Jostin Florentino

P South Bend Cubs

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#558ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	2.06	1.67	29.4%	7.4%	—	K 20.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 2.58
2025	20	MIX2 levels	16	14	81	2.43	2.02	29.7%	7.4%	—	K 21.4% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.15
2026	21	MIX2 levels	18	18	66	4.61	4.64	26.9%	11.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 13.9% · FIP 6.03
2027PROJ	22	MLBCHC	—	—	0	5.02	5.02	20.2%	11.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCHC	6	6	31	4.77	4.70	21.2%	10.3%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCHC	8	8	44	4.61	4.53	21.9%	9.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 81%

CompsNoah Denoyer (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%20.2%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	35	144	35	10	2	0%	2.7	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.8%	3.57	3.78	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	35	144	35	10	2	0%	2.7	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	1.4%	3.57	2.70	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	0.0%	2.06	2.58	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	0.0%	2.06	2.58	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	29.4%	7.4%	22.1%	0.0%	2.06	1.67	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	1.4%	2.43	3.15	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	1.4%	2.43	3.15	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	29.7%	7.4%	22.4%	0.9%	2.43	2.02	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	66	290	78	34	12	100%	3.7	21.6%	13.9%	7.8%	5.5%	4.61	6.03	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	66	290	78	34	12	100%	3.7	21.6%	13.9%	7.8%	5.5%	4.61	6.03	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	66	290	78	34	12	100%	3.7	26.9%	11.7%	15.2%	4.1%	4.61	4.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	11.3%	8.8%	3.3%	5.02	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	63	267	57	28	9	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.77	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	63	267	59	26	8	100%	5.8	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.60	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	58	247	55	23	8	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.3%	13.0%	3.2%	4.57	4.50	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	59	247	56	23	8	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.48	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	57	241	54	23	8	100%	5.7	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.2%	4.51	4.52	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	54	229	52	22	8	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.3%	4.56	4.60	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	50	212	47	21	7	100%	6.3	22.2%	9.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.66	4.73	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	45	191	42	19	7	100%	5.7	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.81	4.91	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	31	131	28	14	4	100%	5.2	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.70	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	44	186	41	18	6	100%	5.5	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.1%	4.61	4.53	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	48	203	45	19	6	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.51	4.44	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	51	215	49	20	7	100%	6.4	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	3.0%	4.45	4.42	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	52	220	50	21	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.45	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	50	211	47	20	7	100%	6.2	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.2%	4.49	4.53	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	47	198	44	19	7	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.8%	12.5%	3.3%	4.59	4.66	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	42	177	39	18	6	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.5%	4.73	4.83	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	365	1541	343	148	49	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.18	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	81	27	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		57	39	218	910	186	95	23	68%	3.8	20.5%	10.4%	10.0%	2.5%	3.22	4.08	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	835	171	87	21	68%	3.8	20.5%	10.4%	10.0%	2.5%	3.22	4.08	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 63 IPFIP 4.66 → 6.03 (+1.38)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.10%	—	×0.770	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.04%	—	×1.150	13.85%
HR / BF /BF	4.38%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.66 → 6.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 60 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.93 (+0.86)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.91%	—	×0.740	19.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.03%	—	×1.180	9.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.40%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 22 IPFIP 1.85 → 3.77 (+1.92)K% 37.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.36%	—	×0.680	25.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.49%	—	×1.250	6.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.868	×1.400	3.54%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Cubs Red · 35 IPFIP 1.55 → 2.58 (+1.03)K% 29.4% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.680	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×1.250	9.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.025	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.55 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Cubs Red · 35 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.78 (+1.09)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.31%	—	×0.680	16.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.94%	—	×1.250	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.090	×1.400	1.78%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jostin Florentino (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.63	21.8%	12.0%	185	-0.39	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	93
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	92
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	90
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	87
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	87
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	86
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	86
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	86
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	85
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	83
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	56	22.0%	9.8%	1.27	4.68
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*