Justin Chambers — OGILVIE

Justin Chambers P Great Lakes Loons

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 212 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%23.7%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	4	3	4	20	3	5	0	75%	0.9	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	17.18	5.00	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	4	3	4	20	3	5	0	75%	0.9	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	17.18	5.00	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	4	3	4	20	3	5	0	75%	0.9	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	17.18	5.55	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	35	150	54	20	1	5%	1.7	25.4%	16.2%	9.2%	0.8%	3.09	3.44	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	35	150	54	20	1	5%	1.7	25.4%	16.2%	9.2%	0.8%	3.09	3.44	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	1	35	150	54	20	1	5%	1.7	36.0%	13.3%	22.7%	0.7%	3.09	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	1	51	247	67	45	4	3%	1.3	20.9%	21.0%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.00	5.10	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	1	51	247	67	45	4	3%	1.3	20.9%	21.0%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.00	5.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	LAD	39	1	51	247	67	45	4	3%	1.3	27.1%	18.2%	8.9%	1.6%	6.00	4.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAD	50	0	52	221	53	28	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.69	4.61	-0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAD	52	0	55	232	58	27	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.46	4.33	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAD	54	0	57	241	62	25	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.5%	15.1%	2.7%	4.27	4.14	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	58	247	64	24	7	0%	1.0	26.1%	9.9%	16.2%	2.7%	4.12	4.01	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	59	250	66	24	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.7%	4.00	3.92	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	59	250	67	24	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.5%	17.2%	2.7%	3.94	3.90	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	58	246	66	24	7	0%	1.0	26.7%	9.6%	17.1%	2.7%	3.94	3.94	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAD	25	0	26	110	26	14	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.68	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAD	38	0	40	169	42	19	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.4%	13.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.39	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAD	46	0	48	203	52	21	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.5%	15.1%	2.8%	4.33	4.20	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	52	220	57	22	6	0%	1.0	26.1%	9.9%	16.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.07	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAD	51	0	54	228	60	22	6	0%	1.1	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.8%	4.06	3.98	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAD	52	0	55	232	62	22	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.5%	17.2%	2.8%	4.00	3.96	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAD	52	0	55	232	62	22	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.6%	17.1%	2.9%	4.00	4.00	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		316	0	331	1399	363	143	40	0%	1.0	26.0%	10.2%	15.8%	2.8%	4.21	3.75	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	219	86	24	0%	1.1	26.0%	10.2%	15.8%	2.8%	4.21	3.75	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		64	5	90	417	93	81	6	8%	1.4	22.2%	19.5%	2.8%	1.5%	5.32	4.50	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	11	200	930	207	181	14	8%	1.4	22.2%	19.5%	2.8%	1.5%	5.32	4.50	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Chambers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	23.7%	14.5%	2.8%	—	4.35	24.9%	13.4%	164	-0.53	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	84
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.01	223	83
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	83
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	83
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	83
Yokelvin Reyes L 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SU	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	1.7%	.293	4.48	16.0%	4.1%	166	+0.54	3.50	221	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	81
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	79
Daniel Juarez L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	20	SU	4.75	25.6%	19.2%	2.5%	.170	4.09	21.8%	9.3%	131	-0.66	3.68	221	79
Oddanier Mosqueda L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	20	SU	3.74	22.8%	11.1%	2.1%	.308	4.10	25.7%	14.1%	106	+0.36	3.05	433	78
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	21	SU	4.55	25.7%	21.3%	1.7%	.389	5.41	22.7%	0.2%	76	+0.86	2.58	155	78
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	77
James Ziemba L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	22	SU	3.73	18.3%	12.5%	1.1%	.309	5.16	11.7%	-0.7%	78	+1.43	3.73	110	77
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	77
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	76
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	76
Chazz Martinez L 2023 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.43	20.5%	7.7%	135	-0.33	3.09	199	76
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	25.7%	10.6%	1.06	4.23
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84