Alvin Veras

P DSL Athletics

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1446ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	17	ROKOAK	10	4	13	6.92	1.72	34.4%	13.1%	—	K 23.4% · BB 16.4% · FIP 3.20
2026	20	ROKOAK	12	11	50	3.81	3.38	14.4%	7.7%	—	K 9.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.22
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	17.2%	9.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	4	4	20	4.60	4.51	19.3%	8.9%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	6	6	30	4.43	4.33	20.6%	8.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMoises Castillo (age 19) · Jordany Ventura (age 19) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%17.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	10	4	13	61	21	8	0	40%	1.3	23.4%	16.4%	7.0%	0.0%	6.92	3.20	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	10	4	13	61	21	8	0	40%	1.3	34.4%	13.1%	21.3%	0.0%	6.92	1.72	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	11	50	209	30	16	2	92%	4.1	9.8%	9.6%	0.2%	1.3%	3.81	4.22	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	11	50	209	30	16	2	92%	4.1	9.8%	9.6%	0.2%	1.3%	3.81	4.22	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	12	11	50	209	30	16	2	92%	4.1	14.4%	7.7%	6.7%	1.0%	3.81	3.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	9.5%	7.7%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	41	173	33	15	5	100%	5.1	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.55	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	41	173	36	15	5	100%	5.1	20.6%	8.5%	12.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.37	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	41	173	37	14	5	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.35	4.27	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	39	166	36	14	5	100%	5.6	21.8%	8.2%	13.5%	2.8%	4.27	4.22	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	40	167	37	14	5	100%	5.6	21.9%	8.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.23	4.20	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	6	6	38	163	36	13	5	100%	6.4	21.9%	8.3%	13.7%	2.8%	4.23	4.23	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	20	84	16	8	2	100%	5.0	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.60	4.51	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	30	127	26	11	3	100%	5.0	20.6%	8.5%	12.0%	2.8%	4.43	4.33	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	34	144	31	12	4	100%	5.7	21.3%	8.3%	13.0%	2.7%	4.31	4.23	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	35	148	32	12	4	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.2%	13.5%	2.7%	4.23	4.18	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	36	152	33	12	4	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.2%	13.8%	2.7%	4.19	4.16	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	36	152	33	13	4	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.3%	13.7%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	190	804	171	67	22	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.30	3.87	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	180	70	23	100%	5.7	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.30	3.87	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		22	15	63	270	35	30	3	68%	2.8	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	1.0%	4.45	3.99	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	48	200	862	111	96	9	68%	2.8	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	1.0%	4.45	3.99	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Athletics · 50 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.22 (+0.84)K% 14.4% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.35%	—	×0.680	9.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.66%	—	×1.250	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Athletics · 13 IPFIP 1.85 → 3.20 (+1.35)K% 34.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.43%	—	×0.680	23.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.11%	—	×1.250	16.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.85 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alvin Veras (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	17.2%	9.5%	2.9%	—	4.40	20.4%	11.8%	123	-0.43	—	—	—
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	86
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	82
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	82
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	82
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	81
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	81
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	81
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	39	20.7%	8.5%	1.09	4.42
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*