Jostin Florentino
P
Myrtle Beach Pelicans
+0.8
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 3.0 · 2032
ERA4.21
FIP4.21
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.3%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | 13 | 0 | 35 | 144 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 3.57 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | 10 | 7 | 35 | 136 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 2.06 | 2.58 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 16 | 14 | 81 | 340 | 101 | 25 | 3 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 2.43 | 3.20 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 77 | 31 | 9 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 106 | 39 | 12 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.04 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 131 | 555 | 133 | 45 | 15 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 4.01 | 3.93 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 27 | 151 | 636 | 155 | 50 | 17 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 3.85 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 30 | 30 | 165 | 695 | 172 | 54 | 18 | 24.7% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.81 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 31 | 31 | 172 | 725 | 181 | 56 | 19 | 24.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.82 | 3.79 | +2.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 32 | 32 | 174 | 736 | 184 | 57 | 19 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 3.80 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 32 | 32 | 174 | 733 | 183 | 57 | 19 | 24.9% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.82 | +2.9 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 31 | 31 | 170 | 717 | 178 | 56 | 19 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.87 | +2.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 30 | 30 | 165 | 695 | 171 | 55 | 19 | 24.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.93 | +2.6 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 29 | 159 | 671 | 163 | 54 | 19 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +2.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 28 | 28 | 152 | 644 | 155 | 53 | 19 | 24.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.09 | +2.1 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 26 | 26 | 146 | 615 | 146 | 52 | 18 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 137 | 50 | 18 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 21 | 152 | 620 | 124 | 55 | 7 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 2.61 | 3.19 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 28 | 200 | 818 | 164 | 73 | 9 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 2.61 | 3.19 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jostin Florentino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | — | 3.93 | 24.0% | 15.8% | 390 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| David Perez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 95 |
| Jaden Hamm R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.82 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .273 | 4.78 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 83 | +0.96 | 3.82 | 182 | 91 |
| Javi Rivera R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 90 |
| Cory Lewis R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 89 |
| Griffin Canning R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 89 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | 4.96 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.64 | 4.32 | 292 | 88 |
| Austin Cates R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 88 |
| Osmer Morales R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .319 | 4.56 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 345 | +0.26 | 3.14 | 429 | 88 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 88 |
| Blake Money R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .281 | 4.05 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 121 | +0.52 | 3.53 | 224 | 88 |
| David Festa R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 17.0% | 302 | +0.08 | 3.66 | 405 | 88 |
| Ian Bedell R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 88 |
| Mason Hickman R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 88 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 88 |
| Kyle Scott R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 88 |
| Trevor Martin R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 88 |
| Nick Davila R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.89 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.07 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | +0.18 | 3.46 | 341 | 88 |
| Steven Zobac R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.27 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .332 | 3.78 | 18.4% | 11.7% | 162 | +0.51 | 3.27 | 253 | 88 |
| Cody Morris R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.68 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .362 | 2.90 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -0.78 | 2.23 | 256 | 88 |
| Zack Lee R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.52 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .293 | 5.37 | 11.6% | 2.7% | 93 | +1.85 | 3.52 | 175 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.9 | $27M | +$26M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +3.0 | $29M | +$28M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.9 | $29M | +$28M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +2.8 | $28M | +$23M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.6 | $27M | +$19M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $16M | $140M | +$124M | ||