Anfernny Reyes — OGILVIE

Anfernny Reyes P Wilson Warbirds

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139147vR 156

ERA6.45

FIP6.45

K%18.1%

BB%23.6%

K-BB%-5.5%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	11	11	47	207	48	24	0	100%	4.2	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	0.0%	1.54	3.60	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	11	11	47	207	48	24	0	100%	4.2	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	0.0%	1.54	2.59	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	15	0	30	129	41	14	3	0%	2.0	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	3.6%	4.85	4.98	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	15	0	30	129	41	14	3	0%	2.0	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	3.6%	4.85	4.98	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	15	0	30	129	41	14	3	0%	2.0	31.8%	10.9%	20.9%	2.3%	4.85	3.07	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	32	145	41	26	1	0%	1.4	20.2%	21.4%	-1.3%	0.8%	2.23	4.56	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	32	145	41	26	1	0%	1.4	20.2%	21.4%	-1.3%	0.8%	2.23	4.56	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	32	145	41	26	1	0%	1.4	28.3%	17.9%	10.3%	0.7%	2.23	3.38	—
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	35	0	45	214	53	40	2	0%	1.3	18.3%	22.1%	-3.7%	1.0%	4.43	4.90	—
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	35	0	45	214	53	40	2	0%	1.3	18.3%	22.1%	-3.7%	1.0%	4.43	4.90	—
2025	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	35	0	45	214	53	40	2	0%	1.3	24.8%	18.7%	6.1%	0.9%	4.43	4.00	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	11	0	22	83	31	7	1	0%	2.0	27.6%	10.0%	17.7%	1.6%	2.05	2.89	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	11	0	22	83	31	7	1	0%	2.0	27.6%	10.0%	17.7%	1.6%	2.05	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIL	11	0	22	83	31	7	1	0%	2.0	37.3%	8.4%	28.9%	1.2%	2.05	1.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	44	0	46	195	38	39	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	20.1%	-0.7%	2.7%	6.02	5.88	-0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	45	0	48	201	41	36	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	17.8%	2.4%	2.7%	5.67	5.51	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	22	0	23	97	19	20	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	20.1%	-0.7%	2.7%	6.02	5.88	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	31	0	33	139	28	25	4	0%	1.1	20.2%	17.8%	2.4%	2.7%	5.67	5.51	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	47	44	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	18.7%	1.1%	2.7%	5.81	5.28	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	157	21	0%	1.1	19.9%	18.7%	1.1%	2.7%	5.81	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		95	11	175	778	152	134	9	12%	1.8	19.5%	17.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.03	4.29	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	13	200	887	173	153	11	12%	1.8	19.5%	17.2%	2.3%	1.2%	3.03	4.29	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anfernny Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.45	18.1%	23.6%	2.7%	—	5.69	19.8%	0.9%	94	-0.76	—	—	—
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	83
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	83
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	82
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	81
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	80
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Oriel Castro L 2023 · 6.44 FIP	22	SU	6.44	16.0%	21.3%	3.6%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	129	78
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	77
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	77
Bryan Warzek L 2019 · 5.92 FIP	22	SW	5.92	17.7%	24.4%	2.2%	.328	6.74	20.2%	1.9%	73	+0.82	1.91	138	76
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	76
Alexuan Vega L 2021 · 6.67 FIP	22	SU	6.67	14.4%	23.5%	3.3%	.367	5.88	9.7%	-4.8%	53	-0.79	5.05	111	75
Johan Simon L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	22	SU	6.17	14.6%	15.4%	4.3%	.341	3.78	19.9%	7.2%	114	-2.39	3.45	177	75
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	74
Francis Beriguete L 2021 · 6.05 FIP	21	SU	6.05	20.8%	27.7%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	101	74
Joe Jacques L 2018 · 5.61 FIP	23	SU	5.61	12.1%	22.2%	1.3%	.265	4.00	18.7%	6.9%	113	-1.61	2.89	356	74
Denny Roman L 2021 · 5.55 FIP	22	SU	5.55	15.7%	16.7%	3.0%	.393	4.32	17.7%	4.6%	49	-1.23	3.24	109	74
Diorys Guerrero L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	22	SU	5.78	14.8%	24.5%	1.5%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	129	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	19.3%	20.5%	1.05	6.04
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99