Daury Vasquez — OGILVIE

Daury Vasquez P Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%19.6%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	10	8	27	126	13	24	1	80%	2.7	7.0%	23.8%	-16.8%	1.3%	4.67	6.25	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	10	8	27	126	13	24	1	80%	2.7	7.0%	23.8%	-16.8%	1.3%	4.67	6.25	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	10	8	27	126	13	24	1	80%	2.7	10.3%	19.0%	-8.7%	0.8%	4.67	5.29	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	6	40	171	45	21	0	55%	3.6	17.9%	15.4%	2.5%	0.0%	4.05	3.53	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	11	6	40	171	45	21	0	55%	3.6	17.9%	15.4%	2.5%	0.0%	4.05	3.53	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	11	6	40	171	45	21	0	55%	3.6	26.3%	12.3%	14.0%	0.0%	4.05	2.42	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	64	285	80	37	3	75%	4.0	19.5%	15.9%	3.6%	1.3%	3.80	4.17	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	64	285	80	37	3	75%	4.0	19.5%	15.9%	3.6%	1.3%	3.80	4.17	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	64	285	80	37	3	75%	4.0	28.1%	13.0%	15.1%	1.1%	3.80	2.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	18	18	60	278	54	37	10	100%	3.4	14.1%	15.9%	-1.8%	4.7%	8.50	6.51	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	18	18	60	278	54	37	10	100%	3.4	14.1%	15.9%	-1.8%	4.7%	8.50	6.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	ARI	4	4	13	53	15	6	1	100%	3.2	28.3%	11.3%	17.0%	1.9%	7.11	3.18	—
2026	20	A RAW	ARI	14	14	48	225	39	31	9	100%	3.4	17.3%	13.8%	3.6%	4.0%	8.87	5.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	62	262	54	38	7	100%	4.8	20.5%	14.6%	5.9%	2.7%	5.21	5.11	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	65	275	60	36	7	100%	5.0	21.7%	13.1%	8.6%	2.7%	4.93	4.79	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	68	285	64	34	8	100%	5.2	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.7%	4.71	4.57	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	69	293	68	33	8	100%	5.8	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.7%	4.54	4.43	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	70	296	70	33	8	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.0%	12.4%	2.6%	4.42	4.34	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	70	296	70	33	8	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.32	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	69	292	69	32	8	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.1%	12.6%	2.7%	4.36	4.36	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	67	283	67	32	8	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.2%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.44	+0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	64	270	63	31	8	100%	5.8	23.3%	11.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.58	+0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	31	131	27	19	3	100%	5.2	20.5%	14.6%	5.9%	2.6%	5.13	5.03	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	48	203	44	27	5	100%	5.3	21.7%	13.1%	8.6%	2.6%	4.85	4.71	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	57	241	54	29	6	100%	5.2	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	2.5%	4.63	4.49	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	62	262	60	30	7	100%	5.6	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.5%	4.46	4.35	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	64	270	63	30	7	100%	5.8	23.5%	11.0%	12.4%	2.5%	4.34	4.26	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	65	274	65	30	7	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.0%	12.7%	2.5%	4.28	4.24	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	66	279	66	31	7	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.1%	12.6%	2.5%	4.28	4.28	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	64	270	64	30	7	100%	5.8	23.5%	11.2%	12.3%	2.6%	4.33	4.36	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	60	29	7	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.4%	11.8%	2.8%	4.42	4.49	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	91	517	2182	502	254	56	100%	5.7	23.0%	11.7%	11.4%	2.6%	4.47	4.04	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	194	98	22	100%	5.7	23.0%	11.7%	11.4%	2.6%	4.47	4.04	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		55	44	191	860	134	146	18	80%	3.5	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	2.1%	5.46	5.10	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	46	200	899	140	152	19	80%	3.5	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	2.1%	5.46	5.10	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daury Vasquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	19.6%	16.7%	2.8%	—	4.82	21.6%	8.4%	195	-0.65	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	87
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	86
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	85
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	84
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	84
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	84
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	83
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	82
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	82
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	81
Wellington Aracena R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	18	SP	5.11	17.2%	15.8%	2.7%	.273	4.20	19.8%	3.0%	236	-0.91	3.20	304	81
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Jose Disla R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	20	SP	5.52	15.8%	13.4%	3.8%	.296	4.49	19.7%	8.8%	70	-1.03	3.61	139	80
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	80
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	80
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	64	22.7%	12.1%	1.05	4.65
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04