Jostin Florentino

Jostin Florentino P South Bend Cubs

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%19.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—55

CMD3050

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	35	144	35	10	2	0%	2.7	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.6%	3.57	3.71	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	35	144	35	10	2	0%	2.7	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	1.4%	3.57	2.70	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	0.0%	2.06	2.58	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	10	7	35	136	40	10	0	70%	3.5	29.4%	7.4%	22.1%	0.0%	2.06	1.67	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	1.6%	2.43	3.27	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	16	14	81	340	101	25	3	88%	5.1	29.7%	7.4%	22.4%	0.9%	2.43	2.02	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	11	11	37	166	43	23	5	100%	3.4	21.6%	16.9%	4.7%	4.2%	4.86	5.70	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	CHC	10	10	57	240	47	21	6	100%	5.7	19.5%	8.9%	10.7%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
ROS	21	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	8.9%	10.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.45	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	CHC	—	—	94	406	90	44	11	—	—	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.60	4.93	+0.4
2026 FULL	21	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	19.5%	8.9%	10.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.07	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	CHC	12	12	60	252	52	21	7	100%	5.0	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.25	+0.2
2028	23	MLB	CHC	12	12	62	261	57	21	7	100%	5.2	21.7%	8.2%	13.6%	2.6%	4.21	4.13	+0.3
2029	24	MLB	CHC	11	11	63	268	60	21	7	100%	5.8	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	2.6%	4.11	4.05	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	CHC	11	11	64	271	62	21	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	2.6%	4.04	4.00	+0.5
2031	26	MLB	CHC	11	11	64	271	62	21	7	100%	5.8	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.6%	4.00	3.97	+0.5
2032	27	MLB	CHC	11	11	63	267	61	21	7	100%	5.7	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	2.7%	4.01	4.01	+0.4
2033	28	MLB	CHC	10	10	61	259	59	21	7	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	2.8%	4.06	4.10	+0.3
2034	29	MLB	CHC	10	10	58	247	56	21	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.9%	4.16	4.23	+0.2
2035	30	MLB	CHC	9	9	55	232	52	20	7	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.6%	13.6%	3.1%	4.31	4.41	+0.1
2036	31	MLB	CHC	9	9	51	217	47	19	7	100%	5.7	21.8%	9.0%	12.9%	3.3%	4.49	4.61	-0.0
2037	32	MLB	CHC	8	8	48	201	43	19	7	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.6%	4.70	4.83	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	CHC	6	6	29	122	25	10	3	100%	4.8	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.27	+0.1
2028	23	MLB	CHC	8	8	45	190	41	16	5	100%	5.6	21.7%	8.2%	13.6%	2.7%	4.23	4.15	+0.2
2029	24	MLB	CHC	9	9	53	224	50	18	6	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.07	+0.3
2030	25	MLB	CHC	10	10	57	241	55	19	6	100%	5.7	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	2.7%	4.06	4.02	+0.4
2031	26	MLB	CHC	10	10	59	249	57	20	7	100%	5.9	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.7%	4.02	3.99	+0.4
2032	27	MLB	CHC	10	10	59	249	57	20	7	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	2.7%	4.03	4.03	+0.4
2033	28	MLB	CHC	10	10	57	241	55	19	7	100%	5.7	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.12	+0.3
2034	29	MLB	CHC	9	9	56	236	53	20	7	100%	6.2	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+0.2
2035	30	MLB	CHC	9	9	52	220	49	19	7	100%	5.8	22.2%	8.6%	13.6%	3.2%	4.33	4.43	+0.1
2036	31	MLB	CHC	8	8	49	207	45	19	7	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.0%	12.9%	3.4%	4.51	4.63	-0.0
2037	32	MLB	CHC	8	8	45	190	41	18	7	100%	5.6	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.6%	4.72	4.85	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			96	96	561	2367	528	196	69	100%	5.8	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.9%	4.22	3.86	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	188	70	25	100%	5.8	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.9%	4.22	3.86	+3.6
Career	—			50	32	189	786	159	83	15	64%	3.8	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	1.9%	3.05	3.74	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			53	34	200	833	169	88	15	64%	3.8	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	1.9%	3.05	3.74	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jostin Florentino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	2.7%	—	4.14	21.6%	13.5%	185	-0.29	—	—	—
TJ Nichols R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.310	5.17	21.9%	14.5%	174	+1.21	3.96	245	89
Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	19.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.298	4.56	17.0%	8.2%	243	-0.26	4.30	318	89
Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	88
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	87
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	86
Peyton Remy R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.82	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.25	3.57	286	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP-	4.22	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	.293	5.23	15.4%	6.7%	157	+1.01	3.46	246	85
Tommy Bergjans R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	17.2%	8.1%	1.5%	.327	4.29	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.80	3.49	322	85
Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	85
Adam Leverett R 2027 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP-	3.26	20.4%	10.0%	1.1%	.274	4.43	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.17	3.26	376	85
Jarrod Cande R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.1%	7.3%	3.7%	.330	5.02	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.59	4.37	292	85
Ricky Castro R 2029 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	85
Lucas Elissalt R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP-	3.85	20.1%	11.0%	1.9%	.253	4.98	21.4%	9.2%	60	+1.13	3.85	149	85
Cale Lansville R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP-	3.95	15.1%	7.7%	2.1%	.325	5.03	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.08	3.95	113	85
Nick Dean R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP-	4.00	17.5%	8.1%	2.5%	.275	3.50	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.50	2.73	202	85
Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	84
Nick Fraze R 2028 · 4.68 FIP	23	SP-	4.68	18.8%	7.3%	4.1%	.271	4.64	18.1%	10.2%	162	-0.04	3.81	278	84
Zack Lee R 2028 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP-	3.41	19.2%	7.0%	1.9%	.293	5.18	14.7%	5.9%	130	+1.77	3.41	213	84
Jesus Lugo R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	7.11	19.8%	10.5%	45	+3.32	3.79	113	84
Bryce Cunningham R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	59	22.0%	8.3%	1.09	4.22
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57