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	3.6%	4.40	4.53	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	38	160	33	13	4	100%	5.4	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	2.5%	4.23	4.17	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	58	245	53	20	6	100%	5.3	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	2.5%	4.12	4.05	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	68	287	64	23	7	100%	5.7	22.4%	7.8%	14.5%	2.5%	4.03	3.97	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	73	308	70	24	8	100%	6.1	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	2.5%	3.96	3.92	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	76	321	74	25	8	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.7%	15.3%	2.5%	3.92	3.90	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	76	321	74	25	8	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.8%	15.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.93	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	74	312	77	22	8	100%	6.2	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	2.7%	3.81	3.74	+1.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	72	304	75	22	9	100%	6.0	24.6%	7.3%	17.2%	2.8%	3.85	3.87	+0.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	68	287	69	22	9	100%	6.2	24.2%	7.6%	16.6%	3.0%	3.97	4.05	+0.6
2036	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	63	266	63	21	9	100%	6.3	23.8%	8.0%	15.8%	3.2%	4.13	4.24	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	58	245	57	20	8	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	3.4%	4.33	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	124	723	3054	709	236	84	100%	5.8	23.2%	7.7%	15.5%	2.7%	4.00	3.62	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	65	23	100%	5.8	23.2%	7.7%	15.5%	2.7%	4.00	3.62	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		57	39	218	910	186	95	23	68%	3.8	20.5%	10.4%	10.0%	2.5%	3.22	4.08	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	835	171	87	21	68%	3.8	20.5%	10.4%	10.0%	2.5%	3.22	4.08	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jostin Florentino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	19.5%	8.6%	2.7%	—	4.11	21.6%	13.6%	238	-0.28	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	88
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	88
Adam Leverett R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP-	3.41	20.4%	10.0%	1.4%	.274	4.46	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.05	3.41	401	87
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	86
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	86
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	86
Tommy Bergjans R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	17.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.327	4.36	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.97	3.39	322	86
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	85
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	85
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	84
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	84
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	83
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Hansel Paulino R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	21	SP-	4.38	15.8%	7.5%	3.0%	.302	4.45	18.5%	10.7%	18	+0.07	2.98	156	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	75	22.8%	7.8%	1.09	4.09
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94