Alvin Veras — OGILVIE

Alvin Veras P DSL Athletics

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%23.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	10	4	13	61	21	8	0	40%	1.3	23.4%	16.4%	7.0%	0.0%	6.92	3.20	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	10	4	13	61	21	8	0	40%	1.3	23.4%	16.4%	7.0%	0.0%	6.92	3.20	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	10	4	13	61	21	8	0	40%	1.3	34.4%	13.1%	21.3%	0.0%	6.92	1.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	11	50	209	30	16	2	92%	4.1	9.8%	9.6%	0.2%	1.3%	3.81	4.22	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	11	50	209	30	16	2	92%	4.1	9.8%	9.6%	0.2%	1.3%	3.81	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	OAK	12	11	50	209	30	16	2	92%	4.1	14.4%	7.7%	6.7%	1.0%	3.81	3.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	51	215	51	21	6	100%	4.6	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.32	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	54	226	56	21	7	100%	4.9	24.7%	9.1%	15.5%	2.9%	4.23	4.13	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	56	235	59	20	7	100%	5.6	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	2.8%	4.10	4.00	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	57	241	62	20	7	100%	5.7	25.8%	8.5%	17.4%	2.8%	3.99	3.92	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	58	244	64	20	7	100%	5.8	26.2%	8.3%	17.9%	2.8%	3.91	3.86	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	58	244	64	20	7	100%	5.8	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	2.8%	3.87	3.84	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	57	240	63	20	7	100%	6.3	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	2.8%	3.87	3.88	+0.7
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	25	106	25	10	3	100%	5.0	23.8%	9.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.28	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	39	165	41	15	5	100%	4.9	24.7%	9.1%	15.5%	2.8%	4.19	4.09	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	47	198	50	17	5	100%	5.2	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	2.8%	4.06	3.96	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	51	215	56	18	6	100%	5.7	25.8%	8.5%	17.4%	2.7%	3.95	3.88	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	53	224	59	19	6	100%	5.9	26.2%	8.3%	17.9%	2.7%	3.87	3.82	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	54	228	60	19	6	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.3%	18.1%	2.7%	3.83	3.80	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	54	228	60	19	6	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	2.8%	3.83	3.84	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	58	323	1362	350	117	38	100%	5.6	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.8%	3.97	3.54	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	217	73	24	100%	5.6	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.8%	3.97	3.54	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		22	15	63	270	35	30	3	68%	2.8	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	1.0%	4.45	3.99	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	48	200	862	111	96	9	68%	2.8	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	1.0%	4.45	3.99	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alvin Veras (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	23.4%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.15	24.6%	15.4%	160	-0.32	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	88
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	84
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	78
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	77
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	77
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Miguel Díaz R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	.365	4.40	19.4%	8.2%	233	+1.00	2.18	573	77
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	77
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	77
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	76
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	76
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	76
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	76
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	76
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	76
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	76
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	50	25.5%	8.7%	1.10	4.05
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04