Jostin Florentino P Myrtle Beach Pelicans
+0.8 WAR
Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.0 · 2032
ERA4.21
FIP4.21
xFIP
SIERA
K%22.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.3%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2032
K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202318ROKDSL Cubs Red130351443510216.5%8.7%1.7%3.573.76+0.5
202419ROKDSL Cubs Red107351364010020.0%9.2%0.0%2.062.58+0.9
202520AMyrtle Beach Pelicans16148134010125321.4%8.8%1.4%2.433.20+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
202621MLBCHC1515813437731922.5%9.2%2.7%4.214.21+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202722MLBCHC2020107453106391223.4%8.5%2.6%4.114.04+1.5
202823MLBCHC2424131555133451524.0%8.2%2.6%4.013.93+2.0
202924MLBCHC2727151636155501724.4%7.9%2.6%3.923.85+2.5
203025MLBCHC3030165695172541824.7%7.8%2.6%3.863.81+2.8
203126MLBCHC3131172725181561924.9%7.7%2.6%3.823.79+2.9
203227MLBCHC3232174736184571925.0%7.8%2.6%3.813.80+3.0
203328MLBCHC3232174733183571924.9%7.8%2.7%3.823.82+2.9
203429MLBCHC3131170717178561924.8%7.9%2.7%3.853.87+2.8
203530MLBCHC3030165695171551924.6%8.0%2.8%3.903.93+2.6
203631MLBCHC2929159671163541924.4%8.1%2.8%3.964.00+2.3
203732MLBCHC2828152644155531924.1%8.2%2.9%4.044.09+2.1
203833MLBCHC2626146615146521823.8%8.4%3.0%4.134.19+1.8
203934MLBCHC2525138584137501823.4%8.6%3.1%4.234.30+1.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career392115262012455720.0%8.8%1.2%2.613.19+3.6
/ 200 IP512820081816473920.0%8.8%1.2%2.613.19+4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jostin Florentino (OGILVIE) 4.21 22.5%9.2%2.7% 3.93 24.0%15.8%390 -0.28
David Perez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP 22 SP- 3.99 21.1%9.3%2.7%.292 5.20 15.6%1.9%67 +1.21 3.99 151 95
Jaden Hamm R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 21 SP- 3.82 23.5%8.9%2.9%.273 4.78 17.1%7.3%83 +0.96 3.82 182 91
Javi Rivera R 2027 · 3.85 FIP 22 SP- 3.85 22.3%7.9%3.0%.259 3.72 18.6%9.0%93 -0.13 2.77 186 90
Cory Lewis R 2027 · 3.42 FIP 22 SP- 3.42 21.7%9.3%1.8%.267 5.08 22.0%5.4%139 +1.66 3.42 240 89
Griffin Canning R 2027 · 3.70 FIP 22 SP- 3.70 21.8%10.0%2.1%.312 4.13 23.9%15.3%225 +0.43 3.65 705 89
Jarrod Cande R 2027 · 4.32 FIP 22 SP- 4.32 19.1%7.3%3.5%.330 4.96 18.1%9.1%212 +0.64 4.32 292 88
Austin Cates R 2027 · 3.95 FIP 22 SP- 3.95 19.7%9.0%2.5%.266 3.95 110 88
Osmer Morales R 2027 · 4.30 FIP 22 SP- 4.30 17.8%7.7%3.1%.319 4.56 19.2%9.6%345 +0.26 3.14 429 88
Brandon Bailey R 2027 · 3.52 FIP 22 SP- 3.52 24.6%9.9%2.3%.290 4.44 21.2%9.6%215 +0.92 3.52 306 88
Blake Money R 2027 · 3.53 FIP 22 SP- 3.53 20.7%6.9%2.4%.281 4.05 23.6%14.1%121 +0.52 3.53 224 88
David Festa R 2027 · 3.66 FIP 22 SP- 3.66 19.9%9.5%1.9%.275 3.74 26.6%17.0%302 +0.08 3.66 405 88
Ian Bedell R 2028 · 3.72 FIP 23 SP- 3.72 21.0%10.1%2.0%.285 5.74 19.4%9.6%160 +2.02 3.72 256 88
Mason Hickman R 2027 · 4.73 FIP 22 SP- 4.73 20.2%10.2%3.7%.288 5.45 24.0%10.8%181 +0.72 4.73 300 88
Jack Wenninger R 2027 · 4.25 FIP 22 SP- 4.25 20.9%9.3%3.2%.309 3.90 21.4%13.1%136 -0.35 3.90 251 88
Kyle Scott R 2027 · 4.19 FIP 22 SP- 4.19 17.7%8.2%2.8%.269 3.94 15.9%4.3%42 -0.25 3.94 138 88
Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP 22 SP- 4.24 21.3%10.6%2.9%.297 4.28 20.2%11.6%172 +0.04 4.19 282 88
Nick Davila R 2027 · 3.89 FIP 22 SP- 3.89 18.0%9.3%2.1%.297 4.07 17.3%11.0%196 +0.18 3.46 341 88
Steven Zobac R 2027 · 3.27 FIP 22 SP- 3.27 19.7%7.5%1.6%.332 3.78 18.4%11.7%162 +0.51 3.27 253 88
Cody Morris R 2027 · 3.68 FIP 22 SP- 3.68 21.6%8.1%2.5%.362 2.90 31.1%20.9%96 -0.78 2.23 256 88
Zack Lee R 2028 · 3.52 FIP 23 SP- 3.52 19.2%7.0%2.1%.293 5.37 11.6%2.7%93 +1.85 3.52 175 87

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Arb-3$0.9M+2.9$27M+$26M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.9M+3.0$29M+$28M
2033Ext / FA-deal$1.0M+2.9$29M+$28M
2034Ext / FA-deal$5M+2.8$28M+$23M
2035Ext / FA-deal$8M+2.6$27M+$19M
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $16M $140M +$124M